The Match II Betting Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Tiger & Peyton vs. Phil & Brady

Tiger-Phil II Odds & Picks: Tiger Woods & Peyton Manning vs. Phil Mickelson & Tom Brady

Confused by these odds? Learn more here.

**Link your PointsBet and Action accounts so your Tiger-Phil bets automatically sync over to the app.

Sunday's Champions for Charity: The Match II featuring Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning vs. Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady feels a little bit like the Super Bowl of the current sports dystopia we're living in. Sportsbooks are certainly treating it that way, as bookmakers have been busy over the past week posting a wide variety of prop bets for Sunday's rematch between Tiger and Phil.

We already covered our favorite prop bets, but now is the time to focus on who we're betting to win Sunday's match.

Jason Sobel

The Bet: Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady (+175)

Not only am I counting on Tom Brady to be amped for this, but I also expect Phil Mickelson to be highly motivated to beat Tiger Woods in one of these things yet again, just as he was more motivated in their head-to-head money game 18 months ago. Word is, Lefty has been playing 36 holes a day, getting his game sharp for this one.

There’s been no leak in regard to Tiger – how much he’s playing; how well he’s playing; how healthy he is – but it’s difficult to imagine he’s prepping on the same level as Mickelson. Then there’s the fact that any match of this type is a toss-up – and the smart move is to take the plus-money in any crapshoot situation. Granted, that strategy burned us in the end last week, but it will still keep us ahead more often than not.

Bryan Mears

The Bet: Tiger/Peyton to win (-182)

Any handicapping that likes Phil and Brady relies on only one thing: the motivation angle. In an exhibition, dogs could be undervalued; if people don’t care, take the plus money — so goes the thinking. And it might be more dramatic: Phil is a manacial bettor and competitor, so he might be the one person to care.

I think that narrative is likely overstated and possibly not even true. We have a single-match sample here from last year, and it was a completely different world. We don’t know that Tiger won’t care now, after losing the first match and now playing with a teammate.

So if that angle is overrated, I don’t see a way I’m not backing Tiger and Peyton. They’re simply the superior golfers, and the format sets up better for the favorites than it did last week in skins play with Rory and crew. Peyton is reportedly better than Brady, and I’m not ignoring the fact that the former is retired and playing a lot of golf while the latter is gearing up for a brand new team and season.

But the most important thing is the course, Medalist, which is Tiger’s home course. Who knows how many times he’s played it — hundreds and hundreds, I’d guess — and that’s just a massive advantage. He knows everything about it — where to miss, how to direct Peyton, etc.

He also might be more motivated defending his home course. Given all of those factors, I like Tiger/Peyton at anything -200 or lower.

Reid Fowler

The Bet: Tiger Woods/Peyton Manning (-195)

Laying the -195 juice never feels like 'value.' Still, earlier in the week, this number was at -225 with massive action coming in on Mickelson/Brady, most likely due to all the articles, podcasts, and sports pundits pontificating the value of Team Mickelson at plus-money.

It's understandable with Mickelson besting Tiger in the first match, along with Brady's ultra-competitive nature. Still, Woods is not losing twice to Mickelson. I don't see it happening and here's why: Not only will Woods revel in the limelight of the entire sports world watching, not only is Medalist Golf Club Tiger's club but, he was (and probably still is) hitting it much better than Phil coming into the match.

Over the last 50 rounds on Pete Dye (Medalist designer) designs, Woods ranks 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 19th in SG: Approach-the-Green and 16th in Birdies or Better Gained. On the other hand, Mickelson ranks outside the top-80 in SG: Tee-to-Green and 110th in ball-striking on Dye designs. Tiger recently finished with a ninth, fourth and a win at the ZOZO Championship and while Phil did finish third at the AT&T Pro-Am back in February, he missed the two cuts prior and the two cuts after.

There's not much we can deduce about the Amateurs and how they'll fare in these circumstances. Both are champion competitors, Superbowl winning Quarterbacks and outstanding golfers. Brady does have more champion rings over Manning, but Peyton is playing at a lower handicap index (6.4) over Tom (8.1).

According to former No. 1, Luke Donald, Manning should have the accuracy advantage off the tee over Brady, which should, again, give the nod to Team Tiger/Peyton, especially down the stretch on the back-nine with the modified alternate shot.

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]