Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Everton vs. West Brom (Saturday, Sept. 19)

Everton vs. West Bromwich Albion Odds

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Everton were one of the big stories from Week 1, putting together a terrific effort on the road against Tottenham to earn their first away win against a "Big Six" club since 2013.

The result was certainly positive, but the most important takeaway from that match was that Everton's three new signings, James Rodriguez, Allan and Abdoulaye Doucouré, fit into the side seamlessly. The Toffees' midfield was a huge weakness in 2019-20. If that's sorted, they could have a chance to crash the top-four party this season.

Was Everton's Week 1 Performance Legit?

The expected goals in the match were tight but showed that underdogs Everton were a step better than Tottenham. The Toffees won the expected goals battle, 1.27 to 0.82, per Understat. Spurs did force a couple of big saves out of Jordan Pickford, but overall the defensive effort from Everton was encouraging, since you'd expect them to have more goals to work with thanks to their new midfield.

You never want to overreact to a one-game sample size in betting, but I don't think it would be jerking the knee to say that this Everton side should be considered a very different team from the one that finished out 2019-20 with a pedestrian 3-3-3 run after the hiatus.

Not only are James, Allan and Doucouré fabulous players, but they make everyone on this roster better. Lucas Digne has already developed into one of the most dynamic left-backs in the league. Andre Gomes can be brilliant on his day, and the strike force of Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin posted good results despite getting little help in 2019-20. The burden on those four players has been significantly lifted, and Everton could stand to gain from that immensely.

West Brom Are As Advertised

As I remarked above, overreacting to one game is not a good habit to develop. That said, we had a pretty good idea of what kind of team West Brom was before Week 1; and their performance — a 0-3 welcome-back-to-the-big-leagues loss to Leicester City, further proved what bookmakers suspected when they hung the Baggies out as one of the co-favorites to be relegated before the season.

Leicester created 2.96 expected goals while only allowing 0.36 in their win over West Brom, and I'm expecting a similar game flow at Goodison Park on Saturday.

I'd expect West Brom to do their best to muddy-up this game out of a 5-4-1 formation and hope to hit Everton on the counter. A low-event match suits the Baggies, but the Toffees have enough creators that they should be able to break through Slaven Bilic's side a few times. The same can't be said of West Brom, who don't have enough play-makers or finishers to contend if Everton are on song.

Everton vs. West Brom Pick

There's certainly a risk of reading too much into Everton's performance against Spurs, but I think their opponent in this match mitigates some of my worries about buying high on the Toffees. I think this is a potential blow-out; and thus, I will go hunting for a price on Everton rather than laying the -195 on them simply to win.

I think Everton has better than a 40% chance to win this game by multiple goals, so I like the +150 on the Toffees -1.5. I also think a punt on Everton's alternate team total is worth a shot, and I landed on them to go over 3.5 goals at +550. It's not a bet you're likely to win, but I think there's a path to success for that wager.

The Bet: Everton -1.5 (+150); Everton Team Total Over 3.5 (+550)

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