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2022 Fortinet Championship Updated Odds, Expert Picks: Bet Rookie Taylor Montgomery in Napa

2022 Fortinet Championship Updated Odds, Expert Picks: Bet Rookie Taylor Montgomery in Napa article feature image
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Via Steve Dykes/Getty Images. Pictured: Taylor Montgomery.

  • The new PGA TOUR season starts on Thursday with the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort and Spa in Napa, California.
  • Action Network golf analyst Joshua Perry has six outright picks, including a play on rookie Taylor Montgomery.
  • Check out his picks and analysis below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Fortinet Championship odds via WynnBet
Player Odds
Max Homa +1600
Corey Conners +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2200
Maverick McNealy +2800
Sahith Theegala +2800
Taylor Pendrith +2800
Cam Davis +3300
Davis Riley +3500
Emiliano Grillo +4000
Justin Suh +4000
Taylor Montgomery +4000
Brendan Steele +4500
Cameron Champ +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Tom Hoge +5000
Jason Day +5500
Trey Mullinax +5500
Webb Simpson +5500
Wyndham Clark +5500
Alex Noren +6000
Thomas Detry +6000
Nick Hardy +6600
Denny McCarthy +7000
J.J. Spaun +7000
Taylor Moore +7000
Troy Merritt +7000
Chris Kirk +7500
Adam Long +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Andrew Putnam +8000
Carl Yuan +8000
Kevin Streelman +8000
Luke List +8000
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Will Gordon +8000
Lee Hodges +9000
Martin Laird +9000
Michael Kim +9000
Austin Eckroat +10000
Beau Hossler +10000
Brandon Wu +10000
Callum Tarren +10000
Charley Hoffman +10000
Chris Gotterup +10000
Joseph Bramlett +10000
Mark Hubbard +10000
Matt Kuchar +10000
Michael Gligic +10000
Rickie Fowler +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Stewart Cink +10000
Adam Svensson +11000
Chez Reavie +11000
David Lipsky +11000
Stephan Jaeger +11000
Adam Schenk +12500
Chesson Hadley +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
Harris English +12500
Hayden Buckley +12500
James Hahn +12500
Joel Dahmen +12500
John Huh +12500
MJ Daffue +12500
Matthew NeSmith +12500
S.H. Kim +12500
Tyler Duncan +12500
Zecheng Dou +12500
Augusto Nunez +15000
Brendon Todd +15000
Byeong Hun An +15000
C.T. Pan +15000
Danny Lee +15000
Danny Willett +15000
Doc Redman +15000
Doug Ghim +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
Lucas Glover +15000
Mackenzie Hughes +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Matti Schmid +15000
Nate Lashley +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Russell Knox +15000
Sam Ryder +15000
Sam Stevens +15000
Vince Whaley +15000
Davis Thompson +17500
Harry Hall +17500
Justin Lower +17500
Michael Thompson +17500
Peter Malnati +17500
Ryan Armour +17500
Scott Piercy +17500
Austin Smotherman +20000
Henrik Norlander +20000
Vincent Norrman +20000
Austin Cook +22500
Ben Martin +22500
Ben Taylor +22500
Brice Garnett +22500
Cameron Percy +22500
Kevin Roy +22500
Kevin Yu +22500
Matthias Schwab +22500
Nick Taylor +22500
Robert Streb +22500
Zac Blair +22500
Ben Griffin +25000
Brent Grant +25000
David Lingmerth +25000
Kelly Kraft +25000
Paul Haley II +25000
Ryan Moore +25000
Chad Ramey +27500
Erik Barnes +27500
Brandon Hagy +30000
Brandon Matthews +30000
Garrick Higgo +30000
Kevin Chappell +30000
Kramer Hickok +30000
Nico Echavarria +30000
Philip Knowles +30000
Brian Stuard +35000
Kevin Tway +35000
Seung-Yul Noh +35000
Aaron Baddeley +40000
Anders Albertson +40000
Brandt Snedeker +40000
Chris Stroud +40000
Eric Cole +40000
Harrison Endycott +40000
Harry Higgs +40000
Jimmy Walker +40000
John Augenstein +40000
Richy Werenski +40000
Scott Harrington +40000
Sung Kang +40000
Carson Young +50000
Dylan Wu +50000
Jim Herman +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Ryan Brehm +50000
Tano Goya +50000
Trevor Cone +50000
Andrew Landry +60000
Kyle Stanley +60000
Kyle Westmoreland +60000
Tyson Alexander +60000
Jason Dufner +75000
Nick Watney +75000
Trevor Werbylo +75000
Alex Lee +100000
Jacob Bridgeman +100000
Taylor Lowe +100000
Scott de Borba +250000

 

After a couple weeks away, the PGA TOUR begins its 2022-23 season this week. This will mark the final year of the wraparound schedule we’ve come to know over the past decade as the TOUR will shift to a calendar year version in 2024.

The season opener looks like many events we’ll see in the fall — a bit devoid of star power. Most of the game’s top Europeans are playing across the pond while the rest of the game’s elite are prepping for the Presidents Cup next week.

But with the additions of the recent Korn Ferry grads, we’ll see some interesting value opportunities in this type of field.

Bet the Fortinet Championship, Win $200 (No Matter What!)

The Course

Silverado Resort and Spa (North) measures at around 7,200 yards for a par 72 and has hosted this event since 2014.

The tee ball has been a strong trait of the previous winners here. Whether they bomb it like Cameron Champ or find an accuracy/length balance like Brendan Steele and Emiliano Grillo, having the driver dialed in this week will be key. The winner last season, Max Homa, had a solid all around year, but the tee ball was where he ranked the best on TOUR, finishing 25th in Strokes Gained for that category.

Stewart Cink also cited improved length as his reason for winning. All four par fives are short enough that a solid drive will set up easy birdie chances.

The short game and comfort on poa annua greens will be a nice bonus as we shift back to California this week. Adam Hadwin, Brandt Snedeker and Kevin Na all have finished second here and aren’t necessarily known for their ability to drive it long.

The Favorites

Homa, Hideki Matsuyama and Corey Conners all make up this top section, opening in the +1600-1800 range. All three will also make the trip to the Presidents Cup next week as well. Homa’s obviously got the win here, and Matsuyama has a pretty solid history as well with three top 20s in four starts, so these guys are definite threats here.

I’m not really interested in betting them at these prices though and will hope they’re all looking ahead to the competition next week.

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The Midtier

We’ll open here with Sahith Theegala who opened as high as +4000 and quickly got cut to +3000 on BetRivers. Theegala will be among the most popular plays this week.

He’s coming off a strong rookie year in which he reached the TOUR Championship at East Lake, which qualifies him for all four majors next year. He’s also got the California ties as a Pepperdine alum. Outside of those top three names, I figured he’d slot in that next range at around +2000, so the opening number was a gift, and even that +3000 is higher that expected.

Next up is Taylor Montgomery who also had his opening number slashed from +6600 to +5000 pretty quickly. Montgomery is the guy off the Korn Ferry Tour I expect the most from. He didn’t have any weaknesses last season on the lower circuit outside of accuracy with the driver.

But he was inside the top 20 in distance, GIR, putting, scrambling and birdies, so he’s got the complete game. He’s shown in a few limited starts that his game can hold up. He’s also got the West Coast experience, playing out of Las Vegas. I imagine if his form carries over this fall, we’ll see him near the favorites when the Shriners rolls around.

We’ll also play Chez Reavie at +8000 on BetRivers. Reavie’s ball striking to close last year flew under the radar a bit. He gained strokes on approach in his final seven events and picked up a win in the Barracuda stableford event. He’s shown some strong results in the state in the past, notably that win and a top five at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach.

The putting and short game were in the best place to close the year, so maybe a shift back to poa annua greens will provide some help there.

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The Longshots

In the eight previous years on this course, three winners came from the triple-digit range, so it’s not a bad place to take a couple shots.

We’ll start here with Patrick Rodgers at 100/1 on BetMGM. Rodgers has finished sixth here twice and has made the weekend each of the past five years. Rodgers is a pretty good driver, and the putter is usually solid, so this is one of the better spots for him.

I’ll also go with Brandon Wu on DraftKings at 130/1. Wu had a solid rookie season where he made his way into the playoffs. He closed last year pretty well too, finishing inside the top 10 at the Scottish Open and Wyndham. He’s another California guy who played his college golf at Stanford.

Being a resident isn’t everything, but four of the past eight champions have called the state home including Homa, Champ and two-time winner Brendan Steele, so the West Coast edge has been helpful.

We’ll also take a shot here with Austin Smotherman at 200/1 on BetMGM. Smotherman is another former California resident who now resides in Dallas. His ball striking was up to the PGA TOUR level last season as a rookie, but the short game wasn’t.

He managed to maintain status though thanks to a few LIV defections at the end of the year. Poa was by far his best putting surface last season as he hovered around TOUR average on it. So we’ll take a chance with him in a spot that might be more comfortable.

Fortinet Card

  • Sahith Theegala +3000 (1.1 units)
  • Taylor Montgomery +5000 (.66 units)
  • Chez Reavie +8000 (.41 units)
  • Patrick Rodgers +10000 (.33 units)
  • Brandon Wu +13000 (.25 units)
  • Austin Smotherman +20000 (.16 units)

Total Stake: 2.91 units

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