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MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for Mariners vs. Angels: Is Seattle Worth a Play as Underdog? (Sunday, July 18)

MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for Mariners vs. Angels: Is Seattle Worth a Play as Underdog? (Sunday, July 18) article feature image

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Angels star Shohei Ohtani.

  • Teams playing pretty well right now go at it Sunday when the Seattle Mariners take on the Los Angeles Angels.
  • Los Angeles, which has won 10 of its last 15 games, enters this meeting as a slight favorite.
  • Kenny Ducey details below why he's backing the Angels to secure another victory.

Mariners vs. Angels Odds

Mariners Odds+115
Angels Odds-125
Over/Under8.5 (-112 / -109)
Time4:07 p.m. ET
Odds as of Sunday afternoon via William Hill.

The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels enter Sunday’s game as they’re beginning to peak again, but only one team will walk away with a series win to set them on the right path entering the second half of the season.

Offensively, Los Angeles has the slight edge, although Seattle is able to counter with a very strong pitcher of its own. With seemingly so little between these teams, is there value in taking the underdog or is there an edge we can find? Let’s see how things might play out in this matchup.

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Mariners Finding Groove After All-Star Break

Seattle is getting hot, entering this affair winner of four games in its last six, and now turn to their exciting young right arm in Logan Gilbert. The Mariners’ No. 4 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, has had his ups and downs this year, but he’s been lights out of late.

Gilbert is coming off a seven-inning scoreless gem against the New York Yankees, where he allowed just one hit and struck out eight hitters. Prior to that, he was an out away from a quality start against the Texas Rangers and pitched a couple scoreless innings against the Chicago White Sox.

Gilbert’s tremendous strikeout-to-walk ratio will be of great use against a team that can kill you with contact like the Angels, and his fastball will play up against a lineup that’s just 18th in weighted runs against the pitch this season.

As for the offense, well, it ranks 25th in wRC+ to left-handed pitching, so a matchup with Patrick Sandoval doesn’t really get you too excited. It also has a pretty lofty 45% ground ball rate against left-handed pitching which, again, doesn’t sound too tasty against a pitch-to-contact lefty.

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Angels Making Things Happen in Latest Run

The Angels have really begun to find their form lately with 10 wins in their last 15 games, and have been carried by some great offensive performances. Los Angeles ranks fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, but its brilliance has been in how the runs have come.

The Angels have just taken down their opponents with death by singles, hitting .296 and walking just 4.2% of the time. Their ISO is a good .197, but the story here has been one of making contact, considering the lineup carries just a 36.4% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks into this one.

Patrick Sandoval will be tasked with shutting down the Mariners, and he’s been surprisingly great for an Angels staff that has dealt with so many injuries in the rotation. His strikeout rate has shot up to 25.4% and he’s done a super job of inducing soft contact with his changeup.

If there’s one bone to pick with him, it’s a 10.3% walk rate, which has led to Sandoval’s mistakes being a bit more costly at times.

Mariners-Angels Pick

The Angels are objectively the better offense at the moment, and the fact Sandoval has been so effective makes life that much more difficult for the Mariners. Their affinity for ground balls against lefties, plus their shortcomings in that split, should do them in significantly in this contest.

In addition to that, Gilbert has been impressive over his last few outings, but a one-hit shutout of the Yankees is hardly anything to write home about these days. I’m a buyer on him long term, but I’m selling here in a bad spot.

Pick: Angels ML (-125)

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