In a rematch of the French Open final, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz meet in the Wimbledon final on Sunday, July 13.
Will Sinner solve his Alcaraz problem on one of the game's biggest stages, or will Alcaraz achieve the Wimbledon three-peat and stymie the Italian once more?
Below, you can find three Wimbledon predictions and best bets for the 13th edition of Sinner vs Alcaraz.
Wimbledon Best Bets — Sinner vs Alcaraz
- Sinner-Alcaraz Over 40.5
- First Set Winner — Jannik Sinner (-105; DraftKings)
- Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline (-105; BetMGM)
Sinner vs Alcaraz Predictions, Wimbledon Picks
Sinner vs Alcaraz Over/Under Prediction
While Alcaraz has won the last five meetings between these two, only one of those matches was a straight-set victory for the Spaniard (this year's ATP 1000 event in Rome).
Also, three of the four head-to-head matches these two have played at Grand Slams have gone the distance, covering this number in the process.
I expect this to be a tight four-set match, at minimum, as fireworks happen every time these rivals face off.
Pick: Over 40.5
Sinner vs Alcaraz First Set Pick
Carlos Alcaraz has played a few more sets at the All England Club than he would have liked these past two weeks.
The Spaniard has dropped five sets throughout the tournament; Alcaraz has a tendency — even against Sinner — to get better as the match progresses as the opponent wears down.
Alcaraz has defeated Sinner in their last five encounters. In four of them, the Italian won the first set only to end up losing the match.
Pick: First Set Winner, Jannik Sinner (-105, DraftKings)
Sinner vs Alcaraz Moneyline Prediction
Jannik Sinner has a Carlos Alcaraz problem. This wasn't always the case — from 2021-2023, Sinner had the head-to-head advantage (4-3).
It's been a different story since 2024 as Sinner has dropped five straight matches to Alcaraz. The odd part about it is that 2024 is when Sinner hit his peak form, winning two majors and rising to world No. 1 status.
We're at the point where Sinner annihilates anyone who isn't Alcaraz — I see that trend continuing in Sunday's final. Not to mention, Alcaraz is a perfect 5-for-5 in Grand Slam championships.
Sinner is the betting favorite at the time of writing (-115), so I'll happily grab Alcaraz at near plus money as he goes for his third straight Wimbledon title.
The Spaniard has faced little resistance in this tournament outside of a bizarre first-round encounter with the now-retired Fabio Fognini.
It's been a similar story for the Italian, who made easy work of Novak Djokovic and Ben Shelton. Sinner, of course, was bailed out big time in the Round of 16 when Grigor Dimitrov suffered an untimely pectoral injury after taking the first two sets.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline (-105, BetMGM)
