Sunderland AFC (4-2-2) and Chelsea (4-2-2) will face off today at 10:00 a.m. EDT at Stamford Bridge in London, England.
Chelsea is favored at a -275 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-145o / +105u) goals.
Let's get into my Sunderland vs. Chelsea prediction.
Sunderland vs. Chelsea Prediction
Pick: Chelsea -1.25 Asian handicap
My Sunderland vs. Chelsea best bet is on Chelsea to win by two goals.
Sunderland vs. Chelsea Odds
| Sunderland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 2.5 -145o / 105u | +700 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 2.5 -145o / 105u | -275 |
Sunderland vs. Chelsea Pick
Pick: Chelsea -1.25 Asian handicap (+108)
When playing away, Sunderland averages just 0.25 goals per 90. Regis Le Bris’ team failed to score in three out of four away games, only managing a single goal against Ange Postecoglou’s Nottingham Forest.
Interestingly, when analyzing all three newly promoted clubs, there have been only two victories from 12 combined away games in 2025/26. Sunderland’s one goal scored is the lowest output of all three of the Premier League’s newest clubs.
This is a continuing trend. Last season’s newly promoted and eventually relegated trio lost 38 of 57 away games.
Sunderland’s primary focus is on its defensive ability, as seen in several defensive metrics. The Black Cats average the second most clearances per match, and are third in saves. At the same time, Sunderland ranks bottom for primary offensive metrics, such as shots on target per match, big chances, and expected goals.
Our internal data projection model, BETSiE, forecasts a goal output of 0.74xG for the visitors. Chelsea has been handed 1.98xG in BETSiE’s Chelsea vs Sunderland predictions.
Chelsea might rotate its large squad following the Champions League match against Ajax, but still run out comfortable winners on Saturday.
Sunderland vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Sunderland | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 13.2% | 19.3% | 67.5% |
Projected Total Goals
| Sunderland | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 0.74 | 2.72 | 1.98 |
Sunderland vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
Chelsea welcomes Sunderland to Stamford Bridge, aiming to maintain momentum following their recent 3-0 victory over Nottingham Forest.
Five points behind the leader, Arsenal, Chelsea’s main issue at the moment is its disciplinary record. It could be down to inexperience, given that the Blues have one of the youngest squads in the league. However, four red cards in six matches are way too many for a team that hopes to challenge for the title.
The best time to play against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge this season will be straight after Champions League exploits on a Wednesday evening. However, regardless of scheduling, this will be one of Sunderland’s most challenging assignments of the campaign. The hosts’ 1x2 market price of 1.42/ -238 in the Chelsea vs Sunderland odds recognizes the away team’s daunting task.
Historically, this hasn’t been a kind venue for Sunderland, with the club losing 13 of 16 matches. With that in mind, plus Chelsea’s ability to rotate following midweek excursions, the bookmakers have handed Sunderland a +1.25 Asian handicap to protect.
Sunderland vs. Chelsea Projected Starting Lineups
Sunderland
Roefs; Hume, Mukiele, Ballard, Reinildo; Rigg, Xhaka, Sadiki; Talbi, Isidor, Le Fee.
Chelsea
Sanchez; James, Tosin, Chalobah, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Neto, Estevao, Garnacho; Pedro.
