Sobel’s British Open Final Round Matchups: Stenson or Spieth in the Weather?

With potentially heavy rains and high winds providing an advantage to earlier starters in Sunday’s final round of The Open, we can at least examine head-to-head matchups within pairings, where neither side will have an edge.

Let’s get right to my three favorites for the final day.

Xander Schauffele (-150) over Cameron Smith

I’ve been impressed with Smith so far this week, after a tumultuous season that can only be described as disappointing so far.

At some point, though, I think his luck runs out — if it didn’t already Saturday, with an even-par 71. Schauffele has been a top-10 machine at majors, based largely on some gritty final rounds. Give me the known commodity with X-man going comparatively low once again.

Henrik Stenson (+105) over Jordan Spieth

We all know about Spieth’s weekend struggles this year, though he stopped the bleeding a bit with a third-round 69 on Saturday. But this is less of a Spieth fade than a backing of Stenson.

With that impending weather, I love the Swede to bang low-missile 3-woods off the tee and remain mostly unconcerned with the day’s biggest concern. In fact, if you can find a top-five bet for Stenson – who’s currently T-12 – I don’t hate that play.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (-115) over Byeong Hun An

So far this week, Fitzpatrick has posted rounds of 71-69-70, which seems out of character for him at a major. As I wrote entering the week, he posted low rounds of 67, 65 and 68 at the Masters, PGA Championship and U.S. Open, respectively, but high rounds of 78, 76 and 72 at those events.

Never know which number is coming, but I’ll bet on the high ceiling here and expect a low one. An could be out of steam; he was 4-under through eight holes Saturday, but finished with just a 1-under 70.