2022 RBC Heritage Final Round Odds, Picks: Stick With Patrick Cantlay After Subpar Saturday
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay.
2022 RBC Heritage Odds
|Harold Varner III||+500|
|Erik Van Rooyen||+650|
|Mito Guillermo Pereira||+8000|
|Si Woo Kim||+40000|
*Odds via PointsBet, as of Saturday at 10 p.m. ET.
Everyone took advantage of better scoring conditions on Saturday at Harbour Town — well, everyone but the final pairing.
The course played more than two shots under par on the day, but you wouldn’t be able to tell from the leaders. The last tee time combined to shoot just 1-under on the day.
Harold Varner III was the player who took advantage of the scoring conditions the most, putting together an 8-under 63 to take the lead going into the final round. He will be seeking his first PGA TOUR win on Sunday, having struggled to close out on the weekend in the past.
Shane Lowry will play alongside HV3 as he seeks to capitalize on his great play to start the year, but world No. 6 Patrick Cantlay will also be a factor from the penultimate pairing. They are joined by names like Jordan Spieth and Billy Horschel inside the top 10 and all inside of three shots back heading to the final round on Sunday.
It sets up to be a fantastic final round from Hilton Head Island, and the wide-open nature should set us up for some betting opportunities going into Round 4.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, ball-striking and tee-to-green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4
Things didn’t play out as I expected on Saturday — frankly they went quite the opposite. Patrick Cantlay didn’t take advantage of the good scoring conditions in his third round, and he allowed many other players back into the tournament. I’m not wavering though in my prediction that he will be the 2022 RBC Heritage Champion on Sunday, though.
Cantlay has the experience factor of being in this position, right alongside Lowry. Those would be the two players who lead the way for me, just as they did to start the week.
My pick though, is Cantlay, who I think is set to bounce back from the lackluster round on Saturday, after which he still finds himself just one shot short of the lead. He’s my pick to win and while he didn’t make me look good on Saturday, it just set us up for better odds going into Sunday, where I still see the same outcome.
You can get Cantlay at +350 at BetMGM or PointsBet after he was around +150 entering Saturday.
Every time I think Jordan Spieth is ready to contend again, he seems to make a silly mistake that changes my perception of him in the tournament. He did it again on Saturday after he horseshoed a putt from just about a foot away to drop him back to 8-under for the week.
Instead of going into Sunday just two shots back, he’s now three, and he’ll have that looming over him throughout the final round.
I’m still on board with Spieth though as he is really showing signs of getting his game back. He’s now leading the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green on the week and if he can get that magic flatstick rolling, he will be a contender down the back nine on Sunday. I’m buying Spieth in all markets up to and including the win at +2000 on BetMGM.
Sungjae Im is quietly having a good week at Harbour Town following his top-10 finish at the Masters. He hasn’t quite put it all together in order to have his name in contention, but his solid play throughout the tournament has him T22 on the week.
Im is always a player who catches my attention when he shows a little skill and consistency with his ball striking, and he has done that through three rounds at Harbour Town. He’s gaining better than a shot in each metric through 54-holes and I’ll be looking for him to make a run at a top 10, while also being a key piece for me in DFS on Sunday.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 4
I’m a big fan of Harold Varner III as a player and the person he has shown to be on TOUR. He has the talent to win on this stage and just hasn’t gotten it done yet.
My concern for him on Sunday won’t be shown in any numbers, but rather in the gravity of sleeping on a lead and having to come up with the pressure shots to win. I’m putting in a fade on HV3 because we have seen him struggle in a big way in this spot in the past and I’ll simply take a “believe it when I see it” stance on him.
Speaking of players that tend to struggle on Sundays on TOUR, my next fade comes in the form of Tommy Fleetwood. He put together the second-best round of the day on Saturday with a 7-under 64, but the way he got it done, alongside his final round nerves, makes him a fade for me in the final round.
Fleetwood lost strokes to the field on Saturday with his irons and needed the short game to bail him out. It did, over and over again, but with the added pressure on Sunday he isn’t someone I can trust to stay near the top. He simply can’t be field average with his ball striking and expect to contend for his first TOUR win.
I have made my love for Alex Noren very clear this year, but the numbers don’t lie and they makes him a fade for the final round. The Swede lost strokes to the field tee-to-green and ball striking in Round 3, but made up for it with more than two shots gained on the greens.
Noren will need to find his ball-striking game in order to keep his spot inside the top 25 on Sunday and the way he hit it off the tee has me concerned for his ability to sustain that position.
Strokes Gained Data for All Players in Round 3
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