Bailey’s 2019 RBC Heritage Matchup Bets: Kevin Kisner vs. Jordan Spieth

I'm not much of a longshot bettor when it comes to the PGA tour, so I tend to focus on head-to-head matchups instead.

In this piece, I'll be using the golf metrics in the FantasyLabs PGA Models as well as other golf metrics in search of potentially exploitable matchups each week.

Hideki Matsuyama got off to a slow start at the Masters and couldn't catch up to Jason Day, but Kevin Kisner was able to take down Patrick Reed, which still put us in the black given he was a +140 dog.

Let's dive into this week's card at RBC Heritage.

All odds as of Tuesday afternoon.

Kevin Kisner Over Jordan Spieth (-105)

In some of the metrics I am weighing this week, Kisner is entering this tournament in better recent form than Spieth, per our Models:

• Recent Adjusted Round Score: 68.1 vs. 69.1
• Greens in Regulation: 69.1% vs. 60.6%
• Birdies per tournament: 16.8 vs. 15.3
• Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -0.5 vs. +2.3

Additionally, over Kisner's past 24 rounds, he ranks 26th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 24th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 14th in Total Strokes Gained. Spieth ranks 74th, 111th and 61st over that same span.

It's also worth noting that this course has five par 4s that are between 400 and 450 yards, and Kisner ranks second in par-4 efficiency from that range compared to 78th for Spieth over their past 24 rounds (per Fantasy National).

Considering this course doesn't require a strong off-the-tee game, it wouldn't be shocking to see Spieth potentially rebound here, but iron play is also important and Spieth has lost strokes on approach in four of his six events in which Shotlink data is available.

I prefer the consistency Kisner has shown this season with seven top-28 finishes in his past seven events.

I was able to get this line at +100 when the lines were first released, but I wouldn't bet it any worse than the current -105 being offered.

Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National