Premier League Betting Odds & Picks for Burnley vs. Manchester City (Wednesday, Feb. 3)
Matt McNulty – Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Pep Guardiola.
- With a big match this weekend against Liverpool, Manchester City cannot afford to take their eyes off Burnley.
- The league leaders boast an impressive defense but will be tested by a sturdy Burnley side that has recently beaten Liverpool and Aston Villa.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the matchup and points to betting value on the total.
Burnley vs. Manchester City Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-560|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET|
As Manchester City’s closest title rivals continue to slip up, the Cityzens have steamrolled their recent opponents.
Still without Kevin De Bruyne, City can extend its lead atop the Premier League table on Wednesday when they visit Turf Moor to face Burnley.
Burnley stole two victories against Liverpool and Aston Villa in late January despite being outplayed, according to expected goals (xG) in both games. Those unexpected points, which have become a staple under manager Sean Dyche at Burnley, will likely keep the Clarets in the top flight for yet another season. One major reason for the results is goalkeeper Nick Pope.
Based on post-shot expected goals (PSxG), no goalkeeper in the PL has been better than Pope. His +6.1 PSxG numbers have won Burnley points and saved them from conceding more goals.
The Clarets’ defense has also been much better in recent weeks in terms of not conceding big scoring chances. While Pope’s shot-stopping has helped prevent better finishes from turning into goals, their defense has improved.
Burnley allowed one big chance to West Ham, one to Liverpool, four to Aston Villa and none to Chelsea in their last four matches. Burnley will have few chances to score against this City defense, but they should be able to keep City from running up a big number.
This is a potential look-ahead spot for Pep Guardiola’s side. With Liverpool coming up at the weekend, City has a chance to extend their gap against what the underlying data suggests is their closest challenger on Sunday.
First, though, Guardiola’s men will travel away to Burnley, who didn’t manage a shot until stoppage time against Chelsea on Sunday.
In their last match, City didn’t have their two primary chance creators this season — De Bruyne and fullback Joao Cancelo. They created two big scoring chances against Sheffield United. One came from a defensive error in the opening minutes and resulted in City’s only goal. The other big chances came in the game’s closing moments as Sheffield United chased an equalizer.
City’s defensive numbers in recent weeks are staggering. They have allowed fewer than 1.0 xGA in seven consecutive matches, per FBref.com. In those seven matches, they have allowed two goals from 2.7 xGA.
While City’s attack was ticking up in expected goals and was atop the league in the last nine matches, there’s been a drop-off in the two matches post-De Bruyne injury. Even though City scored five on West Brom in an easy win, they only created two big scoring chances and 2.0 xG. The production to score four goals to put this over is unlikely to be there.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Given how City’s defense has been virtually impenetrable for the last two months, it will be difficult for Burnley to create any big chances against them. The Cityzens haven’t created nearly as much in the last two matches without De Bruyne either, so I’ll back the under three goals here.
I project 2.78 goals too and will play under to minus-120. If they’re up 1-0 or 2-0, there isn’t going to be a ton of desire for City to increase their lead with Liverpool coming up next.
Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-120 or better)