The Premier League is more compelling than ever after Arsenal’s defeat last weekend tightened the race at the top. The season is nearing its halfway point, and although there’s still a long road ahead, several trends appear likely to hold through the finish.
One thing already seems clear: we’re headed for a new champion. Liverpool hasn’t been able to climb out of its crisis. The defending champions are drifting mid-table, and it now looks extremely unlikely they’ll be able to retain the title they captured so convincingly just over seven months ago.
Polymarket, a marketplace that blends traditional financial mechanisms with cutting-edge prediction systems, allows users to do predict who will win the Premier League. So, let's take a look at some of those predictions.
English Premier League Champion Odds, Predictions
Emi Buendía’s stoppage-time strike secured a 2–1 win for Aston Villa over Arsenal and tightened the race at the top. Even so, the Gunners remain league leaders and still hold the strongest title odds (56%), as they chase their first championship in more than 22 years.
Manchester City has been the biggest beneficiary of Arsenal’s slip. After an uneven start, Pep Guardiola’s side is slowly rounding back into form. City has won four of its past five league matches, climbed to second place — just two points off the top — and now also sits second in the odds at 33%.
Aston Villa deserves another mention. Powered by goals and momentum, Villa sits third both in the table and in the market at 3%. Seven straight wins across all competitions have thrown Unai Emery’s side into the conversation, though their attention is also focused on the Europa League.
Just one week ago, Chelsea’s title probability was more than double its current 3%. However, the Blues have managed only two points from their past three matches and plunged from title contention to fifth place, exposing the inconsistency that has defined the club in recent seasons.
Far behind — and surprisingly so — Liverpool has fallen into a dramatic slump. The Reds now hold just a 2% chance of repeating as champions. Arne Slot, once hailed as the coach who delivered the title in his first season, is suddenly facing scrutiny after winning only three of the past 10 matches — alongside a growing conflict involving superstar Mohamed Salah.
The crisis hasn’t spared Manchester United either. Once again, United is looking up at the rest of the contenders from well below. Sitting in 12th place, they still retain a generous 1% chance — more due to history than current reality, as flaws across the lineup and rising doubts surrounding manager Ruben Amorim continue to define their season.
What is Polymarket?
Different than a traditional sportsbook, Polymarket allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, and elections.
