European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals for Weekend Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A & More (Feb. 26-29)
Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United’s Aaron Wan-Bissaka (center) celebrates a goal with Bruno Fernandes (right) and Edinson Cavani.
The European Soccer calendar is in full swing at the moment and we yet again have a full slate of action this weekend. Here is a snapshot of what’s been going on over the past week.
- Liverpool were upset by inter-city rival Everton, which was the Toffees’ first win over the Reds since 2010 and first win at Anfield since 1999.
- West Ham defeated Tottenham in a London Derby, moving the Hammers inside the top four.
- Manchester City defeated Arsenal 1-0 at the Emirates, which was their 18th win in a row.
- Bayern Munich was upset on the road at Frankfurt, bringing their lead in the Bundesliga down to only two points over RB Leipzig.
- Atletico Madrid was upset 2-0 at home by Levante, which brings their lead in La Liga down to three points.
- Inter Milan routed their inter-city rivals AC Milan 3-0, extending their lead atop the Serie A standing to four points.
- Atalanta defeated Napoli, 4-2, bringing them to within one point of the top four.
- PSG was upset at home 2-0 by Monaco, which dropped them to third place in the Ligue 1 standings.
With how busy the European soccer calendar is at the moment with mid-week Champions League and Europa League matches, managers might be rotating their squads to rest some players. Therefore, it might be a good idea to wait to place a wager until starting lineups come out prior to kickoff.
You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.
Premier League Notes
- Manchester City vs. West Ham: The Cityzens’ run is getting ridiculous at this point. They’ve won 19 in a row in all competitions and 13 in a row in the Premier League, while outscoring their opponents 40-4. West Ham is on a nice run of its own, winning six of its last eight matches in the Premier League, including a win over Tottenham last weekend. West Ham held Manchester City to a 1-1 draw earlier this season, so will the Hammers be the ones to end Manchester City’s streak?
- Chelsea vs. Manchester United: Chelsea has drastically improved under new manager Thomas Tuchel, as it’s unbeaten in his first seven matches in charge and have conceded only two goals. Manchester United is on an interesting run at the moment, as they’ve only won three of their last eight matches in the Premier League. These two teams drew 0-0 at Old Trafford earlier this season.
Premier League Injury News
- Aston Villa: Matty Cash (RB) and Jack Grealish (LM) are out against Leeds.
- Brighton: Solly March (LB) and Adam Webster (CB) are out against West Brom.
- Burnley: Robbie Brady (LM), Ashley Barnes (ST) and Johann Gudmundsson (CM) are out against West Brom. Chris Wood (ST) is questionable.
- Chelsea: Thiago Silva (CB) is out against Manchester United.
- Crystal Palace: Wilfried Zaha (ST), James McArthur (CM) Jeffrey Schlupp (LM) and Mamadou Sakho (CB) are out against Fulham.
- Everton: Yerry Mina (CB) is out against Southampton.
- Fulham: Tom Cairney (CAM) is out against Crystal Palace. Aleksandar Mitrovic (ST) is questionable.
- Leeds: Kalvin Phillips (CM) is out against Aston Villa.
- Leicester: Ayoze Perez (RM), James Justin (LB), James Maddison (CAM) and Dennis Praet (CAM) are out against Arsenal.
- Liverpool: Diogo Jota (CF), Virgil van Dijk (CB), Jordan Henderson (CM), James Milner (CM), Joël Matip (CB) and Joe Gomez (CB) are out against Sheffield United.
- Manchester United: Paul Pogba (CM) is out against Chelsea. Edinson Cavani (ST) and Donny van de Beek (CAM) are questionable.
- Newcastle: Javier Manquillo (RB), Fabian Schär (CB) and Callum Wilson (ST) are out against Wolves. Federico Fernández (CB) is questionable.
- Sheffield United: Sander Berge (CM), Jack Robinson (CB), Lys Mousset (ST), John Egan (CB) and Jack O’Connell (CB) are out against Liverpool.
- Southampton: Theo Walcott (RM), Oriol Romeu (CM), Kyle Walker-Peters and Ibrahima Diallo (CM) are out against Everton.
- Tottenham: Giovani Lo Celso (CM), Serge Aurier (RB) are out against Burnley
- West Brom: Semi Ajayi (CB) is out against Brighton.
- West Ham: Arthur Masuaku (LB), Andriy Yarmolenko (RM) and Angelo Ogbonna (CB) are out against Manchester City.
- Wolves: Daniel Podence (ST), Willy Boly (CB) and Raúl Jiménez (ST) are out against Newcastle.
- RB Leipzig vs. Gladbach: RB Leipzig is on a nice run in the Bundesliga at the moment, winning four straight matches and outscoring opponents 9-1. They are the best home team in the Bundesliga, collecting 28 of a possible 33 points and putting up a +15.54 xGD in the process. Gladbach is really struggling this season — currently sitting eighth place — and have not won a match in the Bundesliga in over a month. Gladbach defeated RB Leipzig 1-0 at Borussia Park back in October.
Bundesliga Injury News
- Augsburg: Iago (LWB) is out against Mainz.
- Bayer Leverkusen: Lars Bender (CDM) is questionable to play against Freiburg. Moussa Diaby (LM) is out.
- Bayern Munich: Thomas Muller (CAM), Benjamin Pavard (RB), and Douglas Costa (CAM) are out against Koln.
- Borussia Dortmund: Axel Witsel (CM) is out against Arminia Bielefeld.
- Frankfurt: Evan N’Dicka (CB) is out against Werder Bremen.
- Gladbach: Christoph Kramer (CM) and Jonas Hofmann (RM) are out against RB Leipzig.
- Hertha Berlin: Marvin Plattenhardt (LB) is out against Wolfsburg. Jordan Torunarigha (CB) and Dedryck Boyata (CB) are questionable.
- Hoffenheim: Stefan Posch (CB) and Kevin Akpoguma (CB) are out against Union Berlin.
- Koln: Sebastian Andersson (ST) is questionable to play against Bayern Munich. Florian Kainz (RM) is out.
- Mainz 05: Robin Quaison (ST) is questionable to play against Augsburg.
- Schalke: Matija Nastasic (CB), Shkodran Mustafi (CB) and Mark Uth (CAM) are out against Vfb Suttgart.
- Wolfsburg: John Brooks (CB) is out.
Serie A Notes
- Roma vs. AC Milan: AC Milan has lost its lead atop the Serie A table after back-to-back losses, while Roma is clinging to the fourth spot in the table. Roma is unbeaten at home and has been completely dominating opponents, putting up a +21.69 xGD in only 12 matches, which is the best mark in Serie A. AC Milan only has one loss on the road this season, so something will have to give in this matchup.
Serie A Injury News
- AC Milan: Mario Mandzukic (ST) is questionable to play against Roma.
- Atalanta: Berat Djimsiti (CB) is out against Sampdoria. Duvan Zapata (ST) is questionable.
- Benevento: Kamil Glik (CB) is out against Napoli. Gaetano Letizia (RB) is questionable.
- Bologna: Aaron Hickey (LB) is out against Lazio.
- Crotone: Sebastiano Luperto (CB) is questionable to play against Cagliari.
- Fiorentina: Franck Ribery (LW) is out against Udinese.
- Inter: Achraf Hakimi (RM) is out against Genoa.
- Juventus: Paulo Dybala (CF) and Juan Cuadrado (RB) are questionable to face Verona. Leonardo Bonucci (CB), Arthur (CM), Danilo (RB) and Giorgio Chiellini (CB) are out.
- Lazio: Luiz Felipe (CB) and Stefan Daniel Radu (CB) are out against Bologna.
- Napoli: Hirving Lozano (RW), Elseid Hysaj (LB) and Konstantinos Manolas (CB) are out against Benevento. David Ospina (GK) is questionable.
- Roma: Marash Kumbulla (CB) is questionable to play against AC Milan. Chris Smalling (CB) is out.
- Spezia: Diego Farias (LW) and Claudio Terzi (CB) are out against Parma.
- Udinese: Ignacio Pussetto (ST), Roberto Pereyra (CM), Gerard Deulofeu (ST) and Marvin Zeegelaar (LM) are out against Fiorentina.
- Verona: Federico Ceccherini (CB) is out against Juventus.
La Liga Notes
- Sevilla vs. Barcelona: Barcelona is back in the title race, but needs to keep its good run of form going if it wants any shot at catching Atletico Madrid. They’re unbeaten in their last 14 La Liga matches, but have yet to face any stiff competition in those matches. Sevilla has been on a good run themselves, as they’ve won six straight La Liga matches. Sevilla defeated Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, 2-0, only two weeks ago.
- Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad: Los Blancos are starting to close the gap on Atletico Madrid, as they’ve won their last four matches in La Liga. Sociedad started off La Liga red hot and were the leaders ten matches into the season. They hit a bit of skid in December and January, but have rebounded by winning their last three matches in La Liga. Real Madrid is dealing with a ton of injuries at the moment, so this will be Real Sociedad’s best chance to pick off the Spanish giants.
La Liga Injuries
- Alaves: Rodrigo Battaglia (CM) is out against Osasuna.
- Atletico Madrid: Kieran Trippier (RB) is out against Villarreal. Yannick Carrasco (LM) and Jose Gimenez (CB) are questionable.
- Barcelona: Ansu Fati (LW), Philippe Coutinho (CAM) and Sergi Roberto (RB) are out against Sevilla.
- Cadiz: Álex Fernández (LM) is questionable to face Real Betis. Carlos Akapo (RB) is out.
- Celta Vigo: Niolito (LM) and Ruben Blanco (GK) are out against Real Valladolid.
- Elche: Ivan Marcone (CM) and Diego Gonzalez (CB) are out against Granada.
- Huesca: Pedro Mosquera (CDM) is questionable to play against Eibar.
- Levante: Ruben Vezo (CB), Enis Bardhi (LM), Sergio Postigo (CB) and Gonzalo Melero (CM) are out against Athletic Bilbao.
- Osasuna: Facundo Roncaglia (RB) is out against Alaves.
- Real Betis: Borja Iglesias (ST) is questionable to face Cadiz. Marc Bartra (CB), Nabil Fekir (CAM) and Victor Ruiz (CB) are out.
- Real Madrid: Sergio Ramos (CB), Marcelo (LB), Daniel Carvajal (RB), Federico Valverde (CM), Eder Militao (CB) and Rodrygo (RW) are out against Real Soceidad. Eden Hazard (LW) is questionable.
- Sevilla: Marcos Acuña (LB) and Lucas Ocampos (LW) are out against Barcelona.
- Valencia: Mouctar Diakhaby (CB) is questionable to play against Getafe.
- Villarreal: Mario Gaspar (RB), Francis Coquelin (CM) and Vicente Iborra (CDM) are out against Atletico Madrid.
Ligue 1 Notes
- Marseille vs. Lyon: Lyon has been on a really nice run in Ligue 1 play, winning five of their last six matches. They trail Lille by only three points for the top spot in the league, so this match is vitally important to their title hopes. Marseille is going through a really difficult season, as they are all they way down in seventh place and have only one win in their last nine matches. Lyon has lost only once in their last six matches away from home against Marseille.
Ligue 1 Injury News
- Angers: Rachid Alioui (CM) and Stéphane Bahoken (ST) are questionable to play against Lens.
- Bordeaux: Toma Basic (CM), Yacine Adli (CM), Youssouf Sabaly (RB) and Otávio (CDM) is out against Metz.
- Dijon: Eric Ebimbe (RM) is questionable to play against PSG.
- Lille: Burak Yılmaz (ST) is questionable to play against Strasbourg.
- Lorient: Jeremy Morel (CB) is out against Saint Etienne.
- Lyon: Marcelo (CB) is questionable to play against Marseille.
- Marseille: Arkadiusz Milik (ST) and Florian Thauvin (RM) are questionable to play against Lyon. Valentin Rongier (CM) and Hiroki Sakai (LB) are out.
- Metz: Opa Nguette (LW) is questionable to play against Bordeaux.
- Monaco: Gelson Martins (RM) is questionable to play against Brest.
- Montpellier: Andy Delort (ST) is out against Reims. Mihailo Ristic (LB) is questionable.
- Nantes: Sebastien Corchia (RB) is questionable to play against Nimes.
- Nice: Kasper Dolberg (ST), Rony Lopes (RW) and Jeff Reine-Adélaïde (CM) is out against Rennes. Youcef Atal (RB) is questionable.
- Nimes: Lucas Deaux (CM) and Anthony Briancon (CB) are out against Nantes.
- PSG: Neymar (CF) and Ángel Di María (RW) are questionable to play against Dijon.
- Reims: Yunis Abdelhamid (CB) is questionable to play against Montpellier.
- Saint Etienne: Panagiotis Retsos (CB) is questionable to face Lorient. Romain Hamouma (ST) is out.
- Strasbourg: Mohamed Simakan (CB) is out against Lille.