Sunday Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Arsenal vs. Sheffield United (Oct. 4)

Arsenal vs. Sheffield United Odds

Odds updated as of Sunday at 8:15 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Sheffield United has started its Premier League campaign with three consecutive losses after last season's excellent return to England's top flight.

The Blades will look to pick up their first win of the season Sunday when they travel to North London to take on Arsenal. 

These are two clubs whose performances have been similar, despite wildly different results. Arsenal have taken six points from nine, getting a deserved win against Fulham and fortunate one against West Ham United.

Meanwhile, Sheffield United was dealt a tough break when it conceded two goals from two shots in the opening 10 minutes against Wolves in its opener, then played down a man for 77 minutes in a 1-0 loss against Aston Villa.

Sheffield United won the xG battle in both of its past two defeats, and despite the punditry suggesting that the magic has run out for the Blades, the underlying numbers don’t suggest that is the case just yet. The Blades are goalless thus far, but that’s more the result of poor finishing rather than poor creation of scoring chances.

The visitors rank inside the Top 8 in number of passes completed inside 20 yards from the opponent’s goal through three games. That shows the Blades are actually controlling games more than their opponents when compared to last season, when they were near the bottom of the table in this metric.

I’m not overly concerned about Sheffield United's attacking prowess, and if Arsenal plays three in the back, it should be neutralized tactically by its own back three. 

On the other side, the narrative of Arsenal’s results under Mikel Arteta is remarkably different from what the underlying numbers suggest. The Gunners had an excellent FA Cup run during the restart, beating Manchester City and Chelsea.

Through three games, Arsenal might have dominated Fulham, but it's conceded 4.8 xGA in its last two matches to West Ham and Liverpool. The Gunners are ninth in non-penalty, expected goal difference and have benefitted from converting a higher percentage of their big scoring chances than any team in the league since January 1.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

I project Arsenal to win this match just over 50% of the time, with an average goal margin of 1.49 to 0.91. Therefore, at plus-1, I show plenty of value on the Blades here away from home. I’m consistently lower than the market on Arsenal, because of its name brand driving up the price, but I maintain that the host is wildly overrated and have been for almost a year now. 

This is an awesome, buy-low spot on the Sheffield United and sell-high one on Arsenal. I’ve faded the Gunners the past two weeks (a push and a win) and will continue to do so until the market corrects.

Pick: Sheffield United +1 (-120 or better)

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