World Cup Betting Recap Heading into France-Croatia Final

World Cup Betting Recap Heading into France-Croatia Final article feature image

Witters Sport-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: France’s Samuel Umtiti

  • France are favorites over Croatia in the 2018 World Cup Final played on Sunday at 11 a.m. ET.
  • France phenom Kylian Mbappe is now the -110 favorite to win Golden Ball (Best Player).
  • Underdogs have been profitable during the World Cup, but mostly due to South Korea (+1850) beating Germany.

With France set to take on Croatia on Sunday (11 a.m. ET) in the World Cup final, let’s take a look at how the tournament has panned out so far from a betting perspective.

France were one of the favorites to win the World Cup at +700, while Croatia were a dark horse/longshot at +3500. If Croatia wins it all, they’ll be the biggest underdog to hoist the trophy in recent memory.

2018 World Cup Odds

Sportsbooks around the betting market are fairly happy with the two finalists since the most popular bets (Germany, Spain, Brazil) were all knocked out early.

  • William Hill US (Nevada): 8% of tickets and 8% of wagers were on France; only  2% were on Croatia.
  • Westgate (Nevada): France was the fourth-most bet team to win, but it would still be an overall win for the sportsbook.
  • France attracted the fourth-most tickets, but they’d still be a moderate win for the sportsbook; Croatia would be a huge win for.
  • France were the third-most popular bet to win; Croatia were not in the top 10.
  • France received 7% of tickets, the fourth-most popular bet, but Pinnacle would still come out on top for futures.

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Prop Bets

  • A Croatia-France World Cup final was listed at +8000 before the tournament.
  • Harry Kane’s odds to win the Golden Boot (Most Goals) are now -1500, as he holds a two-goal advantage over Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku. Before the tournament, Kane was +1800 to be leading goalscorer.
  • France to win World Cup + Harry Kane to win Golden Boot was listed at +10000 before the tournament.
  • Croatia to win World Cup + Harry Kane to win Golden Boot was above +20000 before the tournament, but most sportsbooks didn’t even offer it.
  • There have been 161 goals scored during the World Cup. The over/under heading into the tournament was listed at 159.5.

Golden Ball Odds

  • France’s 19-year-old phenom Kylian Mbappe is now the -110 favorite to win the Golden Ball for the tournament’s best player. He entered the World Cup at +3300.
  • Croatia’s Luka Modric is next at +210 after entering the tournament as a +10000 longshot.

Biggest Upsets

Korea (+1850) vs. Germany in group stage
Mexico (+580) vs. Germany in group stage
Saudi Arabia (+425) vs. Egypt in group stage
Japan (+400) vs. Colombia in group stage

Tournament Trends

Favorites 33 wins (-3.25 units)
Underdogs 15 wins (+9.15 units)
Draws 14 (-10.10 units)

Underdogs would be down more than 9 units if not for South Korea beating Germany.

After a slow first few days of the tournament, goals really picked up during the World Cup. Here are the O/U results:

29 Overs
23 Unders
10 Pushes

Heading into the knockout rounds, Overs were 24-20-4. In the knockout rounds, Overs went 5-3-6.