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MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/27: Back Mike Minor on the Road in Seattle?

Credit:

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas Rangers starting pitcher Mike Minor (23).

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the April 27 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Rays-Red Sox and Rangers-Mariners matchups.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Francisco Lindor became the third youngest shortstop ever to reach 100 career home runs last night as Cleveland defeated Houston for the second straight day:

Just for good measure, Lindor added number 101 as insurance in the ninth inning. Cleveland’s offense simply has different energy with Lindor in the middle of things:

Oh yes, Vlad Jr. also made his major league debut and received a rousing standing ovation for pretty much everything that he did on the field — routine or spectacular.

The kid delivered in the ninth inning, with his first career hit, to set up a walk-off win after he was pulled for a pinch runner. Vlad Jr. was the first one out of the dugout ready to celebrate:

Look out, here come the Jays.


Recapping Yesterday’s Model

The model went 1-1 against full-game moneylines and 1-3 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Friday.

My actual picks went 2-2-1, but I was down only 0.15 units for the day.

It was a very positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I lost three cents on the total (-115 to -112) but gained eight cents on the White Sox F5 moneyline (-130 to -138), five cents on the Mets F5 runline (-130 to -135), ten cents on the Cleveland F5 runline (-135 to -145) and twelve cents on their full-game moneyline (+125 to +113)


On Deck for Saturday, April 27

All odds as of Saturday morning (view live odds).

The model recommends four full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5) for Saturday. 

At the time of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Tampa Bay Rays as the full-game plays. It also likes the Marlins and Mets, in addition to the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers, as F5 plays.

I’ve made my stance clear on the Marlins, Orioles, and Royals — I’m simply not interested in playing those teams unless they’re playing one another (or unless the Marlins are throwing Caleb Smith). You can probably also add the Chicago White Sox onto the list of teams that I will consistently pass on going forward.

Let’s start with the Tampa Bay Rays, who I will likely be backing all season against public teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros.

Tampa was swept at home by Boston last weekend, and although this game is basically a coin flip for me on paper (I have the fair odds set at +104 for Tampa Bay, -104 for Boston), you can get nearly 15 to 20 cents of line value on the Rays, in my opinion, simply because they are a less public team.

Boston has the stronger lineup, while Tampa Bay has the elite assembly line bullpen, although Boston did crack Jose Alvarado, Diego Castillo and Chaz Roe last weekend by waiting them out.

There isn’t much difference between starters Charlie Morton and David Price in terms of quality. Morton’s career xwOBA is .301; it was .284 in 2018 with the Astros and is .283 with the Rays this season. Price’s career mark is .300; he was at .312 in 2017 and .314 in 2018 and is at .286 in 2019.

Of note: The Rays might have convinced Morton to throw his curveball even more often than he already was throwing it. Charlie threw his curveball more often than any of his other pitches (29.3%) in 2018, edging out his four-seam fastball (29.2%) and two-seamer (29.1%). In 2019, he’s up to a staggering 35% curveballs:

The Rangers should have a big advantage in the F5 portion of their game in Seattle. Both of these teams have blowup-ready bullpens, so I’ll stick to first half wagering with Mike Minor against Mike Leake.

Minor signed with the Kansas City Royals in 2016 while recovering from a torn labrum that ended up costing him two full seasons. After showing good velocity (95 mph) out of the bullpen in 2017, the Rangers took a chance on him with a three-year deal to move into their rotation.

Minor’s average fastball velocity improved almost every month as a starter in 2018 (from 92.6 mph in April to 93.9 mph in September) and he has maintained those gains into 2019 (93.8 mph) while continuing to shake up his pitch mix to turn over a lineup multiple times (45% four-seam, 26% change-up, 15% curveball, 14% slider) vs. working out of the bullpen (82% combined fastball-slider in 2017).

I’m playing the Mets in the 1st half again, this time on the moneyline at a much shorter price than yesterday, after the Brewers lit up Jacob deGrom.

Noah Syndergaard wasn’t at his best in his last start out in St. Louis, but the Mets pop up as an edge in both portions of the game, but with an F5 win probability 2.5 percent higher than for the full game in my projections.

I also like Under 9.0 runs in Colorado at Atlanta and Under 9.5 runs in Cleveland at Houston. I have those totals projected at 8.4 and 7.9 runs and have seen conflicting professional action on Over 8.5 / Under 9 in Atlanta and Over 9 / Under 9.5 in Houston.

Based on that market movement I have a strong feeling that both of those games will land on 9 and that the odds are in my favor of finishing 1-0-1 on those totals.


Bets (So Far) for April 27

  • New York Mets (-135) F5 Moneyline
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+205) Moneyline
  • Tampa Bay Rays (+125) Game Moneyline
  • Texas Rangers (+102) F5 Moneyline
  • Under 9 (-115), Colorado at Atlanta
  • Under 9.5 (-120), Cleveland at Houston

Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Saturday, April 27.


Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/27: Moneylines & Over/Unders

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.

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