2022 RBC Canadian Open Odds & Picks: 2 Englishman Who Fit St. George’s

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The PGA TOUR is heading to Toronto to play the RBC Canadian Open to make one final stop before the third major championship of the season. This will mark the first time the Canadian Open has been held since 2019.

The fan experience should be special this week as the course will feature "skyline seats" that are 100 feet above the course overlooking the first and 18th holes.

St. George's Golf and Country Club is a par-70 measuring 7,014 yards and features Bentgrass greens. The course is a tree lined layout and has three par-5s and five par-3s.

The RBC Canadian Open will play host to 156 golfers this week. Five of the top 10 golfers in the world will be teeing it up this week. Notable players include Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sam Burns.

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Past Winners at RBC Canadian Open

• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22)
• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23)
• 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21)
• 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12)
• 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14)*

*The last time this event was held at St. George's.

Five Key Stats for St. George's

Let's take a look at six key metrics for St. George's to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

The best metric to start with is Strokes Gained: Approach. Proficient iron play is a requirement anywhere, and this statistic will help target the hottest golfers. Additionally, St. George's features a good deal of false fronts which makes sharp iron play even more important.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Scottie Scheffler (+25.8) (+900)
2. Shane Lowry (+24.5) (+2000)
3. Cameron Smith (+22.9) (+1400)
4. Rory McIlroy (+18.8) (+1000)
5. Sam Burns (+17.2) (+1400)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

The fairways at St. George's are tight and tree lined. Golfers who possess the ability to hit the ball both long and straight will have an advantage this week.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Rory McIlroy (+19.3) (+1000)
2. Corey Conners (+18.0) (+2200)
3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+15.5) (+2000)
4. Cam Champ (+15.1) (+13000)
5. Tony Finau (+14.6) (+2500)

3. Par 3: 200-225

Four of the five Par 3's at St. George's are between 200 and 225 yards and should play as some of the most difficult holes on the course.

Par 3: 200-225 Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Vaughn Taylor (+9.6) (+25000)
2. Brian Stuard (+5.2) (+25000)
3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.6) (+2000)
4. C.T. Pan (+3.7) (+8000)
5. Patrick Reed (+3.6) (+4500)

4. Strokes Gained: Total (Par 70's Under 7,200 Yards)

Golfers who play shorter Par 70's well should have an advantage at St. George's.

Strokes Gained: Total (Par 70's Under 7,200 Yards) Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Justin Rose (+32.0) (+5000)
2. Rory McIlroy (+31.2) (+1000)
3. Mackenzie Hughes (+27.9) (+7000)
4. Corey Conners (+27.1) (+2200)
5. Harold Varner III (+27.0) (+3500)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

The PGA TOUR has been playing at courses that feature Bentgrass greens in recent weeks, so this statistic will give us a good idea of who is feeling it with the putter.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Rory McIlroy (+19.4) (+1000)
2. Johnson Wagner (+17.7) (+100000)
3. Keith Mitchell (+17.5) (+5000)
4. Mackenzie Hughes (+17.2) (+7000)
5. Justin Rose (+16.5) (+5000)

The RBC Canadian Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (22%), Par 3: 200-225 (11%), Strokes Gained: Total Short Par 70 (21.6%), SG: Putting Bentgrass (18%).

1. Rory McIlroy (+1000)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+900)
3. Shane Lowry (+2000)
4. C.T. Pan (+8000)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000)
6. Corey Conners (+2000)
7. Keith Mitchell (+5000)
8. Justin Rose (+5000)
9. Chris Kirk (+4500)
10. Tyrrell Hatton (+2800)

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2022 RBC Canadian Open Best Bets

Matt Fitzpatrick +2000

Last week, Matt Fitzpatrick missed the cut on the number at the Memorial. Some people may see the dreaded "MC" when checking in on his recent form and be scared off, but not all missed cuts can be treated the same.

In Fitzpatrick's case, it was an extreme putting anomaly that was responsible for his uncharacteristic short week. The Englishman lost a whopping 7.6 strokes putting in two rounds, making it the worst putting performance of his career (in only two rounds!). There were no issues with the rest of his game, as he gained 6.5 strokes from tee to green.

Prior to the Memorial, Fitzpatrick had been playing excellent golf. In his past ten starts, the 27-year-old has seven top-15 finishes. Additionally, the last time Fitz missed a cut was at the RBC Heritage. He went on to finish runner-up at the Wells Fargo the following week.

St. George's should be a perfect fit for Fitzpatrick. Precision will be paramount at this golf course, both off the tee and on approach. Fairways are tree lined and tight, which is the type of setup that Fitzpatrick has thrived on throughout his career. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and has the perfect combination of distance and accuracy to make this track a lot more manageable.

It's no secret that Fitzpatrick has had a difficult time winning on the PGA TOUR. Perhaps leaving the United States for an event north of the border is just what he needs to get over the hump.

Tyrrell Hatton +2800

Prior to taking last week off, Tyrell Hatton had a strong showing at the PGA Championship. He finished in 13th place and gained 3.6 strokes on approach. The iron play has been solid for the Englishman this season, as he has gained strokes on approach in five of his past six measured events and ranks 15th in the field in the category in his past 24 rounds.

A parkland style difficult track should be a perfect course fit for Hatton. He isn't one of the longer players off the tee, so the fact that can lay back and still be successful at St. George's may even the playing field a bit.

The course probably can't be overpowered, and his grinding mentality will undoubtedly bode well. Hatton ranks seventh in the field in Par 3: 200-225, and should be able to gain an advantage on the field on those difficult holes.

Hatton hasn't won on the PGA TOUR since March 2020 but has been a fairly prolific winner worldwide with seven combined wins on DP World Tour and PGA TOUR. With five of the past six Canadian Open champions being non-American, this feels like a good chance for him to get back in the winners circle.

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