The Atlanta Braves host the Baltimore Orioles on July 4, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSO.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Braves Prediction
- Orioles vs Braves picks: Under 8.5 -109 | Play to -115
My Orioles vs Braves best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Braves Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8.5 -119o / -102u | +152 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 8.5 -119o / -102u | -187 |
Orioles vs Braves Run Line: Orioles +1.5 (-137); Braves -1.5 (+113)
Orioles vs Braves Totals: 8.5 (O -119/ U -102)
Orioles vs Braves Moneyline: Orioles +152; Braves -187
Orioles vs Braves Best Bet: Under 8.5
Orioles vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Charlie Morton (BAL) | Stat | RHP Spencer Strider (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-7 | W-L | 3-6 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.63/4.15 | ERA /xERA | 3.86/3.80 |
| 4.42/4.11 | FIP / xFIP | 3.56/3.73 |
| 1.57 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 13 | K-BB% | 18.3 |
| 42.5 | GB% | 39.7 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 96 | Location+ | 92 |
Doug Ziefel's Orioles vs Braves Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Streaky Lineup is Costing Them
The Baltimore Orioles come into this series on a downswing as they've lost six of their last 10 and were most recently roughed up by the Texas Rangers earlier this week. Their lineup, filled with young high-upside bats, has proven to be streaky, and their cold stretch at the dish is likely to continue tonight as they'll have to contend with Spencer Strider.
Strider has begun to return to his pre-injury form over his last few outings. In June, he posted a 3.60 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and struck out 42 batters in 35 innings of work.
So, while the Orioles have been above average against righties this season, it's clear Strider is not your average right-hander and is catching this Orioles lineup at the right time. Then, behind Strider, a fresh Atlanta pen should hold the bats quiet in the late innings.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Could Capitalize Facing a Familiar Face
As for the Braves, things are not trending up for them either, as they also come into this matchup off a series loss to the Los Angeles Angels. During that series, all of their offensive output came in one game, which showcases the power upside of this lineup.
However, they get to face an old friend in Charlie Morton. Old Uncle Charlie turned back the clock in June as he posted a 2.88 ERA with 32 strikeouts over five starts, but his 1.40 WHIP in the month is certainly concerning.
I do expect the Braves to capitalize on the traffic created against Morton, but with him projected to go only five innings tonight, the Orioles' bullpen may cool off the Braves' bats.
The Orioles' pen ranks eighth in SIERA as a whole, as nearly every arm out of it has been excellent this season.
Orioles vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
We saw this total open at nine in some spots, and deservedly so, as the weather in Atlanta is hitter-friendly. However, the men on the mound are not. I expect Strider and company to shut down the Orioles' lineup.
On the other side, Morton has the ability to contain the Braves' bats, but the Baltimore bullpen should come in and put out any mid-inning fire. Take the under in this matchup.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line.
Over/Under
Take the under in this matchup.
Orioles vs Braves Betting Trends
