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Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Predictions & Picks for Arsenal vs. Leeds (Nov. 22)


Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Bamford

  • Two mid-table clubs face off Sunday when Leeds United visits The Emirates to take on Arsenal
  • Should the Gunners be favored in this Premier League showdown? We're not so sure.
  • Anthony Dabbundo tells us why he likes Leeds to triumph below.

Arsenal vs. Leeds United Odds

Arsenal odds +123 [BET NOW]
Leeds odds +205 [BET NOW]
Draw +270 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-139/+114) [BET NOW]
Time 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Sunday at 9 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Two mid-table Premier League sides will face off in North London on Sunday as newcomers Leeds United meet with  struggling Arsenal at The Emirates.

The Gunners attack has been lackluster thus far in 2020, but Leeds have the league’s worst defense by goals allowed, which could make for a free-flowing match.

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I came into the season with low expectations for Arsenal, who masked a poor Premier League season with a strong FA Cup run and a trophy at the end of the season. The Gunners’ underlying expected goals numbers are quite concerning, given that they are underwater for the year.

Their pressing rates are down, they aren’t completing as many passes in the opponent final third as usual, and striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is now past-peak age and well past peak performance based on his paltry expected goals numbers thus far in 2020-21.

The Gunners have four wins and four defeats, but were quite fortunate to win two of those. West Ham outplayed them for large stretches of that match, and won on expected. And neither team felt like scoring in the Manchester United-Arsenal match, until Aubameyang and Arsenal were given a penalty.

The Gunners have had one comprehensive performance all year — a 3-0 thrashing of Fulham in the opening weekend — and haven’t been good since.
The market is showing them way too much respect, and I don’t think they should even be favorites here.

Leeds United

The return of Leeds United to the Premier League combined with manager Marcelo Bielsa is a match made in heaven for football purists. Leeds have been the league’s most fun watch — high pressing, lots of shots, wide open play.

Leeds are first in pressing intensity, rank fourth in passes completed within 20 yards of the opponents’ goal, and last in passes allowed within their own penalty area.

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The result has been goals, and lots of them. Leeds rank sixth in xGF, 19th in xGA and 10th in expected goal differential. They are a fun watch that lacks the defensive quality to compete for a European place, but they’ve shown against Liverpool and Manchester City they can challenge any team in this league.

Striker Patrick Bamford will be the best attacking player on the pitch on Sunday, as he ranks seventh in xG individually in the Premier League. And top creator Jack Harrison ranks fifth in expected assists. Leeds have more firepower than Arsenal at this point this season, as impossible as that seems.

Betting Analysis

Arsenal will try to play out from the back against this Leeds pressing unit, and I don’t trust their ability to break a high press. The Gunners have been too shaky through the midfield and don’t have enough attacking output when they do break through it.

The wrong team is favored here, according to my projections. I project Leeds with 1.3 expected goals to 1.23 for the Gunners, and that’s with a weaker home field advantage than most models are taking into account. Leeds are my biggest value bet of the Premier League weekend. I’ll take them to get at least a point here.

Pick: Leeds Pick’em (+128)

[Bet Leeds now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 deposit bonus]
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