The Action Network golf guru Colin Davy built a PGA Championship-specific model that takes into account all the relevant metrics for a player: Overall strokes per round, adjusted for playing conditions and strength of field, plus player history and weather conditions. That model powers our PGA Championship Mega Guide, which you should definitely check out. It’s also able to predict what an accurate matchup prop line should be.
Thankfully, sportsbooks have provided us with loads of PGA Championship props to bet. In this piece, I’m looking at more than 80 matchups from Sportsbook.ag. Lines are current as of Wednesday evening.
I’m posting a table at the bottom of the piece with each listed prop from Sportsbook, Colin’s predicted line, and the difference between the two. But before that, let me go deeper into five that really stand out, per our data. These props are for the duration of the tournament.
Chris Stroud vs. Justin Harding
Real line: Stroud (-130) over Harding (+100)
Model line: Stroud (-245) over Harding (+245)
Model pick: Stroud -130
Some of the most exploitable matchup props are with no-name players. Sportsbook has Stroud, a PGA Tour golfer who got a win in 2017, only a slight -130 favorite over Harding, who plays on the Sunshine Tour in South Africa. Harding has shown some talent there, but the difference between the level of competition is enormous, and Colin’s model suggests the betting market hasn’t properly priced that in. He has Stroud as a huge -245 favorite and thus finds great value in the -130 price tag available.