Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily column throughout the 2025 baseball season. We've reached the final chapter of the 2025 MLB season with the Dodgers vs. the Blue Jays in the World Series.
The goal for Opening Pitch remains the same for the Fall Classic: Highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite World Series bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every World Series game are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best World Series lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions, expert picks, and preview for the Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 1 on Friday, October 24.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Friday, October 24
Series Futures, Props, and MVP Bets
Before getting into my projections and bets for Friday's World Series Game 1, I wanted to provide my overall series projection and analyze potential futures bets or props for the 2025 World Series, including the MVP market.
I make the Dodgers just north of 70% to win the World Series, after my initial projection had them closer to -210 (67.8% implied) before Game 7 of the ALCS, because I hadn't factored in a potential Shohei Ohtani–Tyler Glasnow piggyback situation for the Dodgers in a potential World Series Game 7.
Instead, I initially projected it more like the anticipated Game 3 matchup between Glasnow and Shane Bieber for Los Angeles, on the road rather than at home.
I will make the Dodgers at least a -130 favorite (56.5% implied) in every game of this series, and higher than 60% to win each of their three home games.
As a result, I show value on the Dodgers' series price, up to -224 (69.1% implied) at a 1% edge compared to my moneyline projection. I would bet their series line if you didn't tail me on the Dodgers to win the World Series (at +200 and +175, respectively) during the NLDS against the Phillies.
And my projection could be conservative. While FanGraphs and OOPSY have the Dodgers at 67-69% to win the series, ATC is at 76%, and Derek Carty's The BAT is at 78%.
Whether you have Dodgers futures or not, I would lay their -1.5 game spread (listed -115 at DraftKings) up to -117, or include their +1.5 game spread (projected -460) as a parlay piece, up to -450.
I also show small edges compared to the best odds on the Dodgers +2.5 games (listed -1100 at DraftKings) and +3.5 Games (listed -3500), but the -1.5 and +1.5 spreads are my two favorite bets — and the largest projected edges — among the potential value propositions.
I had slightly more difficulty finding value in the correct score, exact number of games, and total games over/under markets.
You can find the Dodgers to sweep 4-0 as high as +680 at FanDuel — a tiny edge compared to my projection (+669). Additionally, you can find a break-even price on the Dodgers to win in five (projected +360, listed +360 at FanDuel). Still, I'd prefer Dodgers -1.5 games to either of those potential bets.
You can find similarly small edges on the Under 5.5 Games (projected +133, listed +136 at FanDuel) or for the series to end in four games (projected +547, listed +550 at FanDuel). Still, I'd rather bet the Dodgers to sweep (+680) at the same book, and at a more significant edge, than either of those game totals.
To recap, from a series perspective, I would lay the Dodgers' series price (to -224) — compared to my projected line of -234 — if you don't have any exposure to their futures already, or if you want to add more to your position.
Alternatively, or in addition, you can lay the Dodgers' series spread (-1.5 games) to -117, or take their +1.5 game spread to -450.
Regarding player props and MVP wagers, there are two Dodgers players I'm interested in targeting before Game 1, and potentially a third before Game 2.
Dodgers to win in five games is the likeliest outcome before the series, meaning Blake Snell (+2000 at FanDuel) could end up as the only pitcher with two wins, and if it ends in five games, it's more difficult for hitters to compile offensive stats. Stephen Strasburg (+1950) is the last pitcher to secure the award, with a pair of wins in the 2017 World Series, which went seven games.
Snell has been on a tear since returning from the IL with shoulder inflammation, posting a 2.40 ERA, 2.40 xFIP, 24% K-BB%, and 114 Pitching+ across his final nine regular-season starts, before going up a level in the postseason (21 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 5 BB, 28 K, near 32% K-BB%).
Moreover, the Blue Jays strikeout more (+1.5%) and hit for less power (ISO 15 points lower) against lefties as compared to righties.
Still, if Snell and the Dodgers lose Game 1, Dodgers in six becomes the likeliest series outcome, and I would pivot to Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+4000) in the MVP market, who becomes the likeliest two-game winner from that point forward.
Among the Dodgers' position players, I singled out Max Muncy as both a potential series Home Run Leader and MVP. Muncy is listed third (behind Ohtani and Vlad Guerrero Jr.) for potential series HR leader, and he's the favorite among Dodgers hitters for series RBI leader. Those factors alone should have him higher on the potential MVP leaderboard.
Muncy posted the fourth-highest Pull Air% in baseball this season — the most reliable way for batters to put the ball over the fence, as Isaac Paredes, Cal Raleigh, and Spencer Torkelson were the only hitters who ranked ahead of Muncy by that datapoint, and he finished just ahead of Kyle Schwarber and Jose Ramirez. Moreover, Muncy ranked third in flyball rate this season, ahead of Raleigh and Eugenio Suarez.
Shohei Ohtani and Vlad Guerrero Jr. have more natural power than Muncy, but Muncy has the most reliable swing path in this series to give himself opportunities to put the ball in the seats. The next closest competitor by pulled flyball rate, Mookie Betts, finished 45th by the same metric, and every other hitter in this series ranked 69th (Ernet Clement) or below, including Ohtani (85th) and Guerrero (197th).
Muncy came off the bench in three out of four NLDS games against the Phillies, but should start and bat fifth in every game of the World Series, against an all-right-handed Blue Jays rotation (career 130 wRC+ vs. righties). He has the skillset (career 113 wRC+ vs. lefties) to handle Toronto's three left-handed relievers when they try to play matchups too, despite subpar 2025 splits.
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers World Series Game 1
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -155 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7.5 100o / -120u | +130 |
LHP Blake Snell (LAD) vs. RHP Trey Yesavage (TOR)
The Dodgers will have a starting pitching advantage in each game of this World Series, and Toronto is taking a gamble with rookie Trey Yesavage in Game 1, after presumptive starter Kevin Gausman threw in Game 7 against the Mariners.
Yesavage —the 20th pick in the 2024 draft — worked his way up from A-ball this season and has proven particularly effective at home with his unique arm slot (the highest among starting pitchers). Opponents have found it particularly difficult to adjust to his delivery, posting a .499 OPS the first time through the order against Yesavage.
Unlike the Yankees and Mariners, the Dodgers did have a few extra days at home to prepare for Yesavage (and Gausman) on their Trajekt machine before facing the rookie in Toronto. Still, the Blue Jays delayed the announcement until the Dodgers had traveled to Toronto.
More concerningly, using Yesavage in Game 1 lines him up for Game 5 against Snell in Los Angeles, which — if the game happens — would be his first postseason start on the road after four at home.
Yesavage offers the same three-pitch mix as Kevin Gausman (four-seam, splitter, slider), and the Dodgers excel against all three pitch types, ranking third against fastballs, and sixth against both sliders and splitters on a per-pitch basis this season. Moreover, they rank second among postseason offenses (on a per-pitch basis) against all three pitch types, too.
As I mentioned above, Snell has really taken off since returning from the IL, and appears in career-best form (1.77 xFIP, 31.9% K-BB% in October), which is odd to say for a two-time Cy Young winner. Still, Snell has never been more efficient or pitched so consistently deep into his starts, averaging 6.4 innings and 99.1 pitches across seven starts since September.
He relies on a four-pitch mix — fastball (43%), changeup (24%), curveball (21%), and slider (12%). Toronto ranked between fifth and seventh against all four of these pitch types this season. The Blue Jays have also been the best offense against fastballs, curveballs, and changeups in the postseason.
Still, as I also alluded to above, Toronto's offense both makes less contact and hits for less power against southpaws, as compared to right-handed pitching. Moreover, while a team like the Phillies was able to shut down Ohtani and the Dodgers' offense with their left-handed starters (Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, and Ranger Suarez), the Blue Jays do not have that luxury, with a predominantly right-handed staff.
The Dodgers don't strike out nearly as much as the Blue Jays' other postseason opponents, the Mariners and Yankees.
Toronto made the most contact of any team in baseball, with the lowest strikeout rate on the season, and they ranked second after the trade deadline and fifth in September.
The Dodgers' contact improved as the season went along, ranking 19th on the year, eighth after the trade deadline, and sixth in September. Compare that to the Mariners (24th on the year, 21st post-deadline, 14th in September) and the Yankees (25th on the year, 25th post-deadline, 26th in September). It's going to be much more difficult for the Blue Jays to get strikeouts with runners in scoring position than it has been so far in the postseason.
And while the gap in contact rate narrowed between these teams as the season wore on, the Dodgers' offense continues to offer a better process and more power than Toronto's.
Toronto spoils a ton of pitches, many of which are outside the strike zone — they posted the fifth-highest chase rate this season, whereas the Dodgers posted the third-lowest and rate higher in SEAGER (5th vs. 8th). Moreover, the Dodgers offer advantages in barrel rate (4th vs. 13th), average exit velocity (4th vs. 16th), ISO (2nd vs. 12th), and pulled flyball rate (5th vs. 18th).
The Blue Jays had a defensive advantage over both the Mariners and Yankees, but the Dodgers are a comparably strong defensive club (third in Defensive Runs Saved, 10th in outs Above Average; Toronto fourth and ninth, respectively) and Toronto's defense matters less against a team that can hit the ball out of the park, whereas the Dodgers' defense matters more against an offense merely trying to avoid strikeouts and put the ball in play.
Furthermore, the Blue Jays seem intent on re-inserting Bo Bichette (-12 DRS, -13 OAA) back into their lineup for the World Series. A healthy Bichette ranked among the worst defensive shortstops in MLB, and if he's less than 100%, it could be a significant drag on his team's defense.
Based on pitch mix and splits, the Dodgers lefties — Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy — seem best equipped to handle Yesavage's fastball and splitter, whereas George Springer and Vlad Guerrero Jr. are the best matchups against Snell's offerings.
I'm going to lean on Muncy throughout the series, and may continually bet his props to walk, homer, and drive in a runner. Our Action Labs projection set his Home Run odds at +337 and his RBI line at +191 for Game 1.
I also lean Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) for Yesavage to -150, but would pass on his Outs prop at 14.5.
These clubs had the two worst bullpens on paper coming into the postseason, as the Dodgers finished 19th in xFIP and 9th in K-BB% after the trade deadline, whereas the Blue Jays ranked 15th and 26th, respectively.
Both teams have high-potential arms. The Dodgers ranked second (109 Stuff+) and the Blue Jays 11th (104) by Stuff+ over that same span. But both units still struggle with command, ranking 25th and 29th in Location+, and 8th and 23rd by botERA during that stretch.
You cannot judge all of these pitchers by their full regular-season stats, either. Roki Sasaki (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K) has been a revelation for the Dodgers since moving to the bullpen — he only made two MLB appearances (2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 4 K) as a reliever in September. Conversely, Brendon Little fell off in the second half (3.93 xFIP, 8.3% K-BB%) after a huge first half (3.07 xFIP, 19.8% K-BB%) for the Blue Jays.
The Dodgers' most significant bullpen advantage could be rest; Louis Varland (9), Mason Fluharty (7), Seranthony Dominguez (7), and Jeff Hoffman (6) have compressed their appearances into a shorter timeline than Sasaki, Blake Treinen, or Alex Vesia (7 games each).
And you could argue that, in the aggregate across a seven-game series, this is the weakest pitching staff that the Dodgers will face all postseason, considering they only played two games against the Reds, with Hunter Greene starting one of those games for Cincinnati.
I projected the Dodgers as -149 favorites for Game 1, and I set the total at 7.47 runs.
As a result, I don't project an edge on either side of the moneyline or the total, but I would back the Dodgers in the futures or series spread markets, as discussed above.
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, October 7
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Sides and Totals
- N/A
Game 1 Player Props
- Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+540, 0.05u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
- Max Muncy 1+RBI (+200, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to +175
- Trey Yesavage Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
Futures and Props
- Series Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Games (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -117
- World Series HR Leader: Max Muncy (+1000, 0.1u) at ESPNBet; bet to +700
- World Series MVP: Max Muncy (+3500, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +2000
- World Series MVP: Blake Snell (+2000, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +1500
