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FanDuel Tennis Boost Methodology for a 15.5% Edge on this Serena Williams and Nick Kyrgios Bet

FanDuel Tennis Boost Methodology for a 15.5% Edge on this Serena Williams and Nick Kyrgios Bet article feature image
Credit:

Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Serena Williams

I am playing Serena Williams and Nick Kyrgios both to win the first set and the match boosted to +175 on FanDuel.

I get the fair odds to be roughly +138, which gives this bet a +15.5% EV. You can find this bet here at +175 boosted from its normal price of +125.

The tricky part of this boost is determining the odds that each player wins given the fact that she/he won the first set. Williams’ odds to win the first set are fair at approximately -235. Note: you can argue this is a conservative measure because if a player wins the first set, it may move further set lines in their favor. I use -235 as a constant for her to win each set in the match, which implies a 70.14% chance.

From there, if we assume that the next two sets (if necessary) are -235, then the odds of Danka Kovnic (Williams’ opponent) winning both of them are (1/3.35) * (1/3.35) = 8.9%, implying Williams would then have a 91.1% chance of winning the match if she wins the first set.

Her odds of winning the first set and the match are thus .91*.7014 (-235 converted to probability) = 63.9%

Now for Kyrgios we do the same thing. His first set fair odds are roughly -245, and doing the same thing we did with Serena, we get the odds of Kyrgios losing if he wins the first set to be ~7.5%.

Kyrgios’ odds to win the first set and the match are thus .925* .71 (0.71 is -245 converted to probability) = 65.67%

We multiply 63.9% and 65.67% to get 41.96% implied probability that both Williams and Kyrgios win the first set and the match, which is +138, giving this a +15.5% EV.

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