Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton Prediction, Pick, Odds for Wimbledon Quarterfinal

Jannik Sinner and Ben Shelton square off in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday, July 9. The match will tentatively start at 9:30 a.m. and will be broadcast on ESPN and ESPN+.

Find my Wimbledon quarterfinals preview and Sinner vs Shelton predictions for Wednesday below.

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Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton Prediction

• Sinner vs Shelton Pick: Shelton +4.5 Games (-115 to -130); Shelton Moneyline (+250, 0.5u)

My Sinner vs Shelton best bet is on Shelton +4.5 Games (-130) and Shelton ML (+250). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Wimbledon odds page.

Sinner vs Shelton Odds

Kenny Ducey's Sinner vs Shelton Preview, Prediction

Jannik Sinner Betting Preview

After a sketchy fourth-round escape versus Grigor Dimitrov, where he appeared to sustain an arm injury, oddsmakers were quick to cast doubt upon Jannik Sinner's prospects of winning this event prior to play on Tuesday, when he began at +400 to win this tournament.

Now that Sinner's made it through a day of practice following an MRI on his elbow, it appears he's going to give it a go against Ben Shelton in the quarters.

This was hardly a guarantee given the line here, and there's still a good chance that Sinner's elbow and/or wrist are compromised enough from a first-set fall versus Dimitrov that he'll have to pull the plug on his tournament during Wednesday's match. Lending more credence to that outcome is the fact that tournament organizers scheduled this match to be played on Court 1 as opposed to center — perhaps out of fear that this one could end as early as it began.

Regardless, it had been a handsome run to the fourth round for Sinner until he took a fall on Monday. Amidst a large collection of upsets and close calls, the World No. 1 dominated his draw without dropping a set until he fell behind 2-0 to Dimitrov, only for the Bulgarian to emerge the more injured of the two and retire from the match.

Ben Shelton Betting Preview

There's not a ton to hate about the way Ben Shelton has gone about his business at Wimbledon. He's been faced with a couple of tricky opponents in a row, battling the tough Marton Fucsovics and a resurgent Lorenzo Sonego, who had been serving quite well until he was eventually dispatched by Shelton in four sets on Monday.

Shelton hasn't served quite as well as we're used to, hitting just 63% in, but it's more than we can say for Sinner, who stands at 59% for the tournament.

In fact, at this stage of the tournament Shelton's first-serve percentage is one of the highest of any remaining player, and he's done a good enough job behind it in winning 77% of first-serve points.

The lefty actually ranks 12th in win rate behind his second serve, narrowly trailing Sinner, and while his return game is still a work in progress, he was able to convert 4-of-6 break points against the big-serving Sonego and went 4-for-7 against Fucsovics in the third round, winning a hefty 53% of second-serve return points.

The American will need to at least keep up the performance behind his serve and continue to make gains in the return department to keep this one tight, assuming Sinner is fully healthy.

Shelton's shown the mettle required to break through on the big points, however, which is one way to quantify the mental toughness the American has brought to the Grand Slam stage.

Sinner vs Shelton Predictions, Betting Analysis

All that stands in the way of a third Grand Slam semifinal for Shelton is the unbeatable World No. 1, but he's proven in the past that for him it's not so impossible.

Shelton managed to take down Sinner in their first-ever meeting on tour, which took place at the end of the 2023 season. It was mere weeks later that the Italian blossomed into a nearly-undefeated player, going on an extended run which continued at the following year's Australian Open.

The 22-year-old hasn't been able to break through since, even to take just one set, but it doesn't mean there's been a large gap between the two. The pair have played a tiebreak in each one of their six matches, and only 5-of-15 sets have been decided by more than two games.

Shelton's serve has proved to be a tough ask for Sinner, and on the other side of the coin, Shelton's excelled behind his strong first delivery against a weak returner. If the Italian's serve is to fall off, as it did against Dimitrov, where he served an abysmal 58% thanks to his undisclosed injury, the script here could easily flip.

I'm a big believer in Shelton here, particularly with Sinner ailing, and if he's to serve that poorly again he stands a good chance of losing.

I'll back Shelton on the game spread with a bite out of the moneyline to protect against a retirement.

Pick: Shelton +4.5 Games (-115 to -130; DraftKings), Shelton ML +250 (0.5u)

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