2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Updated Odds, 5 Outright Picks for Matt Fitzpatrick & More

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The PGA TOUR regular season came to a close with Tom Kim rolling through the Wyndham field. The 20-year-old was always going to make it to the TOUR at some point, but that train arrived ahead of schedule as he locked himself into this week's playoff opener with the win.

Now, we shift our attention to a familiar event in the FedEx St. Jude Championship, which makes its debut as a playoff event this season.

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The Course

TPC Southwind hosts a playoff event for just the first time, but it’s a course we all know after holding the St. Jude Classic for three decades.

The course measures 7,244 yards for a par-70 and can play fairly tough at times with water in play on about half the holes.

We tend to see the same people pop up on the leaderboard each year here. Dustin Johnson and Daniel Berger both have won twice here recently. And prior to Brooks Koepka’s win, he had two other top-three finishes. None of those guys will be around this time, but overall, it's been a course where history has mattered to some extent.

Because of its previous placement on the calendar, many of the top names hadn’t played it much before the WGC years. The St. Jude Classic was usually held the week before the U.S. Open, so many of the upper echelon players tended to pick an extra week of preparation over playing here.

A combo of length and accuracy is required off the tee with accuracy getting a slight edge. Also having some comfort on Bermuda greens has been a benefit.

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The Favorites

Rory McIlroy opens at the top of the board at around +900. This will be his first start since letting The Open slip away last month. Southwind has been a spot where he's done alright. He held the 54-hole lead in 2019 before drifting back to fourth.

After McIlroy, we have a large group hanging out in that +1600 to +1800 range including Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. Thomas won in 2020, but outside of that, we haven't seen these players in contention here before. Of the group, Cantlay and Schauffele have been in the best form. Schauffele has won two of his last three starts, and Cantlay hasn't finished outside the top 15 in the past three months.

We have a strong group in the +2000s, as well, including Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Jordan Spieth and Sam Burns. Burns lost in a playoff here last year, and Fitzpatrick has placed sixth or better in two of his last three starts on the course. When it comes to form, Finau is the obvious standout, winning his last two events, but this hasn't been a good spot for him recently. He's finished outside the top 25 in all four appearances at the course.

We'll go to Fitzpatrick up here at +2200 on Caesars. He's got one of the better combos of form and past history here. The Playoffs have never really been a time where guys find their games as the winners tend to enter firing on all cylinders and ready to go.

Southwind isn't really a course that leaves much margin for error either. With water looming on many holes, mistakes can be punished to a greater extent than normal, so players need to come in sharp. Fitzpatrick fits that bill.

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The Mid-Tier

In this range, I'm going with Tyrrell Hatton again at +6000 on WynnBet. Hatton was eighth last week and fifth overall on approach in the Wyndham field. This followed up an 11th at The Open. The history hasn't been great here, but it improved last year with a 17th-place finish. Overall, he's usually a solid driver, and the irons appear to be in good shape coming in, so I'll play him once more at this price.

The Longshots

We'll start here with Taylor Pendrith at 100-1 on WynnBet. He played well again last week, finishing 13th and making it four straight times he's finished inside the top 15 since his injury. The Playoffs aren't really a great spot for longshots, but this first event is likely their best chance with many of the top names playing for the first time since The Open. There's an outside chance some of them aren't completely dialed in.

I'm also going with Cameron Davis at 130-1 on DraftKings. Davis has been playing well for a while now, finishing 16th or better in his past four starts. His debut here last year didn't go well, but overall, his game is in better shape this time. This field will be a step up in class for him from his recent results, but he's got the ball striking ability to play well here if the putter shows up.

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The St. Jude Championship Card

• Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 (1.5 units)
• Tyrrell Hatton +6000 (.6 units)
• Taylor Pendrith +10000 (.33 units)
• Cameron Davis +13000  (.25 units)

Total Stake: 2.68 units