Updated Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview, Best Bets, Expert Tips : Can Mohamed Salah, Reds Down Karim Benzema, La Liga Side in Champions League Final?
Photos courtesy of Getty Images. Pictured: Karim Benzema of Real Madrid and and Mohamed Salah of Liverpool.
- Premier League giant Liverpool faces La Liga champion Real Madrid in Saturday’s Champions League final in France.
- The Reds, who are +105 moneyline favorites to win the trophy, face determined underdogs in Karim Benzema and Los Blancos.
- Check out Pond’s full breakdown of the match below, plus the latest odds and his three best bets.
Updated Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Odds
|Real Madrid Odds||+250|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-135 / +105)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Saturday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Well, it all comes down to this moment.
Champions League glory is on the line Saturday when Premier League giant Liverpool take on La Liga champion Real Madrid in the much-anticipated final at Stade de France in Saint-Denis, located just north of the Paris.
The Reds, led by a vengeful Mohamed Salah, go up against Karim Benzema and their Spanish counterparts in a star-studded soccer showcase. Salah and his teammates reached the championship by knocking out Spanish side Villarreal with a convincing 5-2 aggregate scoreline.
As for Real Madrid, things were far less easier. The club needed come-from-behind rallies against Ligue 1 champion Paris Saint-Germain in the Round of 16, Chelsea in the quarterfinals and EPL champion Manchester City in the semifinals to book its spot in the championship.
Oddsmakers at BetMGM have listed Liverpool as the current +105 moneyline favorite, with Real Madrid checking in at +250 on the three-way line. The draw sits at long +260 odds, with the total set at 2.5 goals. As for the “To Lift The Trophy” odds, the Reds are solid -160 favorites.
Let’s see where we can find some betting value ahead of this showdown.
Swan Song for Mané at Liverpool?
To say the Reds’ offense was electric during the campaign would be a true understatement. Manager Jürgen Klopp watched his side score 94 goals (2.47 per match) on 89.2 expected goals and concede just 26 (0.68/game) on 34.2 xGA across 38 fixtures, according to fbref.com.
The club, which scored at least two goals in 12 of its last 15 matches overall, was brilliant in UCL play. Through 12 outings, the Reds notched a 10-1-1 (W-L-D) record and scored at least twice in 11 of those games. More impressive is the fact that they tallied three goals or more in six contests, including a three-goal effort against Villarreal last time out.
Leading the charge with Salah (eight goals/two assists) has been Sadio Mané, who has recorded five goals and an assist in 12 matches. The 30-year-old Senegal international has been the Robin to Salah’s Batman in this special partnership, but this might be the final time the pair step on the pitch together with reports surfacing Mané could be headed to Bayern Munich.
— B/R Football (@brfootball) May 27, 2022
It would be a crushing blow for Klopp and the Reds, especially because of how dangerous this offense is with Mané wreaking nonstop havoc around the pitch in both domestic and European competitions.
Yet, for as good as Liverpool’s offense has been, their defense has been just as strong. The Reds only conceded more than one xG once in six knockout games, which came in a 3-3 draw against Liverpool at Anfield when that tie had already been wrapped up in the EPL side’s 3-1 win in the reverse fixture.
In the 2018 final, the Liverpool talisman was forced to leave when he took a nasty challenge from former Real Madrid defender Sergio Ramos that resulted in him separating his shoulder. Salah left the field in tears and proceeded to watch the Reds go on to suffer a 3-1 loss in Kyiv. So, it goes without saying, this latest clash with Los Blancos is very personal for Salah.
Can Real Madrid Find Magic One More Time?
To say manager Carlo Ancelotti and his club have been pulling rabbit after rabbit out of their hats on the road to the finale would be a true understatement.
This outfit was dead and buried more than once in the knockout rounds, but found a way to march on via Benzema’s heroics and some special force carrying the club when it seemed all hope was lost on several occasions.
Obviously, Benzema has been unreal for Real Madrid. The French talisman has scored a stunning 15 goals in 11 UCL matches. He racked up 27 goals and 12 assists for the side in La Liga play as well. Yet, for as great as he has been, Los Blancos’ chances for one more monumental win might land on the shoulders — or feet for that matter — of Brazilian wunderkind Vinícuius Júnior.
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) May 25, 2022
Vini Jr. will create all sorts of problems for Liverpool on the left wing if outside back Trent Alexander-Arnold gets caught too forward on the attack. Despite all of his pure talent, the defender struggles to get back in transition time and time again, leaving the back line susceptible to an opponents’ counterattack.
This is an accomplished offense Vini Jr. and Benzema will lead into the battle. Los Blancos scored 80 goals (2.11 per match) and yielded just 31 (0.82 per outing) in 38 contests. When it comes to the advanced metrics, they were slightly lower (74.3 xG/47.0 xGA) than their counterparts.
However, things were a little sloppy in UCL action. Sure, Real Madrid racked up a whopping 14 goals in six knockout-phase events, but their defense was mediocre at best. Los Blancos failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six UCL tilts, plus conceded 10.8 xGA for 1.8 xGA average across those affairs.
Bottom line, Real Madrid’s issues in the back should be a real cause for concern. My gut feeling tells me the wear-and-tear of a season that has featured close to 60 matches overall has finally caught up to the club. If so, that’s going to be a problem.
BJ Cunningham’s UCL Projections
Betting Analysis & Picks
I was talking with my colleague, BJ Cunningham, on Friday morning about this match and said, “Why does Real Madrid worry me?” And his response was simple:
“There’s some type of magic happening with them that I cannot explain.”
Well, BJ’s right. I’m not going to deny the fact that there must be something special in the Madrid water for Los Blancos to pull off multiple dramatic wins on their path to the finale. Yet, for all the gaudy goals/xG numbers, I simply cannot get over the downright brutal defensive stats casting a dark cloud over the club.
So, when you’re playing that poorly entering a match of this magnitude and about to face an offense as potent as the one Liverpool possesses, it doesn’t generate a ton of confidence in Los Blancos’ chances for me.
However, Real Madrid has displayed nonstop mojo throughout this competition and that’s enough for me to avoid taking Liverpool to win outright in regulation time.
That said, I’m backing the Reds via To Lift the Trophy wager at -160 odds as my top pick.
I know, I know. That’s a lot of juice and I wouldn’t go any higher on this number, but Liverpool loves to not get things done inside 90 minutes in major finals. The Reds went to penalties with Chelsea in both the EFL Cup and FA Cup final, winning shootouts in dramatic fashion.
So, I’m just being a tad cautious here. I do recommend keeping an eye on this number to dip in the opening half, which would happen if Real Madrid strikes first or things stay even deep into the opening half. And if this number takes a sizable hit, I will be making another wager on it.
If you’re looking for a couple of wagers with better value, take a swing on a Single Game Parlay pairing Both Teams To Score (Yes) with the total staying under 5.5 goals at -115 odds. I don’t think either side is going to come out overly aggressive, but I can’t foresee either being shut out across 90 minutes.
And although at least one team has failed to record a goal in three consecutive UCL finals, I don’t believe that will be the case and actually find value on the total clearing 2.5 goals. However, I like the aforementioned wager even more, with the belief six combined goals happening is quite the longshot scenario.
"We have a score to settle."
Mohamed Salah wants revenge against Real Madrid 👀
— GOAL News (@GoalNews) May 27, 2022
Finally, I’m jumping on Salah to score anytime at +145 odds at FanDuel as well. I recommend sniffing around the shops to see who has the best number, but they’re all likely going to be in the +125 to +130 neighborhood. So, you’re getting a sweet price on this prop bet at this moment.
Bottom line, Salah is arguably the best player in the world. I don’t care that he hasn’t put up the same numbers he did the first half of season. The man has been waiting for this moment for four years, and a motivated Salah — with a massive chip on that now-healthy shoulder — is going to be another animal.
When the matchup between Liverpool and Real Madrid was set, I immediately went looking for odds tied to the Egyptian international scoring a goal. And getting this price is good enough for me to jump on this wager.
Picks: Liverpool To Lift Trophy (-160)
Single Game Parlay: Both Teams To Score — Yes & Total Under 5.5 Goals (-115)
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) To Score Anytime (+145)