Download the App Image

Premier League Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our 4 Midweek Best Bets, Including Crystal Palace vs. Brentford

Premier League Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our 4 Midweek Best Bets, Including Crystal Palace vs. Brentford article feature image
Credit:

Joe Prior/Visionhaus via Getty Images. Pictured: Brentford standout Josh Dasilva.

Our first midweek Premier League slate of the season takes place this week, with games running from Tuesday through Thursday for all 20 teams..

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through another set of contests with their best bets on the card.

The pair, which is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the English top flight each week, delivering their favorite picks. They’ll also provide their individual model projections for every EPL match.

If you’d like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.


Cunningham’s Model Projections


Dabbundo’s Model Projections


Crystal Palace vs. Brentford

Crystal Palace Odds +105
Brentford Odds +260
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -130)
Day | Time Tuesday | 2:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch Peacock Premium
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Through four games, Brentford is sixth in the EPL in expected goals and has finished its chances better than every other team.

I don’t expect either of those facts to continue when you consider the Bees were a bottom-half attack last season and didn’t make any additions that would point toward an increase in performance. They have regression coming offensively and struggled to score on the road in the previous campaign.

Brentford also relies heavily on set pieces to generate chances, but Crystal Palace has conceded the fifth-fewest shots this season in dead-ball situations. When you consider the Eagles’ opponents to date — Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City — it’s impressive they defended set plays as well as they did.

While I expect Brentford to struggle, this match represents a change for Crystal Palace as well. Wilfried Zaha is unlikely to play and he’s a major part of the offense. Also, the Eagles will be asked to break down a more defensive side that will cede possession. Brentford has played open games with Fulham, Everton and Manchester United, but that’s not really Crystal Palace’s style.

My projections show value on the total staying under the number, with goals likely being be hard to come by in a match that featured two scoreless draws and less than two xG combined in each meeting last season.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-118) | FanDuel

Bournemouth vs. Wolves

Bournemouth Odds +260
Wolves Odds -110
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -135)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch Peacock Premium
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Aston Villa was projected to be right around 10th in the league and opened at a similar price at Bournemouth just three weeks ago.

The Cherries have since been embarrassed by three of the league’s best — Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal — by a combined 16-0 margin. Despite that, it’s quite the market overreaction to have Wolverhampton as an even-money moneyline road favorite.

By my power ratings, Wolves are the 15th-best team in the league and not good enough to be this big of a road favorite against anyone. They have failed to create more than 1.1 xG in any game this season.

Fulham gave Wolves 58 percent of the ball and the latter managed just seven total shots in that match. Leeds United also gave up a lot of possession to Wolverhampton and it was unable to produce from that situation.

Bournemouth is really bad — clearly the league’s worst team — but it won’t continue to underperform xG on defense this poorly. The extreme scorelines against dominant teams shows the Cherries are probably getting relegated, but they were at least competitive at home against Aston Villa on opening day.

My projections put Bournemouth -at 145 to get a point in this match, so I’d back the club getting +0.5 goals via the Asian Handicap at -140 odds or better to get a result.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Bournemouth +0.5 (-140 or better) | DraftKings

The must-have app for Soccer bettors

The best soccer betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

Arsenal Odds -225
Aston Villa Odds +625
Draw +350
Over/Under 2.5 (-145 / +105)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch Peacock Premium
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Aston Villa has been poor offensively this season, which isn’t shocking news. The Viillans’ numbers — 3.8 xG and 12 shots per 90 minutes — are bad. And if you throw out the match against Everton, they haven’t  created a big scoring chance.

Villa created only 0.4 xG off nine shots at home against West Ham United, which is down three centre backs at the moment. Since manager Steven Gerrard took over last November, the club has only averaged 1.18 xG per match under him. The Villans have only 20 big scoring chances in 31 matches as well.

Now, Villa is going up against an Arsenal’s defense, which has conceded just a combined three xG in four matches overall.

Arsenal has been flying offensively, but some regression is coming. The Gunners have scored 11 goals off 8.6 xG so far. This is another match, similar to the tilts against Bournemouth and Fulham, where Arsenal is going to have to break down a low block because Aston Villa sets up as one of the league’s heaviest counterattacking teams.

*(Graphic via infogol.net)

These two sides played toward the end of last season. On one occasion, Arsenal was coming off a 2-0 midweek loss to Liverpool, but still earned a 1-0 victory. Aston Villa only created 0.4 xG, eight shots and only 17 touches in Arsenal’s penalty area in the defeat.

So, when you add in the fact Diego Carlos and Tyrone Mings are out, that’s going to probably make Aston Villa play ultra conservative and compact. 

I only have 2.33 goals projected for this match, so I like the value we’re getting on the total staying under 2.5 goals at +110 odds.

Cunningham’s Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+110) | Bet365

Liverpool vs. Newcastle Odds

Liverpool Odds -300
Newcastle Odds +825
Draw +450
Over/Under 3.5 (+115 / -160)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Cunningham: I don’t really care that Liverpool beat Bournemouth in a 9-0 rout. What I’m more concerned about from a Newcastle United perspective is its ability to play through pressure.

Newcastle was dead last in Offensive PPDA from the January transfer window last season. Through four matches, the Magpies are at 10.2 compared to last season when they were at 7.5 overall. However, they’ve played two of the worst pressing teams in Wolverhampton and Nottingham Forest. Brighton & Hove Albion had a PPDA of 6.2 and Manchester City was at 6.8 in the metric. 

Even though Liverpool hasn’t had Thiago in its lineup, the club is still No. 1 in the category in the English top flight.

We know all about Liverpool’s injuries, but the Newcastle list is growing as well. On Wednesday, Bruno Guimares, Allen Saint-Maxmin, Callum Wilson and likely Aleksander Isak will miss out, so where are goals coming from for Newcastle?

Also since the January transfer window last season, Newcastle has faced six Big Six sides and only created 5.8 xG in those matches, while allowing 12.6 xG in the process.

One of those games was against the Reds, where the favorites beat it in a 1-0 shutout at St. James Park. The box score told an even bigger dominant effort, with Liverpool finishing with a 2.3-0.2 xG edge. The Reds also outshot them by a whopping 24-4 margin.

I have the Liverpool spread projected at -1.74 goals, so I find plenty of value on the club giving -1.5 goals at -114 odds. 

Cunningham’s Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (-114) | Bet365

How would you rate this article?