Memorial Tournament 2022 Odds & Picks: Viktor Hovland, 3 Others Who Fit Muirfield Village

Memorial Tournament 2022 Odds & Picks: Viktor Hovland, 3 Others Who Fit Muirfield Village article feature image

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Viktor Hovland.

  • An elite field makes its way to Muirfield Village this week for the 2022 Memorial Tournament.
  • Jon Rahm is favored and is one of many players who have the skill set to thrive this week.
  • Matt Vincenzi lays out his betting picks and course breakdown below.
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2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

Jon Rahm+900
Rory McIlroy+1100
Patrick Cantlay+1500
Jordan Spieth+1800
Xander Schauffele+1800
Cameron Smith+2000
Collin Morikawa+2000
Shane Lowry+2200
Viktor Hovland+2200
Hideki Matsuyama+2500
Matthew Fitzpatrick+2500
Will Zalatoris+2800
Cameron Young+3300
Im Sung-jae+3300
Max Homa+3300
Joaquin Niemann+3500
Davis Riley+4000
Billy Horschel+5000
Corey Conners+5000
Daniel Berger+5000
Mito Guillermo Pereira+5000
Patrick Reed+5000
Abraham Ancer+6000
Adam Scott+6000
Chris Kirk+6000
Jason Day+6000
Keegan Bradley+6000
Seamus Power+6000
Aaron Wise+6600
Bryson DeChambeau+6600
Marc Leishman+6600
Matt Kuchar+6600
Alexander Noren+7000
Gary Woodland+7000
Brian Harman+8000
Si Woo Kim+8000
Tom Hoge+8000
Rickie Fowler+9000
Ryan Palmer+9000
Cameron Champ+10000
Cameron Tringale+10000
Cheng-Tsung Pan+10000
Lanto Griffin+10000
Adam Hadwin+12500
Anirban Lahiri+12500
Brendan Steele+12500
Cameron Davis+12500
Harris English+12500
Jhonattan Vegas+12500
Keith Mitchell+12500
Keun-Ho Lee+12500
Lucas Herbert+12500
Luke List+12500
Russell Knox+12500
Scott Stallings+12500
Sepp Straka+12500
Stewart Cink+12500
Troy Merritt+12500
Aaron Rai+15000
Adam Long+15000
Charles Howell III+15000
Denny McCarthy+15000
Erik Van Rooyen+15000
Joel Dahmen+15000
JT Poston+15000
Kevin Streelman+15000
Lucas Glover+15000
Matt Jones+15000
Matthew NeSmith+15000
Matthew Wolff+15000
Pat Perez+15000
Alex Smalley+20000
Andrew D. Putnam+20000
Beau Hossler+20000
Danny Willett+20000
David Lipsky+20000
Doug Ghim+20000
Francesco Molinari+20000
Kurt Kitayama+20000
Mackenzie Hughes+20000
Patrick Rodgers+20000
Patton Kizzire+20000
Sahith Theegala+20000
Emiliano Grillo+25000
Martin Laird+25000
Nate Lashley+25000
Ryan Moore+25000
Adam Svensson+30000
Brandon Wu+30000
Brandt Snedeker+30000
Carlos Ortiz+30000
Chad Ramey+30000
Charley Hoffman+30000
Danny Lee+30000
Hudson Swafford+30000
Min Woo Lee+30000
Peter Malnati+30000
Rafael Cabrera Bello+30000
Taylor Moore+30000
Sam Ryder+30000
Adam Schenk+35000
Garrick Higgo+35000
Harry Higgs+35000
Luke Donald+35000
Wyndham Clark+35000
Justin Lower+40000
Bo Hoag+50000
Brandon Hagy+50000
Camilo Villegas+50000
Chan Kim+50000
Curtis Luck+50000
David Lingmerth+50000
James Piot+50000
Jason Dufner+50000
Jediah Morgan+50000
John Pak+50000
Nick Watney+50000
Robert Streb+50000
Ryan Brehm+50000
William McGirt+50000
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The PGA TOUR heads to Jack's place to play the 2022 Memorial Tournament. In an event that is regarded as one of the most prestigious non-majors of the PGA TOUR season, golf fans should be in store for plenty of fireworks at Muirfield Village this week.

Muirfield Village is a 7,392-yard par 72 located in Dublin, Ohio and features Bentgrass greens. A Jack Nicklaus design, the course was built in 1974. The course can play extremely difficult due to its long rough and lightning-fast greens.

The Memorial Tournament is one of three "invitationals" on the PGA TOUR schedule and will play host to 120 golfers this week. Unsurprisingly, the field is stacked and features many of the top stars on TOUR including Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland.

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Past Winners at Memorial Tournament

  • 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13)
  • 2020: Jon Rahm (-9)
  • 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)
  • 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15)
  • 2017: Jason Dufner (-13)
  • 2016: William McGirt (-15)

Six Key Stats for Muirfield Village

Let's take a look at six key metrics for Muirfield Village to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Jack Nicklaus designs all have one thing in common: They reward the best iron players on TOUR. When designing Muirfield Village, Jack created a second-shot golf course that strongly benefited golfers who could really dial in their approach shots. With that in mind, does it surprise anyone that Tiger Woods won this event five times?

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Cameron Smith (+28.8) (+2000)
  2. Viktor Hovland (+27.5) (+2200)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+24.5) (+3000)
  4. Shane Lowry (+24.1) (+2500)
  5. Max Homa (+23.4) (+4000)

2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking does include approach, but if there is any week to overemphasize Strokes Gained: Approach, this is the week. The statistic also incorporates Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, which will be important considering the rough at Muirfield Village can be exceedingly penal. Morikawa, Jason Dufner and Hideki Matsuyama are some great examples of the prototypical ball strikers who have won at Muirfield Village. I envision another elite ball striker winning this week.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jon Rahm (+47.5) (+1000)
  2. Will Zalatoris (+42.1) (+3000)
  3. Viktor Hovland (+42.1) (+2200)
  4. Cameron Young (+39.7) (+3500)
  5. Max Homa (+37.7) (+4000)

3. Par 4: 450-500

Muirfield Village has some long and difficult par 4s. With four par 5s on the course that should be reachable in two for most of the field, the holes that will separate the contenders from the pack are these difficult par 4s. There are six par 4s between 450-500 yards on the course.

Par 4: 450-500 Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Shane Lowry (+22.6) (+2500)
  2. Max Homa (+19.5) (+4000)
  3. Jon Rahm (+18.6) (+1000)
  4. Cameron Young (+14.7) (+3500)
  5. Gary Woodland (+13.4) (+8000)

4. Good Drives Gained

Driving the ball well will be an important factor. Bombing it off the tee is not a requirement at Muirfield Village, but distance always helps. The rough can get very long, and golfers who can't put the ball in the fairway will fall out of contention quickly. Balanced and consistent drivers of the golf ball should be the targets this week.

Good Drives Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Martin Laird (+39.6) (+27500)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+35.9) (+2200)
  3. Shane Lowry (+34.2) (+2500)
  4. Brendan Steele (+29.9) (+15000)
  5. Mito Pereira (+25.5) (+5500)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) (Fast)

The Bentgrass greens at Muirfield are very fast. The past few years we've seen Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay win the Memorial Tournament, and they are two of the best putters throughout their careers on exceedingly fast greens. This is certainly not a coincidence, and whoever can master these difficult putting surfaces has a major advantage at Jack's place.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) (Fast) Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+29.3) (+1800)
  2. Troy Merritt (+25.8) (+15000)
  3. Alex Noren (+21.8) (+8000)
  4. Rory McIlroy (+19.9) (+1100)
  5. Seamus Power (+18.1) (+6000)

6. Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs

We often see similar leaderboards when events are hosted by Jack Nicklaus designed courses. The model this week will look to incorporate those golfers.

Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Collin Morikawa (+3.2) (+2200)
  2. Patrick Cantlay (+2.8) (+1800)
  3. Jon Rahm (+1.8) (+1000)
  4. Jason Day (+1.6) (+7000)
  5. Adam Scott (+1.5) (+7000)

The Memorial Tournament Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: BS (18%), Par 4: 450-500 (13%), Good Drives Gained (18%), SG: Putting Bentgrass Lightning (13%), and SG: Total Nicklaus Designs (13%).

Note: Rahm (who had a big lead before being forced to withdraw), Morikawa (second), and Cantlay (first) were all in the top six of this model last year.

  1. Jon Rahm (+1000)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1100)
  3. Shane Lowry (+2500)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+2200)
  5. Xander Schauffele (+2200)
  6. Jordan Spieth (+2000)
  7. Gary Woodland (+8000)
  8. Alex Noren (+8000)
  9. Max Homa (+4000)
  10. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800)
  11. Mito Pereira (+5500)
  12. Chris Kirk (+6600)
  13. Aaron Wise (+7500)
  14. Collin Morikawa (+2200)
  15. C.T. Pan (+12500)
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2022 Memorial Tournament Best Bets

Viktor Hovland +2500

In order to win at Muirfield Village, it's a necessity to have a ceiling iron week. Viktor Hovland can be inconsistent and at times unpredictable, but throughout his career, he's shown the capability to get scorching hot with his irons. Since the start of the 2021 season, the 24-year-old has gained more than 4.0 strokes on the field on approach in 11 of his 24 measured starts.

Despite having three PGA TOUR victories, Hovland is yet to have his "breakthrough" victory. His wins at the Puerto Rico Open and Mayakoba were severely lacking in field strength, and expectations are high for the Norwegian. Muirfield Village has served as a breakout spot for young stars in the past and would be by far the biggest win of Hovland's career.

In his past 24 rounds, Hovland ranks second in Strokes Gained: Approach, third in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, and 12th in Good Drives Gained.

Hovland is one of the most talented players on TOUR and has seen many of golf's other young stars steal the spotlight this season. His around the green game has impeded his development thus far, but it is a flaw that can be overcome by elite tee to green play. If his game is clicking on all cylinders this week, he has the right skill set to win at Muirfield Village.

Hideki Matsuyama +2800

Matsuyama is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career in 2021-2022. Despite missing a few weeks due to injury, his game is also trending up in recent weeks.

As a defending champion at The Masters, Matsuyama had a solid performance as he finished in 14th place. The following week he finished in third at the Byron Nelson and gained 9.4 strokes on approach, which led the field by almost a full stroke. He was disappointing at the PGA Championship, but that isn't a reason to overlook the overall state of his game at the moment.

Muirfield Village was the site of Matsuyama's first win on TOUR. When analyzing his strengths, it's no surprise that the Japanese star had his breakthrough at Jack's place. Nicklaus designs reward golfers who can get dialed in with long irons, which is an area where Hideki thrives. In his past 24 rounds, Hideki ranks 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

This is a very fair number on an elite player who's playing at a course where he has already proven he can be successful.

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Will Zalatoris +3000

Will Zalatoris thrives in the biggest events on the PGA TOUR schedule. A few weeks ago at the PGA Championship, the 25-year-old came up just short of capturing his first PGA TOUR victory on one of the biggest stages. The Memorial Tournament is a prestigious event that fits the description of an event that Zalatoris should thrive at.

Last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the former Demon Deacon may have experienced a bit of a hangover after his crushing playoff loss the week prior. Before that, he had gained strokes on approach in 13 consecutive measured events on TOUR. His reliable iron game is precisely what makes him such a great fit for Muirfield Village. In his past 24 rounds, Will ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and third in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

It's not a secret that his short misses and unreliable putting stroke have been incredibly costly thus far in his career. His inability to make putts is always a concern, but it may be less of a concern in an event where the scoring doesn't get out of control. Zalatoris should hit enough greens in regulation to make up for his putting woes. The course requires precision off the tee and sharp iron play, making it an ideal breakthrough spot for the young star.

Patrick Reed +6500

After a tough 18 month stretch, Patrick Reed seems to have finally turned a corner. In his past two starts, he's gained 5.0 and 6.5 strokes from tee to green. That may seem like a small feat, but to put it in perspective, Reed had lost strokes from tee to green in an almost unbelievable 14 consecutive events. He just recently ditched his PXG driver, which has seemed to have a positive impact on his game.

The recent form may have come at just the right time for the 31-year-old. Muirfield Village has been a great spot for Reed in his past two trips to the course. He finished 10th at the Memorial Tournament in 2020 and fifth in 2021. Reed ranks 15th in Strokes Gained: Total at Nicklaus designs.

Historically, the mercurial star has done his best work on Bentgrass greens, and we've seen him regain some of that in the past two weeks. He's also excellent on difficult golf courses and gains an average of about a stroke on the field per event in tough events.

There's a chance that Reed's recent form is a mirage, but if it isn't, then Jack's place is a good spot for him to earn his 10th PGA TOUR victory.

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