2022 RBC Canadian Open Odds & Picks: 2 Englishman Who Fit St. George’s

2022 RBC Canadian Open Odds & Picks: 2 Englishman Who Fit St. George’s article feature image

Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Fitzpatrick.

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2022 RBC Canadian Open Odds

Scottie Scheffler+850
Justin Thomas+900
Rory McIlroy+950
Cameron Smith+1200
Sam Burns+1400
Corey Conners+1600
Shane Lowry+1700
Matthew Fitzpatrick+1800
Tony Finau+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2800
Harold Varner III+3300
Adam Hadwin+4500
Patrick Reed+4500
Sebastian Munoz+4500
Chris Kirk+5000
Jhonattan Vegas+5000
Justin Rose+5000
Keith Mitchell+5000
Brendon Todd+6600
Sahith Theegala+6600
Cheng-Tsung Pan+7000
Mackenzie Hughes+7000
Cameron Champ+8000
Patrick Rodgers+8000
Rasmus Højgaard+8000
Aaron Rai+10000
Adam Long+10000
David Lipsky+10000
Doug Ghim+10000
Dylan Frittelli+10000
Emiliano Grillo+10000
J. J. Spaun+10000
Matt Wallace+10000
Nick Hardy+10000
Pat Perez+10000
Alex Smalley+12500
Danny Willett+12500
Dean Burmester+12500
JT Poston+12500
Mark Hubbard+12500
Nick Taylor+12500
Rory Sabbatini+12500
Stephan Jaeger+12500
Tyler Duncan+12500
Adam Schenk+15000
Adam Svensson+15000
Austin Smotherman+15000
Brandon Wu+15000
Hank Lebioda+15000
John Huh+15000
Martin Laird+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Greyson Sigg+17500
Nate Lashley+17500
Ben Martin+20000
Brandt Snedeker+20000
Carlos Ortiz+20000
Harry Higgs+20000
Joseph Bramlett+20000
Kramer Hickok+20000
Lee Hodges+20000
Luke Donald+20000
Ryan Armour+20000
Scott Piercy+20000
Wyndham Clark+20000
Andrew Novak+25000
Brian Stuard+25000
Callum Tarren+25000
Charley Hoffman+25000
Chase Seiffert+25000
Christopher Gotterup+25000
Danny Lee+25000
Hayden Buckley+25000
Michael Gligic+25000
Peter Malnati+25000
Rafael Cabrera Bello+25000
Ryan Moore+25000
Sam Ryder+25000
Trey Mullinax+25000
Vincent Whaley+25000
Aaron Cockerill+30000
Brice Garnett+30000
Justin Lower+30000
Robert Streb+30000
Roger Sloan+30000
Sung Kang+30000
Wesley Bryan+30000
Matt Every+30000
Dylan Wu+35000
Henrik Norlander+35000
Jonathan Byrd+35000
Paul Barjon+35000
Satoshi Kodaira+35000
Scott Gutschewski+35000
Vaughn Taylor+35000
Albin Choi+40000
Austin Cook+40000
Ben Kohles+40000
Bill Haas+40000
Brandon Hagy+40000
Curtis Thompson+40000
David Lingmerth+40000
David Skinns+40000
Jared Wolfe+40000
Kelly Kraft+40000
Max McGreevy+40000
Sang-Moon Bae+40000
Scott Brown+40000
Sean O'Hair+40000
Trevor Werbylo+40000
Bo Hoag+50000
Bo Van Pelt+50000
Brett Drewitt+50000
Callum Davison+50000
Cameron Percy+50000
Camilo Villegas+50000
David Hearn+50000
Dawie Van Der Walt+50000
Greg Chalmers+50000
Jason Dufner+50000
Jim Herman+50000
Jim Knous+50000
Joshua Creel+50000
Mark Hensby+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Myles Creighton+50000
Nick Watney+50000
Robert Garrigus+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
Seung-yul Noh+50000
Yi Cao+50000
Jared du Toit+75000
Mike Weir+75000
Ben Crane+100000
Brendan Leonard+100000
Darren Andrew Points+100000
Johnny Travale+100000
Johnson Wagner+100000
Jonas Blixt+100000
Joseph Deraney+100000
Max Sekulic+100000
Richard S. Johnson+100000
Ricky Barnes+100000
Stuart MacDonald+100000
Tommy Gainey+100000
Wes Heffernan+100000
William Buhl+100000
Kevin Stadler+100000
Brian Davis+100000
John Merrick+100000
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The PGA TOUR is heading to Toronto to play the RBC Canadian Open to make one final stop before the third major championship of the season. This will mark the first time the Canadian Open has been held since 2019.

The fan experience should be special this week as the course will feature "skyline seats" that are 100 feet above the course overlooking the first and 18th holes.

St. George's Golf and Country Club is a par-70 measuring 7,014 yards and features Bentgrass greens. The course is a tree lined layout and has three par-5s and five par-3s.

The RBC Canadian Open will play host to 156 golfers this week. Five of the top 10 golfers in the world will be teeing it up this week. Notable players include Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sam Burns.

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Past Winners at RBC Canadian Open

  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22)
  • 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23)
  • 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21)
  • 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12)
  • 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14)*

*The last time this event was held at St. George's.

Five Key Stats for St. George's

Let's take a look at six key metrics for St. George's to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

The best metric to start with is Strokes Gained: Approach. Proficient iron play is a requirement anywhere, and this statistic will help target the hottest golfers. Additionally, St. George's features a good deal of false fronts which makes sharp iron play even more important.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+25.8) (+900)
  2. Shane Lowry (+24.5) (+2000)
  3. Cameron Smith (+22.9) (+1400)
  4. Rory McIlroy (+18.8) (+1000)
  5. Sam Burns (+17.2) (+1400)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

The fairways at St. George's are tight and tree lined. Golfers who possess the ability to hit the ball both long and straight will have an advantage this week.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (+19.3) (+1000)
  2. Corey Conners (+18.0) (+2200)
  3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+15.5) (+2000)
  4. Cam Champ (+15.1) (+13000)
  5. Tony Finau (+14.6) (+2500)

3. Par 3: 200-225

Four of the five Par 3's at St. George's are between 200 and 225 yards and should play as some of the most difficult holes on the course.

Par 3: 200-225 Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Vaughn Taylor (+9.6) (+25000)
  2. Brian Stuard (+5.2) (+25000)
  3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.6) (+2000)
  4. C.T. Pan (+3.7) (+8000)
  5. Patrick Reed (+3.6) (+4500)

4. Strokes Gained: Total (Par 70's Under 7,200 Yards)

Golfers who play shorter Par 70's well should have an advantage at St. George's.

Strokes Gained: Total (Par 70's Under 7,200 Yards) Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Justin Rose (+32.0) (+5000)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+31.2) (+1000)
  3. Mackenzie Hughes (+27.9) (+7000)
  4. Corey Conners (+27.1) (+2200)
  5. Harold Varner III (+27.0) (+3500)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

The PGA TOUR has been playing at courses that feature Bentgrass greens in recent weeks, so this statistic will give us a good idea of who is feeling it with the putter.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (+19.4) (+1000)
  2. Johnson Wagner (+17.7) (+100000)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+17.5) (+5000)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+17.2) (+7000)
  5. Justin Rose (+16.5) (+5000)

The RBC Canadian Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (22%), Par 3: 200-225 (11%), Strokes Gained: Total Short Par 70 (21.6%), SG: Putting Bentgrass (18%).

  1. Rory McIlroy (+1000)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+900)
  3. Shane Lowry (+2000)
  4. C.T. Pan (+8000)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000)
  6. Corey Conners (+2000)
  7. Keith Mitchell (+5000)
  8. Justin Rose (+5000)
  9. Chris Kirk (+4500)
  10. Tyrrell Hatton (+2800)
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Matt Fitzpatrick +2000

Last week, Matt Fitzpatrick missed the cut on the number at the Memorial. Some people may see the dreaded "MC" when checking in on his recent form and be scared off, but not all missed cuts can be treated the same.

In Fitzpatrick's case, it was an extreme putting anomaly that was responsible for his uncharacteristic short week. The Englishman lost a whopping 7.6 strokes putting in two rounds, making it the worst putting performance of his career (in only two rounds!). There were no issues with the rest of his game, as he gained 6.5 strokes from tee to green.

Prior to the Memorial, Fitzpatrick had been playing excellent golf. In his past ten starts, the 27-year-old has seven top-15 finishes. Additionally, the last time Fitz missed a cut was at the RBC Heritage. He went on to finish runner-up at the Wells Fargo the following week.

St. George's should be a perfect fit for Fitzpatrick. Precision will be paramount at this golf course, both off the tee and on approach. Fairways are tree lined and tight, which is the type of setup that Fitzpatrick has thrived on throughout his career. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and has the perfect combination of distance and accuracy to make this track a lot more manageable.

It's no secret that Fitzpatrick has had a difficult time winning on the PGA TOUR. Perhaps leaving the United States for an event north of the border is just what he needs to get over the hump.

Tyrrell Hatton +2800

Prior to taking last week off, Tyrell Hatton had a strong showing at the PGA Championship. He finished in 13th place and gained 3.6 strokes on approach. The iron play has been solid for the Englishman this season, as he has gained strokes on approach in five of his past six measured events and ranks 15th in the field in the category in his past 24 rounds.

A parkland style difficult track should be a perfect course fit for Hatton. He isn't one of the longer players off the tee, so the fact that can lay back and still be successful at St. George's may even the playing field a bit.

The course probably can't be overpowered, and his grinding mentality will undoubtedly bode well. Hatton ranks seventh in the field in Par 3: 200-225, and should be able to gain an advantage on the field on those difficult holes.

Hatton hasn't won on the PGA TOUR since March 2020 but has been a fairly prolific winner worldwide with seven combined wins on DP World Tour and PGA TOUR. With five of the past six Canadian Open champions being non-American, this feels like a good chance for him to get back in the winners circle.

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