Perry’s Genesis Invitational Betting Odds & Picks: Should You Bet Patrick Reed at Riviera?
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Reed tees off at Torrey Pines.
Pebble Beach didn’t go as we hoped.
Nick Taylor led wire to wire without breaking a sweat to cash at 125-1.
The only good thing we can say is that we’re finally out of the pro/am, multi-course rotations and can focus in on one of the best tracks the PGA Tour has to offer, Riviera.
Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles measures in at 7,340 yards for a par 71 and it ranks as one of the toughest tests from tee to green on tour. Each year, it tends to have some of the hardest fairways and greens to hit.
Since players often struggle to find the fairways and greens, I put more of an emphasis on scrambling at Riviera than I would during a normal tournament.
On easier courses, that doesn’t come into play as much, because if players are scrambling, then they aren’t usually creating enough birdie chances to win anyway. But on this course, the winner will likely need to find a way to get up and down five or six times per round.
This course has also favored bombers in recent years. Bubba Watson has won three times in the last six years. Dustin Johnson and J.B. Holmes also have wins here during that time frame.
Prior to that run though, shorter hitters like Steve Stricker, Bill Haas, Aaron Baddeley and John Merrick also had success here. When in doubt, it’s probably best to favor length, but a shorter hitter who stays out of trouble can also contend.
This is about as strong as of a field as we can expect to see for a regular tour stop. Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm are all under that +1000 number with Rory opening as a slight favorite at +750. Rahm and Thomas are right behind at +900.
Dustin Johnson is next in line at +1200 before we get to Tiger Woods at +1800.
Brooks Koepka headlines the next tier at +2200. He has no real form and no history at Riviera, so that’s why the number is double his number at the majors. Despite that, he may be a popular pick, but I’ll steer clear.
Along with Koepka, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Bubba Watson and Patrick Cantlay are all available in that +2000 range. Bubba may be the most tempting for me at +2800 after finishing third in Phoenix two weeks ago. This is one of his favorite spots on tour.
The Mid Tier
There is a bit of connection to the Masters here at Riviera. In the past 17 years, Watson, Phil Mickelson, Mike Weir and Adam Scott have won a combined eight times. The combination of strong tee to green game coupled with the ability to scramble plays a factor in both events.
With that said, I’ll take chance on another past Masters champ in Patrick Reed at +5000. Reed hasn’t played here often and the results weren’t great when he did, so this is more of play on his current form. He’s been inside the top six in two of his three PGA tour starts in 2020.
His previous win came during the FedEx Cup playoffs at Liberty National, another place Adam Scott has won, so there may be a slight connection to that course as well.
We’ll take a chance here with Max Homa at 115-1. Homa is in a great run of form with top 20 in each of his last three starts. He’s also won at another strong tee to green test in Quail Hollow.
I’ll also back another bomber in Cameron Champ at 110-1. Champ is nearly a lock to gain strokes off the tee. His form has been solid as well and he looked like he was headed for another high finish at Pebble Beach, but he was caught in the windy conditions late on Sunday and plummeted down the leaderboard.
Overall, this is a really light card for me starting out. Rory, Rahm and Thomas are all in great form and can easily wreck things. I’ll keep an eye out for some live adds, though.
With so many good players here, it’s likely quite a few will be near the top of the leaderboard. That could help us find a good price or two on some lesser known guys playing well and lurking a couple shots back.
The Genesis Card
- Patrick Reed +5000 (.66 units)
- Cameron Champ +11000 (.3 units)
- Max Homa +11500 (.29 units)
Total Stake: 1.25 units