Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our Best Bets From Matches, Including Leeds vs. Spurs (Feb. 25-27)

The Premier League has reached the stretch run and the races for the title, top four and relegation are drastically starting heat up.

On Wednesday, Burnley pulled off a huge upset against Tottenham that drastically improved its chances of survival, and in turn, hurt Spurs' chances at finishing inside the top four in the standings.

This weekend, we have a slightly shortened slate, as Liverpool and Chelsea are facing off in the EFL Cup final to highlight the Sunday card. There aren't a lot of big matches, with West Ham United facing Wolves being the only top-eight battle, but every contest is important for positioning in the table.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Leeds vs. Spurs

All I can see in this match is chaos, which is typical with games involving Leeds United, but especially with fixtures involving Tottenham of late. The latter side's last six contests are averaging more than 3.5 expected goals. 

Defensively, Leeds is an absolute mess. During their last nine matches, the Peacocks are conceding on average 2.50 xG per game. They’re now last in npxG allowed, 16th in shots conceded per 90 minutes, and 15th in big scoring chances yielded this season.

That doesn't bode well against a Tottenham offense that has been ripping teams apart on the counterattack under manager Antonio Conte. Spurs are averaging 2.10 xG per match with him in charge, creating 30 big scoring chances in his 14 contests at the helm overall.

These two sides have faced off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Conte’s second match in charge, with Spurs walking away with a 2-1 win. The xG battle was pretty indicative of the final scoreline, as Tottenham held a 2.0-1.1 xG edge, but the Peacocks did have Kalvin Phillips, their best midfielder, for that match. So, his recent absence is a big part of why Leeds has struggled.

Offensively, Leeds have been pretty good lately. In their last nine matches, the Peacocks are averaging 1.44 xG per game, while Tottenham has been really shaky defensively in their last seven contests, conceding 9.6 expected goals.

I have 3.28 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on total clearing three goals at +110 and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (+110)

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Brentford vs. Newcastle

We’ve reached the bottom of the market for Brentford, as it's barely favored over a relegation side at home. Now, over its seven-match winless streak, the club has lost by a combined score of 16-4, which looks bad. However, they’ve only lost the xG battle by a 11.7-7.5 magin, so it’s not as bad as it seems.

It’s almost night and day how much Brentford plays at home versus on the road. At the Brentford Community Stadium, the Bees have a +4.2 xGDiff versus a -7.9 xGDiff on the road, per fbref.com. This is a really good matchup for them to end this winless streak against a injury riddled Newcastle side. 

The Magpies are coming into this match without Kierian Trippier, Callum Wilson and Matt Ritchie. Additionally, Allan Saint-Maximin and Ryan Fraser are both questionable to play. Since the January transfer window ended, Newcastle’s performances have improved, though.

However, Newcastle is still struggling to play through pressure. In its last five matches, the club's Offensive PPDA was 7.93, which is dead last in the English top flight during that time frame, per understat.com. So, Brentford’s frenetic pressing should be able to have a lot of success. 

It also looks like leading goal-scorer Ivan Toney could be making a return, which would be a huge boost for the Bees.

I have Brentford projected as a pretty significant favorite here, so I love the Bees via the Draw No Bet wager at -130 odds.

Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (-130)

Crystal Palace vs. Burnley 

This number is way too low for Crystal Palace on home soil at Selhurst Park.

Burnley has been playing a little better of late Obviously, the 3-0 win against Brighton & Hove Albion was massive, but this side still has one of the worst defenses in the league, ranking last in shots allowed per 90 minutes and box entries conceded, per fbref.com.

When these clubs met the first time, it was a chaotic 3-3 draw at Turf Moor, but Crystal Palace was by far the better side in holding the xG goals edge by a 2.0-1.3 advantage and controlling 61% of the possession.

The biggest advantage for Crystal Palace is the home and road splits for each team. Crystal Palace currently sits with its +7.7 xGDiff at home, while Burnley has a -10.5 xGDiff on the road.

Now, there are a couple of concerns for Crystal Palace in this matchup. First, the Eagles aren't that great at defending crosses, allowing the fourth most per 90 minutes in the league, while Burnley is second in crosses completed into the penalty area. Second, Crystal Palace has allowed 12 goals off set pieces, which is really bad when facing Burnley. 

However, with all that being said, this price is still too low for Crystal Palace, which I have projected at -153 odds. So, I love the Eagles to take all three points at -110 odds and will make them my top pick.

Pick: Crystal Palace ML (-110)