Best Golf Props for the Valspar Championship: Time to Trust Tiger?
Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports
In this crowded Valspar field, it’s very hard to nail down the winner. I mean, we still gave you a ton of information on the course, geography, stats, and more to improve your chances, but I understand that longshot future bets aren’t for everyone. So, let’s dive into a few head-to-head props and use our FantasyLabs metrics to pick the best bet:
- Adam Hadwin vs. Tiger Woods
- Steve Stricker vs. Patrick Reed
- Matthew Fitzpatrick vs. Kevin Na
Adam Hadwin (-150) over Tiger Woods
Tiger finally won a matchups prop two weeks ago when he finished 12th at the Honda Classic. But he’s matched up against better players this time around, as the betting market has him against Hadwin (-150) and Tony Finau (-200). Hadwin won at this event last year and is hot again: He has two top-10 finishes over his past two events, and he got third a couple months ago at the CareerBuilder. His ball-striking has been especially great, as he’s hitting 66.1 and 69.6 percent of his fairways over his past two tournaments. Tiger, on the other hand, has a Long Term Driving Accuracy mark of 50 percent, and a recent one of just 45.2 percent. I’d love for Tiger to surprise again this week, but Hadwin is quite the competition.
Steve Stricker (+100) over Patrick Reed
Stricker (pictured above) is 51 years old but is still hanging with the best of them on the PGA Tour. This course demands accuracy off the tee, and Strick’s ridiculous 74.9 percent Long Term DA ranks first by a sizable margin. His 74.8 percent recent mark is second in the field. This course is unique in that it is a par 71 but has five par-3s. That helps the older, shorter Stricker, and he also has the benefit of teeing off early Thursday morning before the wind gets bad. Reed goes early as well, but he isn’t nearly as accurate as Stricker.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (-105) vs. Kevin Na
Speaking of avoiding the wind, Fitzpatrick goes out a full hour earlier than Na, who is in one of the later groups after 1 p.m. ET. Fitz is a solid ball-striker and was especially adept at hitting his fairways last week at the WGC-Mexico Championship, nailing 66.1 percent of them. He’s been a bit off the radar playing on the European Tour, but Fitzpatrick has been very solid there, finishing outside the top-20 just once since winning the European Masters. Na, meanwhile, has been very up-and-down of late: He finished second at the Genesis Open but was atrocious at the Phoenix Open, hitting only 35.7 percent of his fairways. Give me the extra hour of lower wind and the solid -105 odds.
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