Freedman’s Favorite Golf Matchup (Feb. 20): Tiger Woods vs. Bryson DeChambeau at WGC-Mexico

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have a four-game NHL slate to bet on.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

112-92-9, +22.69 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 42-33-2, +5.30 Units
• NHL: 38-39-6, +2.98 Units
• Golf: 3-4-1, -0.50 Units
• NASCAR: 3-2-0. +1.55 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• Exotics: 5-0-0. +2.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite PGA Matchup (Feb. 20): Tiger Woods vs. Bryson DeChambeau at WGC-Mexico

• Tiger Woods: +115
• Bryson DeChambeau: -135

The 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship tees off at Club De Golf Chapultepec on Thursday (Feb. 21, 12:03 p.m. ET). This is a great, no-cut event with almost all of the top golfers in the world.

And the head-to-head matchup between Tiger Woods and Bryson DeChambeau intrigues me.

Action Network Senior Golf Writer Jason Sobel is a fan of Tiger this week.

Tiger is pretty strong in these WGC events. He’s got 18 career wins; the next closest pursuer to that record has five. Yup, pretty strong.

I also think on the heels of a T-15 result last week, he’s ready to take another leap toward that 81st career PGA Tour victory, even if it won’t happen this week.

DeChambeau is in good recent form with top-15 finishes in his five tournaments this year.

But the FantasyLabs PGA Models point to Woods.

Woods wasn't all that impressive at the Farmers Insurance Open (t-20th) in late January, but dating back to September, Woods has more than held his own against DeChambeau in the three tournaments they've both played.

• BMW Championship: 6th (tied) vs. 19th (tied)
• Tour Championship: 1st vs. 19th
• Genesis Open: 15th (tied) vs. 15th (tied)

And over the past 75 weeks, Woods has the superior numbers in a few important metrics.

• Adjusted round score: 67.9 vs. 68.4
• Scrambling: 63.9% vs. 59.3%
• Putts per round: 28.6 vs. 29.0
• Field strength: 96.2% vs. 93.6%

DeChambeau has the edge in driving distance (303.2 yards vs. 302.5) and driving accuracy (62.0% vs. 59.3%), but that edge will be minimized because of the Mexico City elevation (7,800 feet), which will make the 7,345-yard course play much shorter.

Woods is still rounding his way into form, but he tends to be his best in big moments, and with its $10,250,000 purse, the WGC-Mexico Championship is the biggest tournament we've had to this point this year.

Given where they are in their careers and in the season, DeChambeau is probably the better golfer right now, but +115 is too much value to ignore for a guy with Woods' ability.

I’d bet Woods down to +105.

The Pick: Woods (+115)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.