Photo credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bubba Watson
- It's easy to get wrapped up in trying to predict which golfers for an event will win or which will outperform expectations.
- But some of the best betting value can be found by identifying "anti-values" -- golfers you bet against.
Oftentimes, golf betting and DFS analysis is centered around which golfers will play well. It makes sense in DFS, of course, as the goal is to roster the best possible lineup — the winner and guys in the top 10.
But betting doesn’t have to be just focused on guys with expected positive value. Sure, it’s fun debating whether Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson or Brooks Koepka are better bets to win, but you’re really splitting hairs at that point.
I think a lot of value can be find in not just looking for values — but finding “anti-values,” or golfers who you want to actively fade with bets.
One such guy for me this week is Bubba Watson. The two-time Masters winner is one of the more unique golfers in the world in that he has his spots. Think Augusta, Riviera or River Highlands.
He’s won multiple times in his career at all of those spots. If he likes a course, he doesn’t just win — he wins again and again.
Pebble Beach — and the U.S. Open specifically — is not one of his spots. He’s played Pebble just twice, missing the cut the first time and finishing 35th in the other.
And look at his recent U.S. Open history: