16 Golf Picks for The 3M Open: Outrights, Sleepers, Props & Matchup Bets
Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Sahith Theegala
- Looking for the best golf picks ahead of this week's PGA Tour event?
- Our staff reveals their 16 favorite bets for the 3M Open, which starts on Thursday.
- Find out which favorites and longshots they're betting to win, which props they like and more.
One of the great things about betting on golf is that no two tournaments are the same. Last week, we saw one of the world’s best players beat out a star-studded field in a grueling event at Muirfield Village. This week, we’ll be sweating a very different competition as some of the games biggest heavyweights are taking the week off. That should leave the door wide open for our first true longshot winner during the Return to Golf.
Betting on a tournament like the 3M Open requires a much different strategy compared to gambling on an event like a WGC or a Major Championship. The lack of starpower means that the oddsboard will look funky and bettors are likely better off spreading money around on a few longshots rather than paying up for the chalk.
With that in mind, here are our favorite outright bets, sleeper picks, props and matchups for the 2020 3M Open.
Erik Van Rooyen +3500
Trust me: This won’t be the last time this week that you’ll hear about EVR’s local connection, as the South African went to college at the University of Minnesota, married a Minnesota girl and will be staying with his Minnesota in-laws during the event.
“This one will be special for me, because it is somewhat of a homecoming,” he told Brian Stensaas of the Star Tribune. ”It’s a track that I love, a track that I have so many fond memories of playing with my old teammates.”
The world’s 43rd-ranked player has been a bit all-or-nothing on the PGA TOUR this year in his first full campaign on the U.S. circuit. In seven starts during this calendar year, he’s missed the cut four times, but also has three finishes of 22nd or better, including at last week’s Memorial. I like everything about him this week and think he has what it takes to win this title.
Sam Burns +4500
Not much really catches my eye from an outright perspective this week, but Sam Burns has been playing well over the past month and finished seventh last year, so he’s at least interesting.
Burns may kind of slip under the radar compared to some of the other young guns on the PGA TOUR but he’s got the talent to win. And with many of the stars gearing up for some bigger events on the horizon, this is a good chance for him to take advantage.
Jhonattan Vegas +6600
The guy who intrigues me the most this week is Tommy Fleetwood, who hasn’t played since the COVID-19 shutdown, and last we saw him he had a tough tournament. But he sets up pretty perfectly for Twin Cities, which will really highlight the best drivers of the ball — both distance and accuracy. And Fleetwood is among the best in the world at that skill, though you’ll have to pay a steep price even after the layoff at 17/1.
Let’s go down the board a bit for another interesting guy in Jhonattan Vegas at 66/1 at DraftKings. Again, Total Driving will be the stat I lean on the most this week, and Vegas comes into this tournament top-10 this season in that regard. He’s sixth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. This week may be a free for all given the jumbled field, but if Jhonny is able to play his usual game with his driver, he should be right there.
Bubba Watson +3500
As Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau showed in the inaugural year of this event, bombers should do well at the 3M Open. That should bode well for Bubba, who ranks eighth this season in driving distance and snapped out of his recent skid by finishing 32nd at Memorial
Watson skipped last year’s 3M Open, but TPC Twin Cities is comparable to Innisbrook, Plantation and TPC River Highlands, and considering that he has two victories and six other top-10 finishes at those ballparks, I think he’s a good shout this week.
Sahith Theegala +30000
Oh Sahith, you had me at 300/1.
Remember when everyone went gaga for Will Gordon a few weeks ago after his T-3 result at the Travelers Championship? Well, here’s some news for you: Theegala is a more heralded and decorated young player and will be facing a less competitive field this week.
The reigning winner of the Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus awards, Theegala was ranked as high as third in the world as an amateur. If you don’t think he can finish top-five this week – or maybe even win – then you’re probably still in disbelief that recent college kid Matthew Wolff won here last year.
Derek Ernst +30000
It’s been awhile since Ernst has had an impact on the PGA TOUR, but he’s posted three solid results on the Korn Ferry Tour over the past month.
Outside of the top five or six names, there’s not a lot separating this field from a KFT playoff event so I don’t think it’s crazy to expect his recent form to lead to another solid week on a driver heavy-course, which has always been his strong suit.
Sepp Straka +8000
I really like the calls from my colleagues here and am definitely interested in those guys, particularly in top-20 and DFS markets. Seamus Power was actually the guy I was going to write up, but alas I was slow to the draw behind Collin. I’ll mix it up and list a different guy who isn’t quite as longshot-y but still interesting past the big names.
Sepp Straka is one of the rare guys in this field that has both distance to compete but also is able to keep his balls in the fairway consistently to give himself good second shots, which I think will be the standout skill here at Twin Cities. He had a rough weekend at the Memorial last week, but honestly who didn’t? Prior to that he was inside the top-15 two weeks in a row. Given the course, I think the 27-year-old is undervalued at 80/1.
Seamus Power +30000
The Irishman out of East Tennessee State has had a bit of a power surge recently. Distance off the tee box should be key at the 3M Open and Power lives up to his name by ranking second in this field in recent driving distance behind only Ernst.
Power’s 12th-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic was thanks to a 70% accuracy rate off the tee-box and 79% scramble rate.
Ranking 50th in Strokes Gained: Putting, this is a longshot that should not take himself out of contention on the green.
Harris English Top-20 Finish (+175)
I’ll let Collin speak to Kristoffer Ventura below, which I also love this week. And since Josh is taking Lucas Glover top-20, then I’ll go with the other player I’ve been linking him with on a weekly basis, as English and Glover have been two of the steadiest players in the game lately.
English has finished top-20 in five of his last six starts, all of which came against stronger fields than the one we’ll see this week. The way the PGA TOUR is set up, it rewards players with high highs and low lows more than those who consistently show up, but that doesn’t mean we can’t reward ourselves by banking on these types of guys.
Lucas Glover Top-20 Finish (+125)
Glover has made the cut in all five events since the restart and has been hovering around the top-20 in most outings.
With the field strength taking a dip this week, he should be able to take advantage on a course where he finished seventh last year.
Doc Redman Top-40 Finish (+100)
Doc missed the cut for the first time since the layoff last week at the Memorial, shooting a 76 on both Thursday and Friday. Looking at his data, though, he actually hit 72.2% of his greens, which was one of the strongest marks in the field. The problem was that he put up one of the worst putting performances you’ll see. Man, were those Muirfield greens impossible.
Prior to that outing, though, he had been in incredible form. The youngster isn’t Bryson-level long off the tee, but he’s long enough and importantly is quite consistent with that club. The dude is really talented and fits this course well. I think we’ll see a nice bounceback campaign from and don’t mind paying even money for a top-40 finish.
Kristoffer Ventura Top-20 Finish (+400)
The Oklahoma State product has a couple of Korn Ferry Tour victories under his belt and has impressed in a few PGA TOUR events, including the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he finished T21.
Ventura’s average distance on the 2019 Korn Ferry Tour was 313 yards, so he has enough stick to hang around at TPC Twin Cities.
Better yet, he has the best adjusted score on recent Par 5’s and long-term Par 4’s than anyone in this field, per FantasyLabs.
Matthew Wolff (-110) over Bubba Watson
The defending champion should be feeling some good vibes in his return to TPC Twin Cities, which just happens to intersect with him regaining some form, as he finished T-22 last week and runner-up two weeks before that. This is as much of a Wolff play, though, as a Bubba fade.
I admittedly usually only like Bubba at three tourneys each year — and no, this is not one of ‘em. With no top-30 finishes in his past five starts (and three MCs during that span), it’s tough to think he’ll turn it all around this week.
Paul Casey (+115) over Tommy Fleetwood
Casey is coming off a missed cut last week, but it was due in large part to an 8 he took on a par 3 that still only left him one shot shy of making it to the weekend. He played the other 35 holes at 1-under and looked fairly solid the first two days.
Fleetwood hasn’t played competitively since the restart, so we don’t know where his game is at, so I’ll take the plus-number on Casey and hope that Fleetwood doesn’t show up to this lower-tier event completely dialed in.
Odds via the Westgate SuperBook.
Jhonattan Vegas (-120) over Charley Hoffman
I wrote in my outrights section why I loved Vegas, but I’ll summarize it again here: I think for this course, TPC Twin Cities, strong driving — both accuracy plus distance — will be critical to contend. And Vegas is a great example of that type of golfer.
Hoffman, though, ranks 185th in Total Driving this season, and it’s not really a fluke; he finished 162nd in that stat a season ago. He’s coming off a fine outing at the Workday two weeks ago, but he did almost all of his damage with his short game and irons.
Vegas will have the big edge with the big stick this week, and I think that’ll make a huge difference.
Dustin Johnson (-129) over Brooks Koepka
A gambler has to have a short-term memory to post money on DJ, who had two rounds of 80 to miss the cut at The Memorial.
Despite his terrible performance last week, Johnson is still fresh off a victory at TPC River Highlands, a course similar in nature to TPC Twin Cities. DJ also has top-10 finishes at comparable courses such as Innisbrook and Plantation.
Brooks, who is still battling a knee injury, has not been accurate off the box in recent events. Koepka ranks 144th in ball-striking this season and has fallen from 56th to 93rd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the past couple of weeks.