Mears: Don’t Sleep on These 5 Under-The-Radar U.S. Open Matchup Bets

Jun 12, 2019 07:30 PM EDT

Photo credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kevin Na

  • I created a golf model optimized for the 2019 U.S. Open to identify head-to-head betting opportunities for this week's tournament.
  • Below are my five favorite matchup bets among the longshots in the field, including Kevin Na vs. Bubba Watson.

It can be frustrating betting to-win odds when fields are as big as they are for the U.S. Open. A fun way to bet instead is with head-to-head matchup props.

Below are five of my favorite values for this week’s U.S. Open at Pebble Beach.

Thorbjorn Olesen (-120) over J.B. Holmes

Olesen has struggled lately, finishing inside the top 25 just once so far this year. But that’s mostly all due to poor putting, which will regress at some point. The ball-striking numbers are fine, and one of his weaknesses — driving the ball — will likely be mitigated at the short Pebble Beach.

But really, this head-to-head bet is all about fading Holmes, who has been atrocious lately.

Holmes won the Genesis Open back in February, but has missed seven-of-eight cuts since. He had to withdraw from the Wells Fargo in May and has since been unable to put any good rounds together. Further, Pebble just isn’t a good fit for him, as his strength is gaining strokes off the tee with his distance.

I don’t think Olesen will win or perhaps even top 20; I just think he can sneak a victory over the struggling Holmes. I’d bet this to -130.

Scottie Scheffler (-120) over Matt Jones

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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