The San Diego Padres (46-40) host the Texas Rangers (43-44) on July 4, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CW33.
Find our MLB betting preview and Rangers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Rangers vs Padres Prediction
- Rangers vs Padres pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
Our Rangers vs Padres best bet is under 8.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Padres Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +100 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -120 |
Rangers vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kumar Rocker (TEX) | Stat | RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 6.13/5.55 | ERA /xERA | 3.84/5.59 |
| 4.07/3.77 | FIP / xFIP | 5.40/5.71 |
| 1.54 | WHIP | 1.39 |
| 13.8% | K-BB% | 2.5% |
| 48.8% | GB% | 39.3% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 99 | Location+ | 99 |
Rangers vs Padres Pick, Best Bets
The Rangers enter this series opener as slight +100 underdogs against the Padres (-120), with the total set at 8.5 runs.
Texas is coming off a strong finish to its series against Baltimore, posting back-to-back wins by scores of 10-2 and 6-0 after a high-scoring 10-6 loss in the opener. San Diego, meanwhile, dropped two of three to Philadelphia, losing 5-1 and 4-0 in Games 3 and 1, respectively, while sneaking out a 6-4 win in the middle game.
Kumar Rocker gets the nod for Texas in his first career start against the Padres, while San Diego counters with Randy Vasquez, who has been quietly effective at Petco Park—owning a career 3.19 ERA in 16 starts at home (compared to 4.88 elsewhere).
But the key factor here isn't just the pitching matchup—it's what the market is telling us.
This matchup fits into Evan Abrams’ "Steam Unders with Low OU Support" system, which has uncovered a reliable edge in MLB betting markets. The strategy targets totals between 8 and 10 that see downward movement from open to close—a sign that sharp bettors are backing the under. Crucially, it also filters for games where public action remains heavily on the over, meaning the under is getting less ticket volume but still drawing smart money.
This blend of low-confidence public sentiment and sharp market correction is especially potent in games like this one, where neither team is trending toward wildly high or low totals and the temperature conditions are favorable—not extreme enough to push scoring artificially up or down.
With Vasquez’s strong home numbers, Rocker’s unfamiliarity adding a layer of unpredictability, and steam pushing this total downward while the public leans toward runs, this shapes up as a classic contrarian under spot.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
