Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet Everton vs. Burnley (Saturday, March 13)
Clive Brunskill/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Everton players celebrate a goal in a recent match.
- Everton and Burnley go at it Saturday in a Premier League battle at Goodison Park.
- The Toffees, who are hoping to make a push toward a Champions League berth with a strong finish, face a foe trying to avoid relegation.
- Kieran Darcy breaks thinsg down and gives his top pick below.
Everton vs. Burnley Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+125 / -157)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated Saturday morning and via DraftKings.|
Clubs with very different fights on their hands meet up Saturday in the third of four Premier League matches.
Everton enter the weekend in sixth place with 46 points, sitting two points behind fifth-place West Ham United, and a point above Tottenham Hotspur. The Blues are aiming to secure a spot in European football next season.
In contrast, Burnley is in 15th place with 30 points, just four points above Fulham in 18th place, and trying to avoid getting sucked into a relegation fight.
The Toffees are coming off a 2-0 loss at Chelsea on Monday. The Blues’ goals weren’t particularly impressive: one was an own goal; the other a Jorginho penalty. Yet, it was a dominant performance nonetheless. Chelsea had 65% possession; outshot Everton by an 18-7 margin; and, topped its foe in terms of xG (expected goals) via 2.9-0.3 xG advantage, according to FBRef.com.
There’s no shame in losing to Chelsea right now, though, given it’s still unbeaten since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager.
Prior to that match, Everton had reeled off three wins in a row, all coming via clean sheets: Liverpool (2-0); Southampton (1-0); and, a 1-0 victory at West Bromwich Albion. Richarlison has been red-hot of late, scoring in four consecutive matches prior to the Chelsea defeat.
However, Everton’s position in the table is arguably much higher than it should be. In terms of goal difference, the Toffees are 10th at +4 (39 goals scored | 35 goals conceded) this season. And in terms of xG differential, they’re even worse at 14th overall -5.5 xGDiff (31.9 xG | 37.4 xGA) in the category.
The Clarets are coming off back-to-back 1-1 draws, both coming against pretty good opponents: last Saturday against Arsenal and three days prior against Leicester City. In fact, five of their past seven league tilts have finished even.
There were also draws against Brighton & Hove Albion (1-1); Fulham (1-1); and, a scoreless stalemate with West Bromwich Albion. Also during that stretch, Burnley earned a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace, but suffered a 4-0 setback against Spurs.
It’s been a pretty good run of form for Burnley, which was also tops in xG in three of those five draws: 2.1-0.6 xG over Brighton; 1.4-0.5 xG versus Fulham; and, 1.6-1.3 xG against Leicester City. But overall, the Clarets still one of the few teams below Everton in both goal difference and xG differential.
Burnley is 16th in goal difference at -16: 20 goals scored and 36 goals conceded. Also, the Clarets are 17th in xGDiff (-15.7) on the season.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Speaking of draws, the first match between these two clubs finished 1-1 back in early December.
As illustrated above, the performance gap between Everton and Burnley isn’t nearly as wide as the table indicates. This is the 14th-place team vs. 17th-ranked club in terms of xG differential.
Everton hasn’t been scoring many goals. In fact, the Toffees have just five goals in their past six matches. Burnley has scored just 20 goals in 28 matches, with only last-place Sheffield United have scored fewer (16) this campaign.
I foresee a tight, low-scoring affair that could go either way. I like Burnley’s chances of at least snagging a point, so I’ll go with the Double Chance wager.
Pick: Double Chance — Burnley or Tie (+100)