Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Fulham vs. Manchester City (Saturday, March 13)

Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Fulham vs. Manchester City (Saturday, March 13) article feature image
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Victoria Haydn/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standouts lkay Gundogan, left, and Phil Foden.

  • Manchester City makes the trip to Craven Cottage on Saturday for a Premier League bout with Fulham.
  • The Cityzens, who had their 28-match unbeaten run ended last weekend, hope to continue their push toward a league crown.
  • Kieran Darcy explains why he finds value on Manchester City to roll in this meeting below.

Fulham vs. Manchester City Odds

Fulham Odds +850
Manchester City Odds -295
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-127 / +104) 
Day | Time Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

The fourth and final Premier League match Saturday pits the league leader Manchester City against 18th-place Fulham at Craven Cottage.

However, the Cottagers’ improved form of late makes this a more interesting game than you might think.

Let’s take a closer look at these clubs, followed by a prediction.

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Fulham

The Cottagers are still in the relegation zone, but only via goal difference. With 26 points, they’re now level with 17th-place Brighton & Hove Albion and just two points behind 16th-place Newcastle United.

Fulham’s 1-0 win at Liverpool last Sunday was a huge boost in its campaign to stay in England’s top flight. And that result at Anfield was no fluke either. Liverpool did outshoot Fulham by a 16-10 margin, but the visitor had finished with a 1.2-1.0 advantage in expected goals (xG), according to FBRef.com.

The Cottagers have picked up points in six of their past seven matches, with three wins and three draws.  They’ve also beaten Everton (2-0) and Sheffield United (1-0), while finishing all square with West Ham United (0-0), Burnley (1-1) and a scoreless draw with Crystal Palace. Fulham’s only loss over this stretch was a narrow 1-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur.

The Cottagers have scored just 22 goals in 28 matches, but boats an xG total of 31.3 on the numbers. In terms of xG differential, they would be well above the relegation zone — in 13th place at -4.9 xGDiff, ahead of the likes of Everton among others.

Manchester City

It’s only a matter of time before the Cityzens are crowned champions. With nine matches left to play, they have 68 points and a 14-point lead over second-place Manchester United (although the latter do have a game in hand).

Manchester City’s 21-match winning streak did finally come to an end last Sunday against its local rival referenced above, suffering a 2-0 defeat. However, the club bounced back in a big way against Southampton on Wednesday, cruising to a 5-2 triumph.

The league front runners are truly a class above everyone else this season. They’ve 61 goals scored, which is six more than any other team in the league. And they have conceded just 21 goals, four fewer than anyone else.

The underlying numbers tell a similar story as well. Manchester City’s xGDiff is +32.5, putting it well ahead of second-place Chelsea (+20.5 xGDiff) in the category.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Manchester City won the first meeting in early December by a relatively close 2-0 scoreline, yet the xG margin was more lopsided at 3.0-0.2 xG at the game’s conclusion.

Yes, Fulham’s form is much improved, but Manchester City wasn’t clicking on all cylinders back then either. It was the Cityzens’ 10th league match of the season, and they’d dropped points in five of the first nine fixtures.

Manchester City does have a Champions League match Tuesday against Borussia Mönchengladbach, but hold a 2-0 lead from the first leg. Its squad is so deep that rotation doesn’t really scare me either.

This is the best team in the league by far, facing a team trying to stave off relegation. Looking back, nine of Manchester City’s past 12 league victories have come by more than a goal. They should make it 10 out of 13 in this game.

Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (+106)

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