The Miami Marlins (39-46) host the Milwaukee Brewers (48-39) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Florida/Wisconsin.
Find our MLB betting preview and Brewers vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Brewers vs Marlins Prediction
- Brewers vs Marlins pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-130)
Our Brewers vs Marlins best bet is the first five innings (F5) under 4.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Marlins Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -115o / -105u | -115 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -115o / -105u | -105 |
Brewers vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Quinn Priester (MIL) | Stat | RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | W-L | 4-8 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.35/3.70 | ERA /xERA | 6.98/4.91 |
| 3.98/3.81 | FIP / xFIP | 4.69/4.54 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.48 |
| 10.2% | K-BB% | 8.1% |
| 57.8% | GB% | 45.2% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 99 | Location+ | 98 |
Brewers vs Marlins Pick, Best Bets
The Brewers open their road series against the Marlins as slight -115 moneyline favorites, while Miami comes in at -105. The total is set at 8 runs.
This marks Game 1 of the series after the Brewers dropped two of three against the Mets. Still, Milwaukee looked sharp early in that set, taking Game 1 by a 7-2 margin before faltering in Games 2 and 3. The Marlins, meanwhile, open this series after taking two of three from the Twins, including a 4-1 win on Thursday.
Quinn Priester gets the start for the Brewers and enters on the heels of his most dominant MLB outing yet — seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball with a career-high 11 strikeouts. He'll square off against Sandy Alcantara, who is facing the Brewers for the first time since 2022, when he wrapped up back-to-back 200-strikeout seasons.
Backing the F5 Under aligns with Evan Abrams' “Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)” system. This approach focuses on games with F5 totals between 3.5 and 6.5 runs, where the number has moved downward from open to close—a sign of sharp money on the under.
Crucially, it filters for first-five inning lines that remain in the -149 to -120 juice range, ensuring you're not paying a premium. Add in modest wind conditions and no major over/under streaks from either team, and you’ve got a formula for value.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-130)
