Wednesday MLS Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Vancouver vs. Montreal (Sept. 16)


Omar Vega/Getty Images. Pictured: Montreal’s Thierry Henry.

Sep 16, 2020, 07:25 PM EDT
  • There is plenty on the line in Wednesday night's Vancouver vs. Montreal MLS matchup.
  • Jeremy Pond provides betting angles for tonight's match, including two value bets worth making.

Vancouver vs. Montreal Odds

Vancouver Odds +235 [BET NOW]
Montreal Odds +108 [BET NOW]
Draw +250 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-141/+105) [BET NOW]
Time 9:30 p.m. ET
TV TSN 1/5

Odds updated as of Tuesday at 11:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

There is more than just Canadian pride on the line Wednesday when Montreal faces Vancouver, highlighting Major League Soccer’s midweek card.

To say this is the Impact’s most important match of the season would be an understatement. If Montreal secures the victory, it would send the club to the Canadian Championship title match. The winner of that finale earns a coveted spot in next season’s CONCACAF Champions League tournament.

On the other side, playing the role of spoiler has to be the motivating factor for Vancouver entering this showdown. The Whitecaps, who have lost any chance of playing for the Canadian Championship, need a win or draw to thwart Montreal’s dream. If one of those scenarios happens, Toronto FC would play for the Canadian Championship instead.

This showdown will mark the second time in four days these foes will meet at BC Place in Vancouver. On Saturday, Montreal rolled to a 4-2 road triumph.

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Looking at the data and numbers, Vancouver finds itself near the bottom of the league in all statistical categories. The Whitecaps sit on 7.3 expected goals and a shocking 10.7 expected goals against for a -3.4 xGDiff number, along with a -0.49 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

On the other side, Montreal isn’t much better and has similar numbers to that of its Canadian foe in all categories (8.2 xGF/11.5 xGA for -3.3 xGDiff and -0.47 xGDiff/90), which signals the possibility of another wide-open confrontation.

With everything in mind, I am backing the total to go over the number and both teams to score in the match.

Montreal can’t afford to sit around and wait for the match to come its way, which should have manager Thierry Henry’s squad on its front foot from the outset in search of an early goal.

As for Vancouver, the club has too much pride to let Montreal walk out of its house with a win and Canadian Championship berth. I expect the Whitecaps to put up a fight and give the Impact’s defense fits when opportunities present themselves.

If you’re looking for a side, I would take a swing on Montreal. When in doubt, play the side that needs the result the most. In this case, that’s Montreal.

The Bets: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-141); Both Teams To Score — Yes (-167)

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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