Golf Picks: 15 Travelers Championship Bets, Sleepers, Matchups & Props

The PGA TOUR has been pure rock-and-roll since it returned from a three-month hiatus. We've seen two star-studded fields go down to the wire and the golf-betting community has been absolutely buzzing since the TOUR teed off two weeks ago at Colonial.

The expectations will be quite high for the Travelers but we've got another Major-level field ahead of us so there's a good chance that TPC River Highlands will play host to some serious drama this week.

Here are our favorite bets, from outrights to sleepers to matchups to props, for the 2020 Travelers Championship:

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Outright Bets

Jason Sobel

Bryson DeChambeau (+1250, $10 bet wins $125)

The biggest – pun intended – talk in golf over the past few weeks has been Bryson’s beefiness, as he bulked up another 20-25 pounds during the break. The most impressive part of this, though, isn’t the new physique or the ungodly driving distances.

It’s the fact that he’s contended for titles during the past two weeks on courses which neutralize his entire advantage, finishing T-3 and T-8. After the latter of those results, he said, “If you want to be the No. 1 player in the world, you’ve got to learn how to adapt and I think that’s what I’m starting to learn.”

Granted, TPC River Highlands isn’t exactly a 7,800-yard behemoth, but at times he’ll finally be able to “Unleash the Kraken” as he says, using his increased swing speed to his advantage.

As I’ve said multiple times recently, I’m expecting a monster second half of the year for DeChambeau and I believe it will start this week at a venue where he owns top-10 results in each of the past two years.

Josh Perry

Marc Leishman (+5500)

I’m going with the same logic that led me to Webb Simpson last week at the RBC Heritage.

Marc Leishman was solid with the approach at Colonial, but he struggled with the short game. We saw a similar performance from him early in the year at the Sony and he bounced back to win at Torrey Pines at similar odds in a strong field.

He’s also won here in the past, so he should have a decent level of comfort if he can work his way into contention.

Bryan Mears

Collin Morikawa (+4000)

I do think this is The Bryson Week ™, but alas he’s down to just +1250, which is a steep price to pay for anyone these days given how loaded PGA TOUR fields are. Still, for what it’s worth, he’s the top golfer in my model to win even though he’s behind JT and Rory most places.

But let’s go down the board and play the market. Two weeks ago, Collin Morikawa was 40-50/1, made a playoff against Daniel Berger and was a three-foot brutal putt away from forcing another hole and potentially winning the darn thing. He showed why he’s such an exciting golfer: That swing is just so beautiful; he seemingly never misses on his irons.

As a result, he dipped to like 20-1 last week at Harbour Town, and after a mediocre showing he’s back down in the 40-range this week, although nothing at all has changed.

And honestly, TPC River Highlands fits him better than Harbour Town, which honestly kind of played as a joke. With no wind and rain overnight softening it, it obviously played incredibly easy and let everyone go low.

River Highlands is scorable, but I do think ball-striking will be harder to come by and thus emphasize Morikawa’s strengths.

Further, putting is likely to be more random this week, and that’s his problem in his game. If you’re giving me one of the best ball-strikers in the world on a course that minimizes his weaknesses at 40/1?

Yeah, I’ll go back to the well, as uninspiring as that may be.

Collin Wilson

Bubba Watson (+3500)

I first want to say that I'm joining Mr. Sobel and taking Bryson DeChambeau any way I can get him this week. Driving distance, both long and short-term, are predictive factors at TPC River Highlands, along with course birdies.

Combine those stats with course history and DeChambeau checks all the boxes.

Another golfer that hits all those notes is three-time winner Bubba Watson.

As Sobel mentioned on The Action Network Podcast, Watson's right-to-left game is key at TPC River Highlands. Not only has Watson won this event outright twice since 2015, but he's in great form after playing two courses that do not fit his game.

Bubba is a bomber and if you blend that with his recent Strokes Gained: Approach numbers, he stands to be a big factor this weekend.

Sleeper Picks

Jason Sobel

Brendan Steele (+25000, $10 bet wins $2,500)

The term “sleeper” is so subjective in the betting world.

Is Abraham Ancer (+3300) still considered a sleeper? I don’t think so, not after how he’s played recently. What about Joaquin Niemann (+4000)? Nah, I don’t think he works, either. Joel Dahmen (+10000)? You could probably make a case for him, but I’m going to dig even deeper.

Steele is a course-horse type, meaning that once he starts playing well at one of ‘em, he usually repeats. At TPC River Highlands, he owns seven top-25 results in nine starts. I don’t mind sprinkling a little on him as a massive outright, but he’s got plenty of value as a top-10/20, FRL and DFS play.

Josh Perry

Doc Redman (+25000)

Redman struck the ball as well as anyone last week and simply couldn’t get his short game together. It was his best week with the irons by far this season and he’s been trending toward a high finish as he's gained strokes with his approach in nine events in 2020. Whatever was working prior to the hiatus, he’s been able to carry over the last two weeks.

Redman is not a great putter, but he does gain strokes in about half of his starts. It just comes down to lining up his current iron play with one of those solid putting weeks.

Bryan Mears

Ryan Moore (+14000)

It definitely seems like a week where another stud is going to win; a lot of these top golfers seem to be ramping up back into form quicker than maybe thought.

But let’s get to some sleepers anyway. For what it’s worth, I like a few of these lower-mid guys like Scottie Scheffler and Corey Conners. But let’s talk about Ryan Moore.

This is a ball-striking course, as I mentioned here, and Moore is third in the entire field behind Jim Furyk and Chez Reavie in driving accuracy. He also has excellent history here at River Highlands, finishing in the top-seven in three of his last seven visits. Something clearly catches his eye, and he’s been able to really nail fairways and greens, which is most of the battle here at this track.

I think he’s a fine bet to win — he’s cheaper than he should be — but on these sleepers, I like to find values and then bet more on top-20s (or 30s or 40s at DraftKings). Moore is over 10/1 to bank a top-10, which he’s clearly shown he can do if his game is on. That’s solid value.

Collin Wilson

Chris Stroud (+25000) 

Looking for a longshot to roster in DFS, bet for a top-20 finish or take a punt on at a huge outright number?

Look no further than journeyman Chris Stroud, who had missed seven consecutive cuts until he finished inside the top-30 at the star-studded RBC Heritage.

Stroud's game looked good at Harbour Town — he finished inside the top-30 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he's got some decent course history with  three top-20 finishes at TPC River Highlands.

I'll take some money out of my pocket for a cheap longshot in good form on a course that he likes.

Matchups

Jason Sobel

Patrick Reed over Bubba Watson (-105)

There’s going to be a lot of love for Bubba this week — and maybe there should be, considering he’s won this event three times.

I don’t necessarily dislike him this week, on the heels of decent results at two courses which don’t suit his game whatsoever, but I really like Reed, who can attack this course with his trademark slinging draw, which should work perfectly around here.

He doesn’t have the resume of Bubba at this event — nobody does — but three top-30 results in the last four years prove Reed can play some solid golf at this one.

Odds via the Westgate SuperBook.

Josh Perry

Brian Harman (-120) over Kevin Kisner 

Brian Harman is coming off a couple solid top-30 finishes since the restart and now he heads to one of his better courses. Harman has made the cut in seven of eight starts at the Travelers and recorded a top-10 finish in three of his last five.

Kisner doesn’t usually play here and has finished behind Harman each of the last two weeks, so I'm fine laying a little juice with the guy who is playing better and heading to a comfort zone at TPC River Highlands.

Odds via Westgate SuperBook.

Collin Wilson

Brooks Koepka (+105) over Webb Simpson

Editor's Note: Brooks Koepka has withdrawn from the 2020 Travelers Championship.

Backing Brooks Koepka in a non-major isn't a long-term gambling win, but Brooks seems dialed in at the moment and is racing up the board in plenty of Strokes Gained metrics.

He finished 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and first in off the tee at Heritage and his first shot on Hole No. 9 at Harbour Town should have gamblers salivating for the Travelers.

Koepka has never missed a cut at TPC River Highlands, while Simpson missed the number thanks to a 77 during the second round in 2018. Webb does have three top-10 finishes over the past decade, but I think this price is inflated after his victory at Harbour Town.

Distance off the tee box is important here and Webb is negative in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this calendar year.

Bryan Mears

I honestly don’t find value on any of the props listed at DraftKings, FanDuel, Parx or other legal U.S. books. I think they’re mostly priced correctly — or close enough where the juice effectively removes the value.

My approach if I had to bet them this week would be to focus on the top guys who are getting plus money. Collin highlighted one above in Brooks over Webb.

That should be even money, so +112 is fine value on Brooks. Jon Rahm is a dog against Justin Thomas; that’s a coin flip. Collin Morikawa is even money against Abraham Ancer.

I’ll probably steer clear of these posted ones this week, but when in doubt take plus money if you think it’s even. (Obviously.)

Prop Bets

Jason Sobel

Joel Dahmen Top-20 Finish (+350)

In four of his last five starts, Dahmen cashed top-20 bets, finishing 14th-5th-5th-19th until last week’s T-48. That might sound like he’s moving in the wrong direction, but it was only a final-round 75 which dropped him from a share of fifth place through 54 holes.

I’m willing to call that an outlier and believe that he’s ready to contend once again — and I love this price for a leaderboard spot he’s been reaching consistently.

Josh Perry

Paul Casey Top-20 Finish (+175)

Normally I hate backing a guy off a break like this, but Casey really isn’t someone who grinds it out and tries to maintain his form each week.

Casey picks and chooses his spots and has no problem showing up after three or four weeks without missing a beat. We talk about this being a Bubba course, but few have been more consistent here than Casey.

He finished inside the top-20 in all five of his trips to TPC River Highlands, including four top-5 finishes during that stretch.

Bryan Mears

Phil Mickelson to miss cut (-120)

Sorry Phil, I got to take the value here this week.

Phil just isn’t in form, if the Charles Schwab was any indication. He missed the cut in that one, hitting 58.3% of his greens (terrible) and 39.3% of the fairways (atrocious). You know what the most important thing is at River Highlands? Oh yeah … hitting fairways and greens.

He also doesn’t often play this course. He did last year, which was his first visit since 2003. He missed the cut and posted very poor numbers.

AND … the dude just turned 50! Phil is a legend; it hurts to do this. But even money on him to miss the cut given his form and this loaded field — that’s silly.

Collin Wilson

Albatross in the tournament: Yes (+1600) 

The eagles should be flying at TPC River Highlands. After watching the PGA TOUR go birdie-crazy after the weather delay at Harbour Town, it is worth asking if that form will carry over to the Travelers.

The weather forecast calls for winds under 10 MPH with chances of rain. Damp greens may allow the players to take direct aim at the pins.

Now, the albatross rate at TPC River Highlands does not scream value here, so this will be a small, for-fun investment as the +1600 number does not offer proper value considering how few double-eagles we've seen at this course.

Trevor Immelman recorded the first-ever double-eagle at TPC River Highlands with a 246-yard second shot on the 13th hole here in 2014. Troy Merritt also accomplished the feat on the 15th hole.

Those two holes will be the targets for the double-eagle as the bombers will have the chance to pull off the rare feat.