Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Roma vs. AC Milan (Sunday, Feb. 28)
Octavio Passos/Getty Images. Pictured: Henrikh Mkhitaryan.
- AC Milan looks to end a run of bad Serie A results Sunday in a difficult matchup with Roma.
- The Giallorossi have been a fun team to watch this season, scoring goals and creating chances left and right.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down why he sees Roma adding to Milan’s recent Serie A woes below.
Roma vs. AC Milan Odds
|AC Milan Odds||+205|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +140)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via DraftKings.|
Roma and AC Milan meet on Sunday in the Italian capital for a top-four showdown in Serie A.
Roma has been one of the best offenses across the continent this season, racking up 47 goals in only 23 Serie A matches.
It cruised past Portuguese side Braga in the Europa League on Thursday, 3-1, to send itself to the Round of 16.
However, in Serie A, it’s clinging to fourth place in the table with Atalanta and Lazio hot of their tails. Roma has yet to lose at home this season, and a loss to AC Milan could cripple its chances at qualifying for the Champions League next season.
AC Milan was having a dream start to the season before its bad run of form over the past few weeks.
It’s lost two straight matches in Serie A, which has allowed their inter-city rival, Inter Milan, to ascend to the top spot in the table.
It got Serbian champions Red Star Belgrade in the Europa League on an away goals tiebreaker, so things are not looking good for the Rossoneri at the moment. However, a road win against a talented side like Roma may be just what it needs to get back in the title race.
I Giallorossi have been flying high this season, as they’ve been the highest-scoring team in Italy, averaging 2.18 xG per match. They’ve been doing most of their damage at home, too, as they have a ridiculous +21.69 xGD in only 12 matches at the Olympic Stadium this season.
The biggest difference between this season and last season is Roma has switched to a 3-4-2-1 formation, which is the same formation teams like Chelsea and RB Leipzig have adopted.
The main objective of the 3-4-2-1 is to completely overwhelm opposing defenses by outnumbering them on the counter-attack. The formation allows Roma some tactical flexibility, to adjust on the fly based on how the match is going.
That has allowed I Giallorossi to dominate possession and keep opponents on their toes. The proof in the numbers, too, as Roma is averages +1.08 xGD per 90 minutes, when playing out of that formation, per Understat.
Now, while Roma’s numbers at home and out of the 3-4-2-1 formation are impressive, what is not impressive is their record against the top of the table.
In eight matches against the top eight teams in Italy, I Giallorossi are a disappointing 0-4-4. However, all four of those losses came on the road, so Sunday at home could be their best opportunity to get their first win over a top-eight team.
AC Milan was always due for some type of negative regression offensively.
The problem was it was too reliant on two things: 1) Penalties, and 2) 39-year-old Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
The Rossoneri have been awarded 14 penalties this season, which is more than any other club across Europe’s major five leagues. Additionally, they don’t have many goal-scoring threats outside of Ibrahimovic, who is averaging a ridiculous 1.12 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate.
Since 22.2% of AC Milan’s goals have come from the penalty spot, it’s somewhat struggled to create chances organically. The Rossoneri average only 1.17 xG per match from open play this season, which is extremely low for a team currently inside the top four.
AC Milan has also had its struggles against some of the top teams in Italy, going 1-3-1 against the top five teams in Serie A.
Its first meeting this season with Roma was an absolute thriller, ending in a 3-3 draw with AC Milan blowing three one-goal leads in the contest.
For AC Milan to come away with all three points in the second meeting, it’s going to have to play much better than it’s showed over the past two weeks.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Even though Roma has a terrible record against the top teams in Italy, I think it’s are undervalued in this spot. AC Milan has looked terrible over the past two weeks, so this will be a perfect spot for I Giallorossi to pick off the second-place team in the table at home.
Since I have Roma projected at -133, I think there’s plenty of value on it at +130 to pick up all three points.
Pick: Roma ML (+130)