Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Crystal Palace vs. West Bromwich Albion (Saturday, March 13)
John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Crystal Palace star Wilfried Zaha.
- Crystal Palace, fresh off a blowout loss and nearing the relegation zone, hosts lowly West Bromich Albion in Premier League action Saturday at Selhurst Park.
- Wilfied Zaha, the Eagles' leading scorer, might be back in the starting XI after missing time for a hamstring injury.
- Jeremy Pond explains why he's backing Crystal Palace and what to target with the total below.
Crystal Palace vs. West Brom Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+133|
|West Brom Odds||+240|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+140 / -177)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings.|
Struggling Premier League clubs go at it Saturday when Crystal Palace welcomes lowly West Browmich Albion to Selhurst Park for a crucial match.
The Eagles, who are coming off a 4-1 blowout loss against Tottenham Hotspur, have found themselves lurking around the relegation zone with a recent string of inconsistent performances. Although Crystal Palace is eight points clear of the bottom three, it’s not out of the woods just yet.
On the other side, the visiting Baggies have all but punched their ticket to the Championship. Needing numerous wins to pull off the latest “great escape,” West Brom has only picked up six points in its last five league contests.
Let’s take a look at these floundering sides and see what might be in store.
The Eagles continue to do just enough to keep themselves safely away from the quartet in the midst of a relegation fight. However, if there are any extended bumps in the road down the stretch, it will get interesting for them.
Some positive news finally hit Crystal Palace, with leading scorer Wilfried Zaha back in the fold after missing time with a hamstring injury. He leads the Eagles with nine goals, and there’s a distinct possibility he returns to the starting XI against West Brom after coming on as a second-half substitute against Spurs.
Statistically, Crystal Palace boasts some pretty awful numbers when in the advanced metrics. The Eagles sit on 22.0 expected goals and a poor 41.9 xGA, resulting in a disappointing -19.9 xGDiff and -0.71 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Just how bad is Crystal Palace in xGDiff? The club is 19th out of 20 teams, with only its upcoming opponent worse with a ghastly -26.8 xGDiff this season.
Settling for draws when you’re top-half — or even mid-pack — in the standings is one thing, but when you’re eight points from safety with few matches ahead, they surely feel like defeats.
That’s the recent story for manager Sam Allardyce and the Baggies, which is creating even more uneasiness at The Hawthorns. Three of West Brom’s last five league efforts have resulted in stalemates, which is a trend that must change if it’s going to stay in England’s top flight.
When comparing numbers with Crystal Palace, there’s only one team worse in the entire league. That team just happens to be (you guessed it) West Brom.
The Baggies’ stats are beyond awful, highlighted — or should I say low-lighted — by their 20.1 xG and downright terrible 46.9 xGA, generating a -26.8 xGDiff and -0.96 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Folks, it goes without saying these are two very weak teams. West Brom is almost surely going down to the Championship, with Crystal Palace potentially following its foe if it doesn’t turn things around in a timely fashion.
On paper, this has “low-scoring affair” written all over it. However, these are outfits in dire need of all three points. As the saying goes, “desperate times call for desperate measures,” so I expect both to come on their front feet seeking the victory.
And because of that, I feel like the host has more options — including Zaha back in the mix — to get things done in West Brom’s defensive third of the pitch. For that reason, I am backing Crystal Palace via a Draw No Bet wager as my top pick. The Eagles have won five of their last six matches against the Baggies across all competitions, so we’re hopeful history repeats itself.
I am also playing the total to go over two goals at -129 odds via DraftKings, with the belief we’re going to see offensive improvement at Selhurst Park.
Pick: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (-177) | Total Over 2 Goals (-129)