MLB Odds & Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Mariners: Mariners Look to Keep Pace in AL Playoff Race (Saturday, September 11)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Flexen
- Seattle hosts Arizona for the second game of a three-game series this weekend.
- The Mariners are still in the thick of a playoff hunt, while the Diamondbacks have a lost season.
- Kenny Ducey previews the game and explains why he's targeting the total.
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-110 / -110|
|Time||9:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After a hard-fought win over the Diamondbacks on Friday, the Mariners’ quest for the postseason will continue on Saturday when they take on Humberto Castellanos and Arizona, attempting to secure a series win. Seattle will counter with Chris Flexen, who has been excellent this season.
Will the better pitcher win out here, or is there more than meets the eye with these Diamondbacks? Let’s take a further look at this matchup.
The Diamondbacks have been bad lately. How bad? Well, they’ve lost 11 out of 12. While they came pretty close on Friday in a 5-4 defeat, the numbers are pretty damning offensively.
Arizona hasn’t dealt many big blows to opposing pitching over the last two weeks with a league-worst 4.2% barrel rate and a 28.7% hard-hit rate which is the lowest mark by almost 5%. The Diamondbacks’ contact rate sits at a mediocre 75.6% and they’re striking out at a 22% clip. So, it’s not like they’re getting a ton of pitches in play, and when they do they’re not hitting them very hard at all.
At least that’s something that can also be said for Humberto Castellanos. His 33.3% hard-hit rate this year has kept him out of serious trouble, helping him to a 3.65 ERA, but his 16.3% strikeout rate means there have been an influx of balls coming back at the Arizona position players. While a .330 xwOBA on contact is pretty good, against the wrong offense this can be an issue.
While the Mariners have been better than the Diamondbacks offensively, that’s a very low bar. A .710 OPS in the last 14 days is a very pedestrian mark, and a 22.2% strikeout rate is higher than this team would like it to be. The good here is that the Mariners have walked 10.9% of the time, which is an elite figure, but aside from that it’s been tough sledding. The Mariners have made hard contact on just 34.1% of balls in play.
While we can’t exactly wax poetic about the offense right now, let’s talk about how good Chris Flexen has been. The righty has pitcher to a 3.56 ERA this year with just a 5.1% walk rate, forcing hitters to get the ball back in play. While his 39.6% hard-hit rate is far from elite, he’s very effective against the right competition. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in every one of his starts since July began.
With two slumping offenses, I’m not really ready to announce the Mariners will win this game handily, and I’m especially not ready to pay this kind of price to back them. Instead, I’m going to turn to the total.
Castellanos has been a pleasant surprise for the Diamondbacks, and I think against a team which has failed to make hard contact, he should continue to excel. In fact, both of these pitchers rely on soft contact and not strikeouts, which makes this matchup perfect for both of them.
I’m playing the under here, and I’d play it to eight runs.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)