Saturday Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen (March 6)

Saturday Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen (March 6) article feature image
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Mika Volkmann/Getty Images). Pictured: Wendell.

Gladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen Odds

Gladbach Odds +155
Bayer Leverkusen Odds +170
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-148 / +118) 
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

Two big Bundesliga clubs in poor form at the moment will square off on Saturday, when ninth-place Borussia Monchengladbach host sixth-place Bayer Leverkusen.

Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.

Gladbach

Borussia Monchengladbach are winless in their past six matches in all competitions — five defeats and one draw. They lost 1-0 to Borussia Dortmund in the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday, preceded by a 3-2 loss at second-place RB Leipzig last weekend in which they squandered a 2-0 lead.

Their 2-0 defeat to Premier League leaders Manchester City in the Champions League wasn’t a surprise. But also included in this winless run are 2-1 losses to 14th-place Koln and 17th-place Mainz — both at home — and a scoreless draw at third-place Wolfsburg.

Gladbach have scored just four goals in those six matches, and one of them was a penalty kick. And in their past four league games they’ve generated just 3.5 xG (expected goals) according to FBRef.com, including the penalty.

On the bright side, they’ve only conceded 3.8 xG in those four games, although they gave up seven goals in total.

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Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen are winless in their past five matches in all competitions — three defeats and two draws. They lost 2-1 at home to eighth-place Freiburg last Sunday, and their previous two league matches were draws, at 13th-place Augsburg (1-1) and vs. Mainz (2-2). They also lost both legs of their Europa League Round of 32 matchup with Young Boys (Switzerland), 4-3 and 2-0.

On the bright side, Leverkusen scored in all but one of those five matches, and seven goals in total. And they generated 7.1 xG.

But Leverkusen also conceded goals in all five matches, and 11 goals in total. And they conceded 8.9 expected goals.

Betting Analysis & Picks

When these teams met back in early November, Bayer Leverkusen won 4-3, although Borussia Monchengladbach were tops in terms of xG, 2.5 to 1.6.

Both teams were in a very different place at the time. Leverkusen was unbeaten through the first six weeks of the Bundesliga season. Gladbach had suffered just one defeat prior, on the opening weekend to Borussia Dortmund.

Now both these teams are under pressure. Leverkusen have 37 points — two points behind fifth-place Dortmund, and five points behind Eintracht Frankfurt in the final Champions League spot. Gladbach are four points further back.

Looking at the underlying numbers, both these teams are about where they should be in the table, except in reverse order. In terms of xG differential, Gladbach are seventh in the league at +7.5, and Leverkusen are ninth at +4.4.

These teams appear rather evenly matched, and the odds say as much. So I’ll take the draw, which pays the most among the three moneyline alternatives.

Pick: Draw (+245)

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