U.S. Open Betting Picks: Leylah Fernandez vs. Sonya Kenin & Olga Govortsova vs. Sloane Stephens (Thursday, Sept. 3)

Leylah Fernandez +4.5 games (-125) vs. Sonya Kenin

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This should be a fascinating battle between two similar-style players at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Neither player has super power, but both possess a wide repertoire of shots in their arsenal.

Kenin has accomplished much more in her short career on Tour, but Fernandez has endless talent for a 17-year-old. Her tennis IQ and maturity are far beyond her years.

In order to win this match, Fernandez will ultimately need to win points off of her second serve. That can be tough at times for the 5-foot-4 Canadian, who struggles to generate power or spin when she has to take something off her second serve.

When at her best, Kenin is masterful at playing angles and maintaining a steady level of play. However, she seems to still be rounding into form a bit. Kenin did just lose a match in straight sets to Alize Cornet, whose game resembles that of Fernandez.

Fernandez will also get to a lot more balls and defend at a much higher level than Kenin’s first round opponent, Yanina Wickmayer.

Kenin should advance here but I think Fernandez can take a set or force a tiebreak. That should be enough to cash the +4.5 games spread in their first ever meeting.

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Olga Govortsova +138 vs Sloane Stephens

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Fading American Sloane Stephens has been a cash cow since her quarterfinal appearance at the French Open last year. Since then, she is just 7-13 as a favorite. Stephens' Round 1 win came against Mihaela Buzarnescu, who was coming off an 11-month competitive tennis break. That victory didn't tell me much.

Stephens has just not looked like her typical defensive, counter-attacking self all year. Her energy level has been very low in every match, and she seems far away from reaching peak match fitness.

At some point, Stephens will return to her elite form; she has too much talent not to. And I know the American has performed well at majors with zero notice, but I just don't see it this year with her current match fitness.

Meanwhile, Govortsova has flashed impressive form throughout 2020. She won an ITF event earlier this year and has performed well in all three Tour events she played in, notching at least one win in each. She did lose each of her previous two meetings against Stephens, but those matches came in 2013 and 2016.

Based on recent form, Govortsova can stay with this version of Stephens in any rally. In what I make a true coin flip, I'll gladly take the price on the Belarusian, who will look to continue the success that mothers have enjoyed so far at this year's US Open.

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