Champions League Soccer Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Porto vs. Juventus, Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund (Wednesday, Feb. 17)
Francesco Pecoraro/Getty Images. Pictured: Juventus star Cristiano Ronaldo.
- More Champions League action comes our global soccer's way Wednesday, with two matches on the docket.
- Our Action Network analysts have four picks for you as part of their Best Bets on the card below.
Things got off to a blazing start in the return of the Champions League on Tuesday, with Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain delivering resounding Round of 16 wins in the European showcase.
More excitement on the continent's landscape continues Wednesday via two more showdowns. Spanish outfit Sevilla hosts German power Borussia Dortmund, and Portuguese standout Porto welcomes Italian juggernaut Juventus to Estádio do Dragão for their intriguing contest.
Our Action Network soccer analysts will be providing their best bets for these games, as well as the rest of the UCL fixtures.
Let's take a look at their picks and see who they have their sights set on.
| MATCH | ANALYST | THE PICK |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla vs. Dortmund | BJ Cunningham | Sevilla ML (+130) |
| Porto vs. Juventus | Jeremy Pond | Ronaldo To Score — Yes (+108) |
| Sevilla vs. Dortmund | Anthony Dabbundo | Dortmund — Draw No Bet (+128) |
| Porto vs. Juventus | Kieran Darcy | Total Over 2.5 Goals (+125) |
Odds updated as of Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET and via DraftKings.
BJ Cunningham: Sevilla ML (+130)
- Odds available at DraftKings
Sevilla has been quietly on a fantastic run in La Liga, winning nine of their last twelve matches. In fact, they only have one loss since Champions League group play ended back in earlier December and it was on the road at league leaders Atletico Madrid.
During the 12-match run, Sevilla put up a +8.75 xGD in those contests. They are led by their defense, which is one of the best in Spain, allowing only 0.94 expected goals per match.
During group play, Sevilla only had one blemish, which was 4-1 loss at home to Chelsea, but other than that one match, they passed every test in front of them, drawing with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and beat both Krasnodar and Rennes twice.
Dortmund may have all the talent in the world, but they are lacking any sort of consistency at the moment. They only have one win in their last six matches in Bundesliga play and have lost their last three matches away from home, conceding eight goals in the process.
The biggest problem for Dortmund right now is they have too many injuries affecting their defense. Their best central midfielder Axel Witsel, their first choice right back Thomas Meunier, and starting goalkeeper Roman Burki have all been out the past few weeks, which has clearly had an effect on Dortmund during their bad run of play.
I have Sevilla projected at +105 to win this match, so I like the more consistent squad to gain a first leg advantage at +130.
Jeremy Pond: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus) To Score Anytime — Yes (+108)
- Odds available at DraftKings
When it comes to scoring Champions League goals, it's Cristiano Ronaldo's world and we're all just living in it.
Arguably one of the planet's two best players, Ronaldo has rewritten the record books in Europe's most prestigious event. The Portuguese superstar has scored a record 134 goals in 177 UCL appearances, giving him an insane strike rate of 0.77 goals per match. Of those goals, 105 came with Real Madrid, with the others split between Juventus and Manchester United.
Lionel Messi, whom I alluded to above, is the only active player with a better goals per game average (119 goals/148 matches for 0.80 G/M).
As time passes and the miles start creeping up on a player's legs and body, you'd expect some regression from Ronaldo. However, that's simple not the case for this ageless, 36-year-old wonder. He's sitting on 16 goals in Serie A this season, plus he bagged four goals in as many games in the group stage.
Bottom line, athletes like Ronaldo show up on the biggest stage time and time again. And a UCL knockout match in the country he grew up in will provide more than enough inspiration for him to add at least No. 135 to his account.
Back CR7 to find the back of the net at a fair price.
Anthony Dabbundo: Borussia Dortmund — Draw No Bet (+128)
- Odds available at DraftKings
Sevilla is in great form within La Liga as of late, but throughout the season, it has been far from dominant. The Red-Whites' expected goals per 90 difference of +0.45 ranks seventh in Spain's top flight, which is their lowest rank since they finished eighth during the 2017-18 campaign.
The club's season-long xG difference is +10 goals, but its total goal difference is +16 at the moment. Compare this to Dortmund, which won the xG battle in five of its six matches in the UCL group stage and finished first in its group.
Dortmund has been great on its travels this year in terms of underlying performance, even if the results haven't backed it up. Per FBref.com, the German side has been better away on the road, generating a +12.4 xG difference away from the Signal Iduna Park. Despite this, they're actual goal difference is +2 this season.
Dortmund has been running unsustainably behind their xG numbers, which means it's bound for some positive regression entering this tie at Sevilla.
Recent league form tends to be overvalued in the betting markets in the UCL knockout affairs. This is a classic example, where a struggling Dortmund is undervalued against an overrated Sevilla team that's beating up on foes in a weaker-than-usual group of opponents in Spain's top flight.
Bottom line, Dortmund has the better individual quality on its attack with Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho, and despite the injury concerns in the midfield, it's are priced too cheap in this spot.
Kieran Darcy: Porto-Juventus Total Over 2.5 Goals (+125)
- Odds available at DraftKings
Porto was the only team from outside Europe’s top five leagues to reach the Round of 16, but its are no slouches. The Portuguese standouts have taken four wins and a draw from six matches in the group stage, coming the likes of Manchester City, Marseille and Olympiacos.
The club currently sits in second place in the Primeira Liga, a whopping 10 points behind Sporting Lisbon. However, Porto leads the Portugal's top flight with 43 goals in 19 matches (2.3 goals/game). It's been held scoreless just twice in 25 domestic and UCL games so far this season.
As for Juventus, the Italian power has a big hill to climb if it's going to win a 10th consecutive Scudetto. It's currently in fourth place, eight points behind Inter Milan, although they do have a game in hand.
Yet, that all being said, Juventus is still averaging nearly two goals per match domestically (41 goals in 21 fixtures), and has tallied 14 in six group-stage matches against Barcelona, Dynamo Kyiv and Ferencváros.
Global star Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 16 goals in 18 Serie A appearances this season, four goals in four Champions League games and will be playing on home soil in Portugal.
Three goals or more in this match doesn’t seem like a huge ask.
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