Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz meet in the Wimbledon semifinals on Friday, July 11. The match will tentatively start at 8:30 a.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN and ESPN+.
Alcaraz is one win away from playing in his third consecutive Wimbledon final while Fritz tries to pull off the big upset.
Find my Wimbledon semifinal betting preview and Alcaraz vs Fritz prediction and pick for Friday below.
Alcaraz vs Fritz Prediction, Pick
- Alcaraz vs Fritz Pick: Fritz +5.5 Games (-105)
My Alcaraz vs Fritz best bet is on Fritz to cover the spread (+5.5; -105). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Wimbledon odds page.
Alcaraz vs Fritz Odds
| Carlos Alcaraz Odds | -600 |
| Taylor Fritz Odds | +430 |
| Spread | Alcaraz -5.5 (-112), Fritz +5.5 (-120) |
| Over/Under | 37.5 (-118o / -112u) |
| Alcaraz-Fritz H2H | 2-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel | |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Preview & Prediction
Alcaraz Betting Preview
Carlos Alcaraz has now won 17 consecutive matches on grass, but the two-time defending champion hasn't always made it look easy. He had to dig himself out of an early deficit in the fourth round against Andrey Rublev, and to open the tournament the Spaniard was forced to outlast veteran Fabio Fognini in five sets.
Alcaraz has dropped a set in three of his five matches here, and he also survived two scares a few weeks ago at Queen's Club, where he was nearly pushed to a deciding tiebreak against Jaume Munar and went three in the final against Jiri Lehecka after failing to close the match in a second-set breaker.
It's certainly not unheard of, particularly given the fact that Alcaraz dropped at least one set in four straight matches last year prior to his win over Novak Djokovic in the final, though with a much-improved serve this season you'd have expected a bit of an easier road.
With that said, the gains in terms of Alcaraz's pop off the serve haven't exactly amounted to success. He's outside the top 30 in the world in terms of win rate behind his first serve this year, and while he's landed slightly more, that would show it hasn't exactly helped him.
Alcaraz is down to 62% during Wimbledon, erasing that growth, though he's won 75% of points behind his first serve, which is slightly up from last grass season.
Fritz Betting Preview
Fatigue is always a mystery in tennis, especially with very little reporting going on behind the scenes, so it remains a question how fit Taylor Fritz truly is at this stage of the tournament.
He won Eastbourne just days before Wimbledon, playing four matches in three days, and if that wasn't bad enough, he was forced into two straight five-set matches to begin this tournament given the tough nature of his draw.
Fritz has had just one let-off in his five matches, and it was a big one.
An injured Jordan Thompson helped the American off the court in just under an hour two rounds ago, so Fritz virtually had three days of rest entering his quarterfinal against Karen Khachanov. That match took place on Tuesday, too, meaning he'll have two further days of rest to gear up for the semis — one more than the players on the other half of the draw.
Assuming Fritz is feeling fresh, which should be the case with his luck finally breaking the right way this week, he should pose some serious issues even for Alcaraz.
Fritz's serve has been dominant this week, landing at a 65% clip and delivering him a win on 82% of points, which ranks seventh in the field. He's also held in 92% of his service games — and all of his figures in this department beat Alcaraz by a comfortable margin.
The American held steady with a win rate of 81% behind his first serve against Khachanov, and seems to be fully up for the task here.
Alcaraz vs Fritz Predictions, Betting Analysis
It's pretty hard to read into the head-to-head between these two, given one match was a virtual exhibition at the Laver Cup and one came over two years ago in Miami. On that occasion, Fritz served terribly — but he came up with more winners than Alcaraz, who made just one unforced error by the scoresheet.
Both of those figures are outliers — even if that seemingly-impossible unforced error count is accurate. Fritz hit just 58% of his first serves in and was smoked on Alcaraz's second-serve points, but the American still managed to flash the premium forehand that led him to the world's top five.
The American managed to serve at just 60% that season, too, which is nowhere near his 65.5% clip in 2025 — and at Wimbledon in particular.
I say all of this because I'm just not sold Alcaraz will be able to get into enough return games to truly run away with this one. He's faced two big servers at Wimbledon in Rublev and Jan-Lennard Struff, and each time he not only failed to cover the spread but dropped an early set with a bunch of unexpected pressure points coming early.
The leap from Cameron Norrie's serve to Fritz's should be a large one, and on top of that, Alcaraz has held just an average margin of roughly +2.5 in the winners-to-unforced errors count per set in his last three while Fritz has held a +34 margin in his last two full matches, which comes out to an average of +4.3 per set.
Fritz is serving better, and he's performed better from the back of the court despite having a hellish draw from the very start of the tournament. He's also exhibited brilliance on return, particularly in his first two matches against the biggest servers in the draw; he should be able to attack a weaker Alcaraz serve.
The Over looks appealing here, but I'll side with the games.
Pick: Fritz +5.5 Games (-105)
