Dodgers vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Find Value on L.A. (Friday, August 26)
Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Anderson #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- The league leading Los Angeles Dodgers face the Miami Marlins in the first game of a four-game set.
- The Dodgers are heavy favorites (-265) on the road, but Tony Sartori sees a way to get value on baseball's best team.
- He breaks down the matchup and his betting pick below.
Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -265 |
| Marlins Odds | +215 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-108/-113) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have the first matchup of this four-game series with the NL East's Miami Marlins hosting the NL West's Los Angeles Dodgers. This contest is the fourth meeting between these two clubs this season, with the Dodgers winning all three of the previous matchups.
Will L.A. dominate once again, or can the Marlins pull off the upset as a large home underdog?
Dodgers' Hot Run Continues
The Dodgers enter this series amidst one of the best stretches this league has seen in recent memory, winning 22 of their last 27 games (81%). Of those 22 wins, 19 have come by at least a two-run margin (86%).
We should expect this domination to continue with left-hander Tyler Anderson slated to take the mound for L.A. Through 23 pitching appearances this season, Anderson is 13-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
Anderson enters this game in particularly good form. Over his last seven starts, Anderson is 4-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
The latest of those starts came against tonight's opponent, a game in which Anderson allowed just one run on five hits through seven innings pitched. Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue for Anderson as he boasts a .278 xwOBA, .224 xBA, and .354 xSLG.
Following Anderson is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Since July 1, the Dodgers' relief pitching ranks third in the league in ERA, first in WHIP, first in BA, third in SLG, first in wOBA, and eighth in FIP.
Because of yesterday's off-day, the entire Dodgers bullpen should be available for this game.
Marlins Offense Coming Up Short
In an opposite fashion than the Dodgers, the Marlins enter this series in poor form. Over their last 24 games, the Marlins have lost 17 times (71%).
The main culprit for these losses has been Miami's horrible performance at the plate. Out of those 17 losses, the Marlins have scored two or fewer runs 12 times (71%).
We should expect this horrific hitting to continue in this matchup as they are slated to go against left-hander Tyler Anderson. In their one game against Anderson this season, Miami lost 2-1.
Through 58 career plate appearances against Anderson, this current Marlins roster possesses a mere .246 xBA, .345 xSLG, and .293 xwOBA. Since July 1, Miami ranks dead-last in the league in all of the following categories when facing left-handed pitchers: BA, SLG, OPS, and wOBA.
Yikes. Going against a strong pitcher in good form and a great bullpen backing him up, we should not expect to see any positive regression from this group.
Dodgers-Marlins Pick
Instead of laying a ridiculous amount of juice on either the Dodgers moneyline or runline, I believe value can be found in specifically fading the Marlins offense. Anderson has been great all year, and he dominated Miami in his lone start against them.
Following Anderson is a fully rested bullpen that continues to prove to be one of the strongest units in the league. Add into the fact that Miami's offense is the worst in baseball, particularly against left-handers, then we should expect them to not light up the scoreboard.
Over the last six meetings between these two clubs, the Marlins have scored two or fewer runs four times (67%).
Pick: Miami Marlins TT u2.5 (-106) | Play up to (-120)
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