For Friday, July 4, I'm on three MLB home run props: George Springer (against the Angels), Jo Adell (against the Blue Jays) and Ronald Acuna Jr (against the Orioles).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Friday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds ā Friday, July 4
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 4
George Springer (+375)
vs. Angels (SP: RHP Kyle Hendricks)
I honestly don't know why Angels starter Kyle Hendricks is still pitching in the MLB at this point. He's been absolutely crushed by right-handed hitters this season, giving up 2.25 HR/9.
Rogers Centre has been great for righty power this season and Springer has been on a tear recently with four homers in the last three games.
The underlying numbers have been some of the best of Springer's career this season.
I have the true odds around 50 points lower today, making this a great EV bet.
Jo Adell (+380)
at Blue Jays (SP: LHP Eric Lauer)
I'm going hard on the Angels righties again today as they are in another great spot.
Blue Jays starter Eric Lauer has been hit hard by righty power this season ā giving up 1.5 HR/9 ā to go along with a 34.7% hard-contact and 55.4% fly-ball rate.
The ballpark is a big upgrade for all the Angels and they aren't priced badly. I have the true odds on Adell around +300.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+475)
vs. Orioles (SP: RHP Charlie Morton)
Ronald Acuna Jr. has been one of the best hitters in the league since coming back from injury, with a 17% barrel rate and good hard-contact and fly-ball numbers.
He gets a matchup against the Orioles' Charlie Morton, who has struggled against righty power but is due for some positive regression ā he grades out as an average matchup for righty power.
The weather should be good for hitting in Atlanta, with temps in the high 80s.
I have the true odds here under +400.
