Barcelona (7-1-1) and Real Madrid (8-1-0) will face off today at 11:15 a.m. EDT at Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain.
Real Madrid is favored at a -102 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (-129o / +101u) goals, but there’s another way to wager on this match and make real money in all 50 states — via Kalshi, which blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets.
Let’s take a look at Kalshi’s odds and see if there’s any value. And remember, you can use the promo code below to claim $10 when signing up as a new user.
Without further ado, let's get into my Real Madrid vs. Barcelona prediction.
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Prediction
Pick: Barcelona to Win
My Barcelona vs. Real Madrid best play is Barcelona to win outright.
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Kalshi Pick, Betting Analysis
El Clásico is always a must-watch, and this time will be no exception. On top of the historic rivalry between these two giants, this clash adds extra spice with the battle for the top spot in La Liga—and some fiery comments from Lamine Yamal that have turned up the heat even more.
Real Madrid enter the match sitting atop the table with 24 points, the result of eight wins and just one loss. Xabi Alonso has quickly stamped his identity on the team, which also maintained a perfect record in the Champions League after defeating Juventus last Wednesday.
Kylian Mbappe has found his best form in his second season in the Spanish capital, scoring 15 goals in 12 matches across all competitions. Surrounded by offensive firepower, Madrid boasts plenty of attacking depth alongside the French star, including Vinícius Jr., Franco Mastantuono, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo.
The main concerns, however, are on defense. David Alaba and Antonio Rüdiger remain sidelined with injuries, while Dean Huijsen and Raul Asencio are dealing with knocks. One of them is expected to partner Eder Militao in the center of the back line.
Barcelona, meanwhile, sit second in the standings, just two points behind their eternal rival. Hansi Flick’s side bounced back quickly from a 4–1 loss to Sevilla earlier this month with back-to-back wins—against Girona in La Liga and a 6–1 rout of Olympiacos in the Champions League.
The team’s young star, Lamine Yamal, added more fuel to the fire by saying in an interview that Real Madrid “steal” and “complain too much” about referees—comments that reportedly hit like a bomb inside Madrid’s locker room, according to Spanish media.
Barcelona will again be without Raphinha, who suffered a setback in his recovery earlier this week. Robert Lewandowski and Dani Olmo remain out as well, while Wojciech Szczesny will once again start in goal due to injuries to Joan Garcia and Marc-Andre ter Stegen.
If there’s one thing recent Clásicos have guaranteed, it’s goals: each of the last few meetings has seen at least four. Real Madrid enter as the favorite, playing at home and in great form, with a 50% win probability on Kalshi.
That makes buying contracts on a Barcelona victory (32% chance) a smart move. The Blaugrana crushed Madrid 4–0 at the Bernabeu last year and did the same in 2022. They also have the Yamal factor—a player who, despite being only 18, has already proven he thrives on the biggest stages.
Pick: Barcelona to Win (32% chance at Kalshi)
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
