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PGA Dell Technologies Betting Guide: Don’t Sleep on Justin Rose at TPC Boston

Credit:

Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Rose

  • Dustin Johnson (+850 odds) is the betting favorite at the Dell Technologies Championship, which tees off in Boston on Friday, Aug. 31. He's followed by the defending champ Justin Thomas (10-1) and Brooks Koepka (12-1).
  • Justin Rose missed the cut last week, and his odds (25-1) have dropped far too low for a player of his caliber.
  • I also see some betting value in the mid tier with three golfers.

The FedEx Cup playoffs enter their second week at the familiar TPC Boston for the Dell Technologies Championship.

We get an extra day this week to look over the lines, thanks to Friday start and the traditional Labor Day finish on Monday.

The Tour’s postseason has been whittled down to 100 players, with 98 set to tee it up this week. Only Francesco Molinari and Rickie Fowler are sitting this tournament out. Both have accumulated enough points to take time off and still advance into the next tournament.

Let’s take a look at how I’m handicapping this week’s event.

The Course

TPC Boston has been a paradise for the stars. Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler have won the last three events while six of the past eight champs were 40-1 or less. We usually don’t have to look to far down the board to find the winner here.

Par-5 scoring pops up for me on this track a little more than usual. The 7,216-yard, par-71 course has three par-5s that the players will feast on this week. With the winning score usually reaching the high teens under par, it’s important to take advantage of those easy opportunities.

The Favorites

We’re not seeing too much change at the top of the board.

Dustin Johnson opens as a favorite again at +850. Defending champ Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka are next in line at 10-1 and 12-1, respectively. Rory McIlroy and Jason Day are right behind them at +1600. Then we have Tiger Woods at +1800 and Jordan Spieth at +2000

My card starts just below those top names with Jon Rahm and Justin Rose at 25-1.

Rose is coming off a missed cut, and it’s caused his number to drop, but last week he lost seven strokes with the short game. I’d expect him to get closer to field average, and if he does that, he’ll be capable of competing for the title.

Rahm also had a rough week at the Northern Trust, but I like his ability to score on the par-5s.

He recorded a top-five finish at TPC Boston last year in his first time competing on the course, so there’s something about this place that may fit his eye.

Steven Flynn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Rahm

Mid Tier

In this range, I’m going to go back to Patrick Cantlay yet again. Everything in his game is clicking, and he’s really just an above-average putting week from being a serious threat on Sunday.

He’s still available at +4050 on BookMaker.

I also went down the board quite a bit to find a couple other golfers who have also played really well at times this year. I don’t have any longshots this week, but Gary Woodland (80-1 on MyBookie) and Alex Noren (+9050 on BookMaker) are worth a look at some long odds.

Woodland has had some solid results at TPC Boston, finishing inside the top 20 three years in a row. The short game has been holding Woodland back in recent weeks, so we’ll see if playing a course that fits his eye gets things rolling in his direction.

Noren has been struggling since his win in France earlier in the summer, but his odds are getting too high for me not to take a chance.

There really isn’t much in his game right now that suggests a change in form is coming. This is more of play where I’m backing his overall talent at a number that’s larger than we’ve seen all year and hoping that this is a week it clicks for him.

Longshots

I’m steering clear of the triple-digit guys to win this week. Chris Kirk and Charley Hoffman are the only winners in the past decade to go off at more than 100-1 in the last 10 years.

I am betting a top-20 play on Abraham Ancer at +675 (it’s now down to 11-1). The course is short enough that Ancer won’t be at too much of a disadvantage with his lack of length.

He’s been hit or miss in recent weeks, either finishing inside the top 25 or missing the cut in his past eight starts.

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